OK poll watchers/addicts, 538 followers - let's predict...

[NRaleighLiberal]

Nate typically posts his new numbers post 10 PM EST each night - sometimes even past midnight.

Current forecast is 290.8 electoral votes, 71% chance to win (forecast), 74.1% Nowcast.

We can see the trend....let's make some guesses.

My prediction for the Nov 6 forecast that will post later tonight is 292.5 elect. votes, 73.5% chance, 76% Nowcast. (so continuing modest movement in the right direction.)

anyone else want to play?

[BainsBane]

1. Why do you think it will go up today?

My guess, based on today's poll, is Nate will nudge it down very slightly--not enough to worry about.

[NRaleighLiberal]

2. just a hunch. let's see!

[BainsBane]

3. I hope you're right! n/t

[Tx4obama]

4. 'MY' prediction Obama: 333 :) n/t

[NRaleighLiberal]

7. just by later tonight's report? that's superbly optimistic!

[erik satie]

9. My prediction for Nov 6

[Tx4obama]

10. I wonder what the highest number in history a president got. Anyone know? n/t

[erik satie]

11. Reagan 1984

525 EVs

[Tx4obama]

13. Thanks for posting and ...

Welcome to DU

[Tx4obama]

12. Reagan: 525

I should have done a search before asking the question above

Answer:

In 1984, Ronald Reagan was elected with 525 electoral votes, the largest number ever won by any president ever. This was also the largest percentage of possible electoral votes ever won. However, the electoral vote system was changed in 1872, so the number of electors won by presidents elected prior to 1872 cannot be compared perfectly with the current system.

Ronald Reagan received the most Electoral College votes in history, with 525 in 1984.

In the 1936 election, Roosevelt won re-election over the Republican candidate, Alfred M. Landon, sweeping every state except Maine and Vermont. The electoral vote was 523 for Roosevelt to 8 for Landon

Here is a great site to answer all those questions: http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/votes/votes_by_state.html

According to that site, in 1984 Reagan did have 525 votes and FDR had 523 (not 532) in his second term in 1936. Nixon had 520 in 1972. In the 1900's alone, presidents had electoral votes in the 400's 11 times.

http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Which_president_has_gotten_the_most_electoral_votes_in_history

[nadinbrzezinski]

5. I think we will get all the way to 293

and that is based on the Gallup approval (53%) and several state polls.

[NRaleighLiberal]

18. good job! you and I both got really close! (see my end post in this thread)

[nadinbrzezinski]

21. I did not pay attetnion to polls over the summer

Beh... but after Sept 1st, yup, I even got the Gallup and a few other national and state polls on the phone.

Check them every three to four days, unless there is something major.

(I confess, I have no time for that... just spent the day writing stories on Poway boards and going more deeply into Poway Unified politics)

[reformist2]

6. 347 evs. 53% popular vote. Late-deciders will break for the incumbent.

[NRaleighLiberal]

8. I am looking for guesses for tonight, not the overall final total.

[Jennicut]

14. I am very, very cautious.

294 to 244 would be my most optimistic. That includes WI, VA, IA, OH, NV and NH. Not sure we can get CO but it is close based on PPP and NYT/Marist Polls today.

My least optimistic is 271 to 267 with OH, NV, and WI.

[NRaleighLiberal]

15. OK, folks - I don't think my game is working - lots of predictions for election day, I am looking

for just what 538 will show tonight....maybe not as many did daily watches of 538 than I thought!

[BainsBane]

16. My guess is the Nov. 6 cast will drop to 70

between 69.7-70.3

[NRaleighLiberal]

17. OK - how did I do? Nov 6 forecast - 292.7, 72% (wow, I'm good...er, lucky!)

Now cast is 75.6% (I should go play the lottery!

[BainsBane]

19. Congrats!

I'm very glad to have been wrong.

[NRaleighLiberal]

20. if we can truly now just extrapolate on the same slope, hits near 100 on election day!