Jon Ralston: Why Romney hasn't surrendered Nevada

[RandySF]

There are various theories as to why Romney is still campaigning here and why his team and outside groups are spending a fortune in the final two weeks. And some of it – maybe a lot of it – may have more to do with races below the top of the ticket.

I believe that some people in Romney's organization believe the state can be won. They are happy that Republicans are turning out better than in 2008, even though that is an awfully low bar because there really was no race here after John McCain all but gave up and it was a wave election.

I have been reliably told that Romney’s internals in Nevada show him up a point – but some of those folks are smart enough to give the margin of error to the Democratic machine. But that makes it a race, so they aren’t going anywhere.

(Obama's polls here consistently have shown him up by 5-8 points. Mark Mellman, who consistently showed Harry Reid winning in 2010, is doing those surveys.)

As I have reported ad nauseam, the math looks ominous for Romney with the registration and early voting turnout. But it’s not insurmountable math. If Republicans can turn out in much greater numbers during the second week of early voting and on Nov.6 and if Romney can decisively win independents, he could pull of a squeaker.



http://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/my-column-why-romney-hasnt-surrendered-nevada#.UIjMS313n_8

[Tigress DEM]

1. He hit Nevada on an all-nighter. Iowa, Colorado, Leno and Nevada today.

Even ROCK Stars don't do that many shows in a day. The people at the rally kept saying "We Love YOU" and "Four More Years" - they listened to his plan and the Romnesia jokes, but mostly they just were happy to see him and let him know they supported him. It was really cool.

(Live feed on CBS)

[DonRedwood]

2. how many voting machines do the romneys own in nevada?

[silvershadow]

10. +1 for the answer?

I, too, would be curious about this...though, doesn't Adelson home base in Nevada?

[graham4anything]

3. It's a joke that Mittens is reduced to hoping for a tie and a corrupt congress voting him in

It means he has conceded being able to get to 270.

the joke will be when Gary johnson gets 7% of the republicantealibertarian vote because even some repubs can't stand the sight of mitt

[Smilo]

4. Romney was in Reno today

and I was just reading why people were following him, it is nauseating - these people still don't get it. They are blaming the current administration for the economy - obviously not taking off their GOP rose tinted glasses and looking at what is happening everywhere else in the world - many thanks in part to those in power 8 years ago.


www.rgj.com


Thank you DU for keeping me grounded and letting me vent now and again.

N. NV will go for Romney - so we need S. NV to bring sanity home.

[amborin]

5. GOTV is crucial for us!

I can't think of anything else that matters as much.

I always feel fear about Nevada. Some friends and I drove there for gotv in 2004 and
the whole thing was so traumatic. I do not want to see a repeat of that. Obama must win.

I'm confident he will. But take nothing for granted. Rove is treacherous.

[BlueStreak]

6. When you spend millions of Adelson's money, you had better show face.

[ProudProgressiveNow]

7. +1

And here's hoping Adelson gets burned for the cash!

[RandySF]

8. More from the article.

"If you want to know the cynical truth, I believe top thinkers in both parties have believed all year that the most likely result is Obama-Heller in Nevada. And while both might have something to be upset about if that is the outcome, that is what they have long expected to happen here."

[progressivebydesign]

9. Four words: Casino Money & Harry Reid. nt

[amborin]

11. Nate Silver explains why:

"Whether you call Ohio a “must-win” is a matter of semantics, but its essential role in the Electoral College should not be hard to grasp.

Were he to lose Ohio, Mr. Romney would have a number of undesirable, although not impossible, options.

The most favorable path, in the view of the model, would be for Mr. Romney to carry both Iowa and Nevada.

Of the two states, Iowa is the easier get. The polls there show a split between ties and leads for Mr. Obama, as opposed to Nevada, where they are mainly split between smaller leads for Mr. Obama and larger ones. In addition, in Nevada, Democrats have a significant voter-registration advantage and are building a large lead in early voting; the polls there have also tended to underestimate Democratic performance in recent years....."

[BlueStreak]

12. Romney's trying to keep all his options open. In the next few days, the campaign should give up

on the "all options" strategy and decide on the one and only combination of states that can get him there, and then go after every last vote in those states.

I can't see Nevada being on that final list, so that means Romney will have to stay in Ohio to the end, even if the numbers don't look good for him. Ohio has the advantage of a better GOP ground organization, a strong history of election fraud, and a Governor and Secretary of State who are willing to commit felonies to help Romney.