"House will stay Republican" (John Harwood) and Sam Stein nods in agreement

[Skidmore]

and both launch into a contest to see who could say that the President would have to reassess his governing strategy in a second term because the Senate would also have the same leader as it has for the past 4 years. This was just on Alex Wagner's show. Why the hell are we even trying? Messrs. Harwood and Stein see us sliding into Deja Vu Land where Boehner and McConnell crap all over the nation for yet another round. I kind of expected this from Harwood but Sam Stein just nodding in agreement pissed me off.

Am I just overreacting or is this now the conventional wisdom beyond the gaseous bubble of the Beltway?

[joycejnr]

1. Could be. My main problem with the Obama campaign has been the lack of criticism of the GOP...

...Roosevelt and JFK used biting criticism of the Repugs to help insure majorities in Congress and the State legislatures. It wasn't 100% effective, but the ratios might have been worse without it.

[nadinbrzezinski]

2. Except it is not the conventional thinking

the Dems think they have a very good shot, and that started back in February. The math is actually with the dems on this.

But as they say, if the Dems retake it, it will be by much narrower margins than they told the press even back then.

If the Rs keep it, it will be by a very narrow margin as well. We are taking 5 seats here, my personal read.

but there are way too many seats that are actually in play that should not. Bachmann's seat is in play, Cantor is all but safe. Walsh, my back yard, Bilbray is behind Peters in the most recent poll, by five points, (outside MOE) but the other two polls have them within the MOE. It is things like this.

[leftofcool]

3. I suspect rethugs will retain the house, however

we are close to having a Senate that is filibuster proof. If we can get rid of the tea party thugs in the Senate, things will change a lot.

[librechik]

5. 2014 --we have to make sure Obama doesn't get Clintonized

into a 4 yr lame duck session. GOTV now, and GOTV in 2014!

[RomneyLies]

6. No way in hell we are anywhere near a filibuster proof Senate

That's 60 damned seats!

AT BEST, we will have 54.

[TeamPooka]

4. so you are beating up Sam for having his informed opinion? whatever

[onenote]

7. Yes, the republicans retaining control over the House is conventional wisdom outside the beltway

I've yet to see any credible evidence that we can take back the House. Wish I could say otherwise.

[Egalitarian Thug]

8. A stunning upset shift is always possible in the House races, but it is not likely.

There are just too many people out here that the Democrats have failed to give reason to trust them. "Trillions for Wall Street, bills for Main Street" was devastating and we're going to feel the consequences of that mistake for a long time.

[WilliamPitt]

9. The House is almost certainly going to stay Republican

They have a 25-seat advantage.

BUT.

It is entirely possible that several of the worst Teabagging brainfarts who came in after 2010 will be shown the door.

[LynneSin]

12. From what I've been reading it's going to be awfully darn close after the election is done

But Dems will come up short.

But if we can get rid of some of these awful Teabaggers that's a good step forward. I don't think ANY of those freshmen representatives did anything of note in the 2 years they've served other than to collect their taxpayer-paid salaries and benefits.

[Panasonic]

10. Unfortunately they are both very very wrong.

It will be a Democratic +45 takeover.

Teabaggers are being purged out of the House after 2 years of nothing but bullshit.

[JNelson6563]

11. I disagree.

Has Congress ever been less popular? Less effective?

We need economic growth and they voted how many times to repeal Obamacare?

I know we are likely to flip one of the largest districts in the country here in MI (CD 1) and we're working hard to do so.

I think many are disenchanted with the teabaggers and will vote many of them out this year.

Obama's got coat-tails and many candidates are benefiting from that.

Julie--outside of the bubble in a place called "reality"