OH Early Voting - From Free Republic forum - THOUGHTS?

[piechartking]

Can someone with knowledge of OH early voting statistics make heads or tails of this? I got this from Free Republic (of course the bonehead doesn't have link or source), but these are the numbers he is choosing to run with about OH early voting.

I thought it might be fun to see what a Repub's view was on early voting, and it seems he is positive. Naturally, I hope he is vastly mis-interpreting the numbers in his ignorance, but I don't know enough to compare to 2008 or 2004. Help! STARTS BELOW:

"First Ohio, as of tonite, per the counties that are reporting both 2008 and 2012 information (53 out of 88 counties), Republicans are only 3000 behind their TOTAL ballot requests for 2008. And there are two weeks left. Repeat only 3000.

Dems OTH are 120,000 BEHIND their 2008 totals. I sense a disruption in the force here. Many dems are sitting this one out is my best guess. Cuyahoga has come through for them (high AA population) but Franklin has not (college population). Other counties have not come through for them either as best I can tell: Licking, Lucas, Montgomery, Pickaway, Richland, Ross, Stark, Summit, Trunbull, Tuscarawas, Union, Wayne. Why these counties? Possibly bitter clingers but just my guess - others can elucidate me on this. But the fact remains other than Cuyahoga, they are severely underperforming their 2008 totals.

A couple of caveats again: we are missing 35 counties that have incomplete info (most of these are repub leaning but a couple are dem also like Lorain and Mahoning). We need all the county information for both this year and 2008 for all counties to have a complete picture. Nonetheless, with 53 counties, the trend is real.

Also for Cuyahoga, republicans are overperforming also. They are 15,000 ahead of 2008 - incredible numbers! Because if we keep it relatively close in Cuyahoga, the rest of the state seems to be falling into place. Right now, dems have a lead in Cuyahoga of 80,000 and my best educated guess right now is they end up with 180,000 lead on election nite there. That will not be enough to overcome the rest of the state. We keep it under 200,000 here - we win plain and simple. 200k-240k difference: I think we are slightly ahead. Over 240k, I think we would be slightly behind."

[PCIntern]

1. Wow...just wow...

I'm speechless.

[leftynyc]

2. Simple rule

Anything from that site is crap. These are the same losers who are convinced if sarah palin was running, she'd be slaughtering Pres Obama. They don't live in the same reality as the rest of us. Ohio is going blue. Ignore them.

[piechartking]

3. I get that they are idiots. However...

It didn't strike me that he was making the numbers up (But who knows).

The only reason this concerns me, and I'm not trying to panic anyone else, is that with Iowa, with Nevada, with North Carolina, etc., I've kinda grown accustomed to the numbers and stats updates daily from these states. Haven't seen that from Ohio.

Most of what I've seen comes in the form of 1) Favorable poll numbers on OH early voting (which are just polls); 2) Obama memo telling me that 80% of 2012 voter registrations were women, minorities, under-30 voters; 3) 2/3 of new voters come from Obama counties; 4) Increased numbers from Obama counties, more than increased numbers in Republican counties...

All this isn't quite percentages telling me what's going on exactly. I was curious to see this guy's take on the numbers, and he has totally different things he points out, and it makes me nervous that we are missing something.

If someone understands OH well, please comment!

[leftynyc]

16. The President's men/women understand Ohio

As do the republicans...tis why Joe Scarborough looked like he wanted to throw up this morning.

[woolldog]

4. Seems like there's a difference between

absentee ballots and early in person voting that's being ignored. I'd like to hear a more robust response to the OP though. I get that Freepers are biased etc I'd just like to know more about why this analysis is wrong.

[krawhitham]

5. Info he is using

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0

[piechartking]

8. Ok, so I guess i feel better now...

I read the "caveats" portion and basically someone says don't pay attention to party because it don't mean shit.

Thanks for that. Is that your interpretation too?

[easychoice]

6. Dems are sitting this one out?!?

I have no idea where Mr. Freeper scrounged up his numbers but I live in Seattle and even I know he is full of crap.
Obama is taking Ohio.
Slam dunk!

[LiberalAndProud]

7. The moon is made of green cheese.

Without citation, one can claim anything. No proof required.

