Now I'm getting a tad bit nervous about PA and Ohio maybe even Michigan.

[LynneSin]

That's going to hit Central PA Wednesday morning and then head Northeast as it cuts thru the rest of PA and into Ohio.

I know last year Central PA got hit hard by Tropical Storm Lee and it actually broke records held for almost 40 years by Hurricane Agnes. Sure the election is still 6 days away but if there is bad flooding and power loss could it hit voter turnout?

Hopefully this thing will bypass Philadelphia, which we need big turnsouts to win Pennsylvania. But from what it looks like it might be heading towards Cleveland area which might hurt turnout in Ohio. And btw that thing could be on path to hit Detroit too.

If everyone who wants to vote votes - Obama wins.

But bad weather can hurt us.

Thoughts?

[onehandle]

1. Six days is plenty of time to clean up. This is an area that can have feet of snow.

And yet keeps functioning. We'll be fine.

The storm will hardly effect Ohio.

[LynneSin]

3. It's a slow storm which means more rain

But I hope you are right

[ClusterFreak]

2. Election is 11 days away.

Storm will be long gone by then...as long as there is no major damage, etc. turnout shouldn't be affected.

[sadbear]

4. Oh yeah, the hurricane.

Sorry about that. I thought you were talking about the election.

[graywarrior]

5. Nah, it's gonna all be good, LynneSin.

[we can do it]

6. I'm not going to let it stop me from canvassing. I've hit over 3000 voter's homes already

[ecstatic]

13. Great! Thank you! nt

[gollygee]

7. We are so used to bad weather

Snow, rain, huge storms that knock out power, whatever. No problem!

[LisaL]

8. OH has been early voting and Obama leads by quite a large margin.

So low turnout on election day is not going to be necessarily bad. PA, on the other hand, doesn't have early voting.

[LynneSin]

11. Hopefully if it goes on the current path it'll cut thru Delaware into Central PA

And miss the bulk of the Philly area.

Delaware doesn't have early voting but is extremely safe democrat. Central PA is more GOP zone.

I know when Lee hit, Harrisburg was down for about 5 days with the severe flooding.

[LisaL]

18. If they have no electricity in the large part of the state, a governor should declare

an emergency and postpone the election. They do have that ability. Hopefully it doesn't come to that... Why couldn't the darn thing just go away from land?

[LynneSin]

23. This is Tom Corbett, he skipped investigating Jerry Sandusky so he could run for governor

Not holding my breath he'd do the right thing with this election.

[BumRushDaShow]

9. Based on that track, Philly is in the bullseye

and by the time it gets west going over the mountains, I would think it might be snow since there's a cold front that will be on the other side with some pretty cold air associated with it.

And since OH has early voting and PA does not, they would still have some time to get out to vote before the worst might get there whereas we have to wait until Nov. 6 here.

[Avalux]

10. Do you see the green dot for 2 am Wed? That's where my mom and dad live.

And my mom's name is Sandy! She doesn't find any humor in it, and they're worried about wind damage and the possibility of a lot of snow with this. At least it's not going to hit on election day.

[LynneSin]

12. Where?

My parents are under that bullseye too - they are the Hershey area.

They were ok during Lee but the road leading to their house was near the Swatara Creek which flooded badly. That's the same creek that killed those 2 Buffalo over at Zoo America.

I hope your family makes it thru ok!

[Avalux]

45. They're in the State College area -

my brother and his family live on a mountain ridge on the other side of Ebensburg....I'm worried about all of them and I keep hoping the storm doesn't veer inland. I hope your family makes it through OK too!!

[MANative]

14. Have to agree that the storm could create some real issues.

We're in Western CT, and got hit real hard with last year's Oct 30 snowstorm. We were without power for eight very long days, and sections of our city were inaccessible and in the dark for seventeen days. It was a freakin' disaster, let me tell you. Hoping CL&P has managed to get its act together this time.

[kentauros]

15. It's gonna cause nervousness no matter what.

However, no one should dismiss any tropical system. It's not your average winter storm! Tropical systems can be devastating, whether there's high winds or not. One of the worst kinds of tropical systems are those that devolve into a tropical depression and then stall on the coast.

For example, Tropical Storm Allison:




It's always best to be prepared for the worst. If it doesn't happen, then you spent a little extra money on food and supplies. When it does happen, then you can share with the neighbors that dismissed it as nothing more than a winter storm and didn't prepare.

[LynneSin]

20. Tropical Storm Lee was no joking matter to the Harrisburg area

that ws the storm that killed 2 bison at Zoo America.

