The ‘momentum’ myth

[babylonsister]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/the-momentum-myth/2012/10/25/f7fc67a6-1eaf-11e2-8817-41b9a7aaabc7_blog.html#pagebreak

The ‘momentum’ myth
By Jonathan Bernstein


Republicans have been pushing hard this week to convince people that Mitt Romney is wrapping up the presidential election. Since he’s not actually, well, leading, Romney partisans have relied on the idea that Romney has momentum: Even if he isn’t actually ahead yet, he is certain to take a commanding lead any minute now.

But that “momentum” appears to have been entirely an invention of Republican spinners. It’s certainly true that Romney made impressive gains on Barack Obama in roughly the first week of October, probably in most part as a consequence of the first debate. But after that, the contest has been almost completely flat. For example, the Pollster trend line shows the race a dead heat on October 8 — and that since then, any movement has been only by small fractions of a percentage point. Nate Silver’s “nowcast” bottomed out for the president on October 12, and since then he’s recovered quite a bit. There’s simply nothing in the last twelve days to indicate movement towards Romney.

snip//

The real question isn’t so much whether Romney — or Obama — has “momentum,” but whether there is any such animal when it comes to presidential elections. For the most part, it’s just a term campaigns use to excite their partisans and to fool gullible reporters into writing stories that create the illusion of momentum that never existed in the first place.

[libtodeath]

1. RW media needing a horse race plus

their desire to see mitt the liar elected.

President Obama will win a historical landslide.

[BumRushDaShow]

2. K&R

[rso]

3. myth

Voting early on Saturday for Obama.

[Kurovski]

4. Well I'm certain Romney has three bowel movements a day.

We have to assume that's what they're talking about.

I think that's implied.

[Hutzpa]

5. Mitt Romney has only one ground game or momentum if you wanna call it that

and that is Chuckie Tee -- The Angle man.

[socialaidem]

6. I mean, what are you expecting them to say "Our campaign is failing"?

[stopbush]

7. Driven by media who are desperate to get every ad $ out of the campaigns that they can.

Horse race = huge spending.

Election pretty much decided = less $ spent on TV ads.

[reformist2]

8. Mitt had a 3-4 point bump in the week after the first debate, and that was it. And now it's gone.

[rock]

9. After losing three debates in a row where did this momentum come from?

[sadbear]

10. Since I'm not a star member...

an ad featuring a picture of Karl Rove accompanied the OP for me.