To counter the unsourced nonsense, there is this.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/263921-poll-obama-up-by-5-in-ohio-crushing-romney-among-early-voters

President Obama has a 5-percentage-point advantage over Mitt Romney in Ohio, thanks to a massive lead among those who say they have already voted, according to a Time magazine poll released Wednesday.

-snip-

“Today we are ahead of where we were at this time against John McCain — and ahead of Mitt Romney,” national field director Jeremy Bird wrote. “Republicans are similarly talking up their ground game and early vote numbers, but their assertions rest on much shakier ground.”

The Bird memo pointed to four polls that show Obama with leads of between 19 and 52 points in Ohio among early voters, and argued the demographics and geography of those who had voted early strongly favors the president.

The Republican National Committee responded by calling the Obama campaign memo “panicked,” and argued that Republicans have been shrinking the president’s lead in Ohio early voting.

 “Their 20-point advantage in 2008 is now less than 7 and shrinking,” said GOP communications and research director Tim Miller in an email.

[PCIntern]

9. Gee, I don't know...

imagine if I showed up on FR and started quoting Time Magazine polls showing the Prez breaking out in Ohio by 5 points and the trend going the Dems way....ZOT!

[Uben]

10. Notice all the links confirming this lie?

Yeah...me neither.

[BlueState]

11. I am confused by exactly what is being measured here

First, if we are talking about early voting, one doesn't request a ballot. Just show up to an early voting polling location and vote.

If it is absentee ballots that they are talking about - I've been to the Ohio board of elections website. For a general election,
as opposed to a primary, one does not specify party affiliation.

So I really don't know these stats mean or are meant to mean and can't refute it. I will say this, that they are grasping at straws this way and cherry picking data to calm they're addled minds, would, to me, show we are probably winning.


So really your question is "What should I believe, an aggregation of reputable polls, or an idiot freeper with an Excel spreadsheet and too much time on his hands?"

I'll leave you to decide.

[Jennicut]

12. In OH, people do not register for a party. The state recognizes them as R or D depending on

who they last voted for. There was no primary for Dems therefore many people voted in the Repub primary. This does not mean these people will vote for a Republican. I would look at early voting numbers through different polls. Plus, this is absentee ballots not in person early voting.

[krawhitham]

14. "Plus, this is absentee ballots not in person early voting"

Ohio considered in-person early voting to be a form of mail balloting in their reported statistics.The numbers are going to change considerably once in-person early voting starts, particularly closer to Election Day when more people (particularly Democrats) tend to vote in-person early

[krawhitham]

13. one more thing

If you did not vote in the last primary you are no longer listed with a party affiliation, there was not much of a reason for Dems to vote in the primary this year, President & Senator were both incumbents and most house races the Dems were running unopposed. Plus in Ohio (maybe other places too) Jury Duty pools are gathered from primary voters so a lot of people in this state avoid primaries like the plague

[Drahthaardogs]

15. The spreadsheet does not add up.

Look at Total Absebtee Requests for 2012. Then add up the R and add up the D. They do not add up to the total.

For example, let's take Darkee County.

2012 Total Request = 4619

D = 547

R = 1767

That = 2314

Where are the missing 2305 ballots tallied? Bottom line, per this spreadsheet, they are not accounted anywhere.

What is going on? He says the 2008 results are based upon RETURNED ballots, the 2012 totals on REQUESTED. Party ID's were established per the last PRIMARY affiliation that was voted in. So, since Democrats had no primary this year, that number is probably vastly underrated here. Many independents/unaffiliated voters are left out as well. In other words, he is missing about 1/3 of the voters and really only has a good count of Republicans who requested ballots and who ALSO voted in this year's primary.

This spreadhseet is a piece of junk. Listen to the polls.

On Edit: The only meaningful thing you could glean here is Republican turnout 2008 vs. 2012 by county. Just a quick rundown does not strike me as statistically significant, but I do not have time to run the stats and check it.

[krawhitham]

18. independents

They have ballots with just issues for primaries if you say you are an independent

In Ohio voters are listed as Rethug, Dem, or independent after they vote in a primary

[Cicada]

17. Party=which primary ballot you cast; no need 4 Dems to vote in primary

The number of Repubs is artificially high because they had a contested primary this year. Ohio does not have party registration but lists your party only if you voted in that party's primary. This year the contested Repub primary got way more voters than did the noncontested Dem primary so the number of Repubs is artificially high. Many newly registered Dems are not listed as dems.