[kentauros]

27. If you're talking about the one in 2011

(there was another one in 2005) then it also killed one person in Mississippi, and did $1.6 billion in damage. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Lee_(2011) )

People don't have to die for a storm to be bad overall, or disrupt an area literally for weeks. Don't dismiss tropical systems. It's for your own good that I reiterate this

[LynneSin]

30. It was the 2011 one.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Lee_(2011)#Pennsylvania

Lee did the same thing Agnes did almost 40 years earlier - it stalled over the area and dumped alot of rain really quickly. That's why they couldn't save the Bison at Zoo America. The flooding happened so quickly that they couldn't get them out in time.

I hope Zoo America is taking precautions this time and getting these larger animals to higher ground.

[kentauros]

34. Usually large organizations like zoos

learn from their experiences. I'm getting the impression on this and other threads, that it takes individual personal experience with tropical storms before people react and prepare. What happens to the rest of us in other parts of the country can't happen to them.

cali points out the devastation from Irene's flooding in another thread. I remember that even though I didn't experience it, and still people dismiss it as "just a rainstorm."

[theKed]

16. if the power's out

i guess we'll just have to use those old timey "paper" ballots. See? Silver lining.

[treestar]

17. Maybe states have laws that would allow for late voting

in such instances. I hope so. It would be wrong for people to lose their right to vote over no power on election day.

[LynneSin]

22. You think Tom Corbett will allow later voting hours in Pennsylvania?

YOu going to be ok? I just stocked up on batteries and bottled water yesterday. Today's map has Sandy making landfall just east of DAFB and the eye is going to go over it. And it looks like it'll take the turnkpike up towards Wilmington.

I stayed at my house during Irene but Irene didn't get this close. If Sandy keeps her path I might just head out of town.

[treestar]

28. I'd look up the laws first

If a Dem operative in PA. If I have time I may look at DE and PA's laws.

[treestar]

50. Delaware

§ 1103. Disaster recovery and continuity of operations.

(a) If paper registration records are lost, destroyed, mutilated or defaced, the affected department or departments shall not replace the records but shall use the State's Election Management System database as the source of voter registration data for the persons whose records were so affected.

(b) The State Election Commissioner, in collaboration with the Department of Technology and Information, shall establish and maintain a disaster recovery program that would provide the State Election Commissioner and the departments of elections immediate access to a duplicate version of the Election Management System and associated databases in event of a disaster that makes the production system unavailable.

(c) The State Election Commissioner and the departments of elections shall no later than January 1, 2008, implement a continuity of operations plan that would permit any of the agencies to continue operations if any of the agencies are denied access to its offices during critical periods.

That's the closest I came so far. I guess that means there is a continuity plan somewhere.

[ieoeja]

19. I was thinking just the opposite.

With Obama leading early voting, and with it easier to get to the polls in urban areas where he has more support, I was thinking it was a shame this storm will be long gone before election day as it would probably help Democrats.

[LisaL]

21. No early voting in most of the states in the direction of that storm.

[treestar]

29. Yeah the rural areas are where the reds are

This reminds me of the big deal made of the hurricane that was going to cancel the R convention.

The forecast has it as a tropical storm by the time it gets to the coast, and it has an abrupt turn to the west that could easily change.

[HopeHoops]

24. Don't worry. It will be gone by 6 Nov.

On Edit: I'M worried about trick-or-treat night. If the weather is bad, I'm going to be stuck with a SHITLOAD of candy, and I know I'll eat it all.

[lynne]

25. The storm will be hitting a week before the election -

- should be plenty of time for things to get back to a degree of normalcy. There could be polling places still without power but that week would give time to identify trouble spots and move polls if necessary. A week should be enough time for people to get out of their houses and be moving about. As long as I can get out of my driveway, I'm there come election day!

[reformist2]

26. Another concern thread!

[treestar]

31. It's also funny about how everything starts to be about the election

as it gets closer.

[GoneOffShore]

36. And rightly so.

Because this is something that can directly effect the re-election of President Obama.

The forecasters models show this storm possibly hitting the mouth of the Delaware Bay coming up the bay and passing over Wilmington, thirty miles south of Philadelphia. It could knock out power in much of southeast Pennsylvania for days.

[LynneSin]

38. To be fair I have never been concerned overall about Obama not winning

We just need to make sure we win Pennsylvania and we will win the election.

[gottavote]

32. Best cure for worry GOTV

Call your friends in swing states, tell them to vote now. Then contact local campaign office. Call, canvas, help out every day. It works off anxiety, is good for your physical and mental health, and works to make your vision come true. Work, don't worry. GOTV GOTV

[jsmirman]

33. Seen and Been Part of Too Many Northeast Dig Outs to Think We Won't Hande What Comes

I was in Massachusetts during that blizzard in either '93 or '94.

It was awesome watching people get the world up and running again and doing our part (we were four strong college kids, and we must have helped push twenty different cars out of the snow and back up and running in one day).

