Nate Silver has posted his latest predictions on Obama winning :(

[Happyhippychick]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

It's 73.1%!!!!

The sad face in my OP is for all of the Freeper lurkers.

[LiberalLoner]

1. Woo hoo!

[BumRushDaShow]

2. LOL

You may give some DUers a heart attack.

[Grammy23]

24. It sure didn't do my heart rate a bit of good!!! :((( Some warning, please.

I had seen another poster had put up Nate's numbers a little while ago so I wondered what the hell happened. Thank goodness it was all a misunderstanding. LOL Life is good again and my heart can now go back to its normal rate.

[HERVEPA]

3. This news is over a half day old and has been posted a zillion times.

[Stuckinthebush]

16. ...and get off my lawn!

[Hamlette]

4. these numbers were posted last night, you scared me to death. Bad karma hippie!

[Honeycombe8]

5. Ohhhhh...I was trying to figure out why that was bad. Ha! Yay! nt

[DHelix]

6. Their server always crashes whenever he updates and DU lists the update! LOL

The New York Times needs to start giving this guy more bandwidth. I'd be surprised if there's anything checked more regularly that they're involved with beyond weather after FiveThirtyEight.

[EmeraldCityGrl]

7. Haha...everytime I read a post totally

off the deep end I check the registration date and it is usually Oct.20th 2012 or Sept. 29th 2012.
Must have been the big hire date.

[panAmerican]

8. I am in line...

To teach you some manners!!!!

[sadbear]

9. You had me going there.

Shame!

[mnhtnbb]

10. Nate needs to look at the NC Early voting numbers. No way in hell does Romney hold

81% probability of winning NC.

Registered Dems are OUTVOTING registered Repubs by 50%--which as of this a.m. was 227,000 more Dems have
voted than Repubs.

Registered Dems exceed Registered Repubs in NC by over 800,000. We have a deep well from which
to draw votes all the way to election day--and the Repubs well is gonna' run dry.

I'm waiting to see when Nate will wake up to the FACTS!!!!

[regnaD kciN]

12. As I've written before, I think percentages have a different meaning for Nate...

For example, you or I can look at a re-elect probability of 66.7% and think "that's 2:1 -- those are overwhelming odds." But Nate has written that 65%, for example, is only a "narrow" lead. I have no idea what percentage he would consider a "safe" one. My guess is that his current 73.1% for Obama is just on the borderline of "safe."

[lesgensvontgagner]

23. It's because these are

mean and standard deviation calculations. Any "October surprises" can instantly change the standard deviation to make a Romney win more than plausible.

[uponit7771]

27. ...english please...and wouldn't the same be for Rmoney? tia for your input

[dotymed]

43. Don't be complacent.

No matter what anyone says (faux news says that Obama will win) VOTE!
A lot of repub sites are predicting an Obama victory. IMO, this is so many voters will feel overly confident and not vote.
We have to vote no matter what. If rmoney is elected, America is doomed.

I don't think that Nate is consciously doing this but if we don't vote, his prediction can't come true.

[Dalai_1]

21. Totally agree!

Thank you for continuing to post the numbers!

[oswaldactedalone]

39. Too many Dems in this state

are DINOs who haven't updated their registrations. Also, there's a pretty hefty chunk of Independents here. We've got to keep it close with them to win. Robme could win NC by up to three points, an Obama win will be a half point or less, as it was in '08.

[John2]

44. I

agree with you 100% no matter who claims it looks good for Romney in North Carolina. Now I'm going to take a shot at their expert Mr McDonald. He has pretty good credentials and a PH.D. in Political Science. I merely have a four years Bachelors Degree in Political Science. He does this work for a lining but I'm going to challenge his assertions on these premises:

As stated above, the Democrats have over a 800,000 voter registration advantage on Republicans in North Carolina. Mr NcDonald's assumption is President has ground to make up in the initial early voting stage because Republicans are doing better in early voting even though President Obama still has a significant lead in early voting 51% to 31%. That is an increase of percentage points compared to 2008 at the same time for Republicans but still a significant deficit. The flaw in his theory is more Republicans voting earlier and less maybe voting on Election Day. The increase in Early voting is not any indication of the Republicans registering new voters, however, the statistics do show Democrats are registering new voters. I've given this example before but African American registration for example has increased. Here is the evidence:

On 2008 November 4_ 1,354,976
On 2012 October 27_ 1,479,937

That is an increase of 124,961 new voters

There is also an increase in the Hispanic vote and other category. Some of this vote is also attributed to the unaffiliated vote which applies to that increase. They tend to vote democratic. Mr McDonald also made the state the numbers confirms the Polls which is revealing. Which Polls were he referring to? There are the Republican Polls and there are the Democratic and more Independent Polls which differ from Polls like Rasmussen and Gravis Marketing. I wonder what evidence Mr McDonald has to make such a bold statement?

