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highplainsdem

(49,020 posts)
Thu Oct 25, 2012, 11:50 PM Oct 2012

Nate Silver just updated his forecast for 2nd time today - now at 73.1% chance of Obama winning

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

That's up 1.1% from his update earlier this evening.

From his Twitter account starting an hour ago:

https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight

Sorry, we missed PPP's VA poll and Rasmussen's AZ poll. Re-running tonight's numbers with those included.

Obama 73% to win w/ those polls added. Bottom line simple: Romney is trailing - slightly - in tipping point states. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com

That CO and VA are still toss-ups makes Obama's map more resilient if something goes wrong in OH. Model still bearish on him in FL, however.
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Nate Silver just updated his forecast for 2nd time today - now at 73.1% chance of Obama winning (Original Post) highplainsdem Oct 2012 OP
Kick! sarcasmo Oct 2012 #1
GO BAMA! applegrove Oct 2012 #2
Everyone should K&R this! Logical Oct 2012 #3
WooooooHooooo *~*~ Go dems!.Looks like we'll keep the Senate also! Astazia Oct 2012 #4
75.6% in the now cast and currently 72% in the Nov 6 cast. n/t BainsBane Oct 2012 #5
It's outta control! flamingdem Oct 2012 #6
Hay Nate mick063 Oct 2012 #7
Best Laugh of the day, Thanks!!! EarthGurl2012 Oct 2012 #10
Surprised those two additional polls moved it that much. pointsoflight Oct 2012 #8
I wonder if anyone has looked at the forcast of Hurricane Sandy. And the impact it might Nov 6 democrat in dixie Oct 2012 #9
We are just praying that it is not as bad when it his here in nyc and surrounding areas. hrmjustin Oct 2012 #11
Ohio up to 50% tipping point state VA, NEV, WI 9% EACH,IOWA7% Tribetime Oct 2012 #12
 

mick063

(2,424 posts)
7. Hay Nate
Fri Oct 26, 2012, 12:23 AM
Oct 2012

Sorry but you gonna have to run it a fourth time.

Meat Loaf just made a late night appearance.

pointsoflight

(1,372 posts)
8. Surprised those two additional polls moved it that much.
Fri Oct 26, 2012, 12:29 AM
Oct 2012

Have to think it's because of the PPP of VA. It shows how dramatically the picture changes if VA becomes more solidly on the blue side--gives many more paths to victory and makes a number of other states less critical.

9. I wonder if anyone has looked at the forcast of Hurricane Sandy. And the impact it might Nov 6
Fri Oct 26, 2012, 12:45 AM
Oct 2012

They are calling it the perfect storm, so what if that perfect storm has left the northeastern coast with no power on election day.
Has anyone thought of that? I also hear Sandy is picking up strength.

 

hrmjustin

(71,265 posts)
11. We are just praying that it is not as bad when it his here in nyc and surrounding areas.
Fri Oct 26, 2012, 12:48 AM
Oct 2012

We may have big problems here.

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