All around us you could see things bustling back to operational.

I'm scared as hell about what this could do, but betting on those states to rebound from that sort of weather impact. People will get it together.

[MadrasT]

35. Dear God, the eye of that is going to go right over my house in Chester County PA.

If it follows this path.

Shit.

I read somewhere yesterday that a biggest concern with the timing of this is that election officials use the week before the election for intense preparation (getting voting machines set up & delivered and all that stuff). If they lose significant time to prepare next week, it could cause problems on Election Day.

Ugh. At this point I am worried about getting slammed *and* about election day.

We already have that asshole Corbett wrecking PA, we don't need Sandy to do it, too.

[progressivebydesign]

42. Well there have been many storms like this that fizzle once they move over land.

It's very possible that this is the case this time. As it spreads and loses the ocean energy, it may calm down quite a bit. That's my hope!

[livetohike]

37. This morning's local news weather person said Pgh. may get a rain snow mix on Tuesday morning

no accumulation. The ground is warm here. It was 80 F. yesterday .

[LynneSin]

39. 11am update-somewhat good news

The path for Sandy adjusted southward just a bit probably hitting between the DE/MD borders. further south this goes means less impact on PA/OH populated areas like Philadelphia and Cleveland!

[kentauros]

40. I hope it's good news!

The problem is that the "wet side" of any tropical system is on the north and east sides. And this storm has a huge span of storm bands out into the Atlantic. That means it will be drawing on all that moisture and turning it into rain, sometimes torrential.

You can look at the water vapor images and loops on this site:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/tropicalwx/satellite.php

[JPZenger]

41. There is NO early voting in PA. Many outdated voting rules.

PA. has some of the most outdated voting rules. No early voting in any form. The only people who can vote by absentee are the invalids and people who need to be out of the county that day. The absentee ballots need to be RECEIVED by the Friday before the election in order to be counted. The storm could screw up the mail to and from voters for those people who do vote absentee - they don't receive their ballots until a few days before they have to be mailed back.

Meanwhile, 35 states have some form of early voting, and many allow any person to vote by absentee.

[BumRushDaShow]

43. We still have State Stores too

despite the rethug promises to privatize. And they want to blame Democrats and "the Union™" but it was their own no-drinking, no-dancing, no-card playing base would rather have it "dry" but tolerates state control, but no way in hell do they want it proliferated.

[MadrasT]

46. Speaking of which...

...I gotta stop by the state store and stock up for the storm.

[CreekDog]

53. I've always thought PA had some of the most ridiculously antiquated voting laws

any thoughts on why they've never been fixed/updated?

[WinkyDink]

55. You know what? We're a Blue state for Presidents. So maybe we're doing just fine, TYVM.

[CreekDog]

56. you don't even have a law about faithless electors

you have antiquated laws about absentee, mail-in and early voting.

maybe you aren't doing just fine and maybe you won't do just fine in the future if your state doesn't deal with this.

[Bake]

44. And now you know what people on the Gulf Coast live with six months out of every year

Cheer up, Lynne, it'll be OK. A little rain, a little wind. The Gulf Coast has lived through a lot worse.

NO EXCUSES FOR NOT VOTING!!!!!!!!!!!!!



Bake

[renie408]

47. Well, you can damn well bet the government response will be HUGE and TIMELY.

[mstinamotorcity2]

48. Don't worry

Its going to be okay. My Mom said the Democratic Party is like the ridiculous cousins who you invite to the party and ask them to rsvp. They don't but you know they're coming for the food and will have the plate with the aluminium foil when they leave. They will be there. Smile. We got this. Just make sure you do your part. give correct information when asked with a reference site, VOTE EARLY so you can be counted, and take someone on Election day to cast their Ballot. You Good. We got this!!!!Don't let fear have you doubting what the real numbers say. If you don't believe me look at the crowds.





http://images.search.yahoo.com/search/images;_ylt=A0PDoQ0jqn1QxRMAaamJzbkF?p=obama%27s+campaign+rallies+2012+crowd+shots&fr=yfp-t-701-1&ei=utf-8&n=30&x=wrt&y=Search

Notice how small Romney's crowds are.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

49. Fortunately, hurricanes are non-partisan and have an equal effect on all.

[StarryNite]

51. They will say it was God's intention...

and my crazy cousin will say that God picked the winner.

[snooper2]

52. In theory if roads are closed for people with single access points, wouldn't rural areas be hit

hardest?

Don't rural folks tend to vote R more than D?

[LynneSin]

54. That's true but....

bad weather tends to affect voters who aren't consistant in voting which unfortunately is democrats.

My hope is the storm path keeps heading further south. Delaware and Maryland are very strong democratic states that it won't affect us very much. And we can win the election without Virginia although I hate to lose that senate seat to George Allen.