If we didn't have Radar and Satellites...

[cthulu2016]

Last edited Fri Oct 26, 2012, 12:43 PM - Edit history (2)

Looking at hurricane Sandy, this one is a lot like the infamous 1938 New England hurricane that killed 700-800 people. But thanks to modern forecasting and communications, exactly the same storm as the 1938 storm would still do massive property damage today, but nowhere near the death toll.

Sandy is a weaker huricaine than 1938—Category 3 vs. predicted category 1 at landfall for Sandy. But, due to an odd confluence of weather, Sandy is expected to feature a similar pressure gradient.

The west edge of Sandy should feature a snow hurricane in places. Not something we see every year. (The hurricane happens to be on course to crash into a big cold front pouring in from Canada.)

In 1938 a storm like this could take people by surprise, and "the Great Hurricane" did, sneaking up north while off in the Atlantic ocean and then suddenly hooking into the northeast coast, up the Connecticut River right into Massachusetts. Many people hit by the "Great Hurricane" didn't even know there was a hurricane in the vicinity.

These computer models of Sandy really make the point. From its position far off-shore it can turn sharply toward anywhere from Virginia to Canada, or off into the Atlantic, skipping land entirely.



Here's the track the 1938 storm, as historically reconstructed:





http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1938_New_England_hurricane

[darkangel218]

1. Its amazing how technology evolved so quikly in the past 100 years.

I wonder why for thousands of years life nothing (much) happened, then out of the sudden everything is moving super fast.. Maybe reverse technology could be the answer?

[AngryOldDem]

4. Jim Cantore on The Weather Channel made the point that weather technology...

...has undergone major, major improvements even since the Perfect Storm of 1991. He said that there are virtually no questions about storm tracks anymore, as soon as the models fall into agreement. They are reliable, and people should act accordingly.

[theKed]

8. Thats a whole discussion thread to itself

But there's a few key things that compound and multiply each other

1 - Population volume, more specifically more volume of scientists working and researching. As our population has ballooned over the ages the number of scientists and scholars as a percentage of population has exploded with it.

2 - Technologies that enhance knowledge and research. Before writing, everything we learned was passed on orally. It was still a slow process to copy books, until moveable type presses came around. Then the industrial revolution, with machines to do the printing. Now with computers, the sum total of human knowledge can be accessed digitally, processed and parsed at ridiculous rates.

3 - Social acceptance. As the greater society has embraced science and backed away from religious interference in learning, more people are exposed to science and are able to pursue it as they see fit.

So a larger percentage of people, the population of which is expanding greater each year, with technologies designed for the purpose of multiplying our ability to learn...that's why there is such a massive geometric progression in our knowledge

[darkangel218]

11. Those are very good points. I never thought about them

They all make sense, especially the population growth and the social acceptance of science.

Thank you for your post x now I can put my alien teachnology speculations to rest for a while

[theKed]

12. thats a factor, too

...but we don't talk about that one ... >_>

[absyntheminded]

13. LOL!

We don't talk about that one! Nice. Like your succinct scientific evolutionary response above, but you left out "*except for the GOP"


Katrina hit Nawhlins because of the ghey?

[theKed]

14. It was implied

We're all aware of the republican desire to regress into a society where religious faith trumps scientific learning. In fact, they push against all of my points, except for population growth (which, without contraceptives and abortions, they are all for). They stigmatise science and education, discouraging people to go into the field at all, what few do decide to must work within the constraints of religiosity.

In some particular ways, it's a similar cultural terrain to the European dark ages...learning dictated by the church, those who opposed it publicly shamed or killed, science often mocked as sorcery and witchcraft. Europe was lucky in that Islam and the Middle East in general preserved much of the knowledge and culture pre-dating that time. I doubt they'd do the same for us this time around.

[Ichingcarpenter]

2. The Storm could be another mega disaster

I hope it misses .

GOP cut crucial weather satellites with fierce hurricane season looming



Climate Progress reported in March that NOAA said GOP’s proposed satellite funding cuts could halve accuracy of precipitation forecasts. CAP’s Kiley Kroh updates the story.

Earlier this year, Congressional Republicans decided accurate weather forecasting and hurricane tracking were services the American people could live without. The GOP-sponsored 2011 spending bill slashed the budget for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration, slashing $700 million targeted for an overhaul of the nation’s aging environmental satellite system. NOAA scientists have stated unequivocally the existing satellites will fail and if they aren’t replaced, the agency’s ability to provide life-saving information to the American people will be compromised. Jane Lubchenco, NOAA administrator, told reporters yesterday that the agency’s hurricane outlook last year was “spot-on” and cautioned that “not having satellites and applying their latest capabilities could spell disaster“:

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/05/23/208154/gop-cut-crucial-weather-satellites-with-fierce-hurricane-season-looming/

[OffWithTheirHeads]

3. Now I understand why Rapepublicans want to de fund things like NOHAA

They are fucking nuts!

[leveymg]

5. Not nuts - Disaster Capitalism. The GOOP all own construction companies and defense stock.

Just self-interest. The worse things get for most of us, the more they profit.

[HopeHoops]

6. Damn similar routes. Let's hope it misses us.

[cthulu2016]

7. .

[Raven]

9. My dogs sense these storms 24 hours before

they hit. One of them constantly looks skyward and gets under the desk. I believe they sense the pressure change.

[HappyMe]

10. My dog used to do the same.

There is a press conference on now with the gov of CT. He says to take this seriously. Get ready.