Fun with www.270towin.com

[Bucky]

I got an Obama win with Romney still managing to take Ohio, Florida, and Virginia. Up till now I've been saying Obama needs to win one of those three to get reelected. But even if Romney wins all three (pfff, as if), Obama can still hop over the top by taking Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Iowa. Right now, those seem like fairly safe bets. Currently the polls show...

CO- O 50% to R 46%
IA - O 48% to R 47% (but Iowa Dems have a legendary ground game)
NV- O 51% to R 47%
NM- O 51% to R 41%

So that's my spin at how good we got it. Romney's gotta sweep the four big swing states, but only leads in poll aggregates in North Carolina (by 2 points). His path to 270 involves a whole lot of last minute deciders buying his bullshit.

<=== [font size="1"]NB: this is NOT a prediction, so I made Romney states brown. [/font]

DU Challenge: go to 270towin.com and post either (1) your actual predictions or (2) your demonstrations of how close Obama is to strapping this dog down and driving off to a second term

[OhZone]

1. I'll allow this! lulz nt

[Bucky]

3. Thanks for your permission.

DIdn't know I needed it. I'll check with you before posting next time.

[OhZone]

5. lulz oh-k! :D nt

[Motown_Johnny]

2. New Hampshire isn't a sure thing and could flip those results

if it went red.

[maveric56]

4. How blue is Iowa?

This is actually scaring the shit out of me. I have Rmoney-272, Obama 266!!!

[DarthDem]

7. Concerned?

The president will win Iowa. You can stand down.

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

6. CO?

I see Obama wrapping up OH. Naturally, the media would never talk about that.

[Panasonic]

8. Ok. Here's mine.

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=STh

And yes, I'm *THAT* bold.

And the better news, it's going to head that way in '16 and '20, even the off-years.

[cthulu2016]

13. There will be no EV from NE

NE was redistricted after 2008 to prevnt such a thing ever happening again.

[one_voice]

9. I don't know how to put...

the picture so here's the link...

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=STx

[DarthDem]

10. Right

The way I've been thinking of it is Obama winning the Kerry-Gore combination states (meaning any state won by either Gore or Kerry - - covers both IA and NH), plus holding Nevada, then needing one more state, which can be any state. Ohio, Colorado, Virginia, Florida, or North Carolina.

I think Obama will win Ohio, Colorado, and Virginia, and he might win Florida too; there's still time left to make more educated guesses. I used to live in North Carolina and understand how tough it is for non-DINO Dems down there, but I'm not giving up on NC this year either.

[Motown_Johnny]

11. I am giving Rmoney CO, FL and NC and still it is Obama 294-244

Even if you throw in VA it is still Obama 281-257

You need to work pretty hard to get Rmoney to 270

[Panasonic]

14. Colorado voters plead with Motown_Johnny and ask that he does not give the state to Rmoney

We are +3 Obama at this time, thank you, and our GOTV is working overtime to get the early votes, and I have just emailed to the Denver Democrats asking if they need volunteer drivers.

[cthulu2016]

12. Not a prediction, but what I call the VA scenario

Just offered to demonstrate the way VA + NH = OH

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=STK