[renate]

11. you scared me

[Aldo Leopold]

13. Good thing I actually clicked to read your post before throwing my computer through the window!

Looking good! Thanks for posting!

[shireen]

14. tease ...

[Kahuna]

15. FIVE ACROSS THE EYES!!!!!

[Shrike47]

17. I had a bad scare here. Please don't do this again - my heart can't take it.

[hrmjustin]

18. You got me on that one.

[LostinRed]

19. Got me my heart skipped a beat

Nice I doubt there will much change coming in the next two weeks. Unless Trump has another "October Surprise" to spring

[Dalai_1]

20. Scared me! Thank you for the update!

[bushalert]

22. I almost shit myself when I saw the sad face....

[BlueCaliDem]

25. Excellent! Another point added - just as it should be. Forward!

A new grassroots song written by Will.I.Am.

[Cha]

37. Thanks BlueCaliDem.. That is so True!

[CloneClinton]

26. Silver

Nate Silver nailed the election in 2008, so I trust him...

[Pamelajaynn]

28. Erhhhh

U freaked me out. Lol

[Happyhippychick]

29. Sorry everyone! I love you all!

[LeftofObama]

30. Whew!

You made me a little nervous there!

[B Stieg]

31. This means nothing...

...unless we VOTE! (I did, 10 days ago-CA)


Let's all get out on Election Day (or sooner) and make these numbers a reality!


President Barack Obama 2012!

[LynneSin]

34. We might need some extra help in the high population areas of OH and PA

If the urban areas get hit with this storm in a bad way it might keep voters at home.

In Ohio we should encourage voters to get their voting done this weekend.

Pennsylvania doesn't have early voting but if you're near the city maybe help out on election day.

I'm going to let the PA Dems know I have an AWD car and would help with getting voters to the polls.

However, Sandy looks to be moving southward which is good for us!

BTW welcome to DU!

[mstinamotorcity2]

32. I'll take it

But I am really looking for a landslide!!!!Romney's math and poll numbers don't add up like his 5 trillion dollar tax plan. Oh my bag its 4.8 trillion. Sorry he doesn't have a five trillion dollar tax plan. Its really 7 trillion when you add military spennding that he wants to add. That way they will be able to charge the American people $400 for a hammer instead of $200. lol

[LynneSin]

33. I was about ready to do a 'Skittles' on you

and kick your a$$



:loveyah:

[schmice]

35. From the 80's to the low 70's. Yikes.

Looks good but not to jinx anything, I want more reassurance considering what vote counbtring fraud can do. We need to get out the vote. Ride sharing? Anything.

[Cha]

36. You freaked me out!

But, I clicked on anyway which is against my own rules of going on poll threads even happy ones.

So is that up from yesterday?

[LP2K12]

38. Instead of the sad face...

I looked at the recs.

[dchill]

40. And at 7:30 pm, it's 74.4 !

[Clear Blue Sky]

41. Woo hoo! Bet it will be a D landslide...

[RVN VET]

42. Like others here, I was totally freaked out by the sad face!

I like the prediction, of course. It is not just a nice, solid, heart-warming figure, but it comes from a guy who has proven to be more dependable than anyone else in this prediction game.

However, watch the vote in Ohio, Wisconsin, and Virginia. Sure, Obama may have such a wide margin of victory that even the GOP won't be able to steal the election from him. But the senate and house candidates in States such as these may not be so lucky. GOP partisans are going to have an easier time cheating Kane (in Virginia), Tammy Baldwin in WI, and even Sherrod Brown in Ohio out of their elected victories.

So Obama will win, I'm fairly confident of that. But if he doesn't have a majority in either the House or the Senate, where does that put the Nation?

[ywcachieve]

45. Happyhippychick.. you scared me..

I almost did not click on your thread...LOL

[SHRED]

46. the voting machines scare me however

[Logical]

47. The sad face is honestly NOT FUNNY at this point.

[titanicdave]

48. Actually, it is

now 74.4% with Obama winning 295+ electoral votes

[Motown_Johnny]

49. Look at the "Electoral Vote Distribution" chart.

It appears that there is almost no chance, according to that, that President Obama will get less than 270 EV and almost no chance that Rmoney gets to 270.

How and why they still list this as 74.4% when this chart has it as a near certainty I just don't understand.

The information seems to be conflicting.