Nate Silver ups Obama's chances to 71%; swing state firewall very real

[boxman15]

That's Obama's highest since Oct. 9 and the momentum is clearly in Obama's favor. Plus, look at his odds in swing states:

Wisconsin (10 EVs) - 82%
Nevada (6) - 75.9%
Ohio (18) - 73.4%
New Hampshire (4) - 67.2%
Iowa (6) - 66.5%
Virginia (13) - 52.9%
Colorado (9) - 52.2%
Florida (29) - 32.4%
North Carolina (15) - 15.1%

All Obama needs to do is win WI, NV, and OH and he wins. If he wins in the states he's favored in, that's 303 electoral votes. We're really in excellent shape. Now's not the time to be complacent, though.

[MrSlayer]

1. How can we be doing that poorly in Florida?

North Carolina I guess I can see being that it was kind of a fluke that we won it last time, but Florida? The seniors are buying the Romney bullshit? Sad.

[LisaL]

3. I presume he is basing it on polls.

And FL polls have been all over the place.

[jeff47]

4. That's probability to win, not percent of votes. (nt)

[MrSlayer]

9. Yes, I know. 30% is poor.

Like, not going to happen poor.

[Grammy23]

5. Well, this Florida resident will be doing her part to contribute to his tally

this Saturday when I vote. Make that TWO votes for NW Florida in the blood red Florida Panhandle since my husband will vote, too! Sorry to see Nate's low expectation for Florida as I had high hopes that the Seniors (and I am one) would get the drift about what Romney and Ryan have in mind for Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. Looks like Rove and his minions have done their job and lied to the seniors and then Ryan's Mom helped seal the deal.

Maybe the Hispanic vote will help bring those numbers up? We can only hope.....and urge them to VOTE!!

[regnaD kciN]

10. I don't want to question Nate's odds...

...but it seems to me he has a different scale than most people. According to his own comments recently, 65% - 70% only makes one a "narrow" favorite. I would therefore assume that 30% would mean that you're only a narrow underdog.

[MrSlayer]

11. From that perspective...

It's weird but it makes sense on its face. I don't like seventy being narrow.

[aaaaaa5a]

2. He has Wisconsin ranked higher than Nevada. Interesting. nt

[krawhitham]

8. NV +3.7 Pollster +2.7 RCP - WI +3.6 Pollster +2.7 RCP

WI has better "State fundamentals" as Nate calls it +6.3 Obama VS NV's +5.0

[aaaaaa5a]

6. Where's Romney's momentum?

In Nate's Now cast, Obama has picked up 11 points in the last week.

[Grammy23]

7. I think I'll sleep better tonight since this is going in the right direction again!

I was kinda worried this afternoon, but also trying not to panic since the numbers were still in Obama's favor.....not Romney's. NO matter what the Repubs say, the numbers don't lie and they are not telling us that R and R are winning. They are telling us the exact opposite. But the Repubs are playing a mind game with us and with their base. Insist you're winning, get the media on your side and lure over a few souls who want to be on the winning team. It's an old ruse (where have I heard that expression?) but we're on to it.

Obama/Biden 2012!! On to Victory on Nov. 6th!!