Politico/GW Poll Confirms: Obama winning Electoral Battle (Romney winning only deep red)
I'm amazed when these polls come out with the details in the cross-tabs that basically go ignored. The election is not won by popular vote. It's determined by who wins more electoral votes. The overall numbers might be a tie or Romney with a slight edge, but if he's winning deep red states by large margins, it won't equate to winning the election. This latest poll confirms a clear electoral win for Obama. And this is a good poll because it samples 1000 people. The data is there, one simple needs to consider it.
Ultimately, even if Romney wins the South by HUGE margins, boosting his overall percentage in the popular vote, it doesn't get him enough Electoral Votes to win.
Last week, I responded to a Gallup poll with Romney leading by 7 points overall but also shows Obama leading in all regions by 4-5 points *except* the South, where Romney is winning by 22 points. Today's Politico/GW Battleground poll reinforces that but also shows strong momentum for the Obama campaign. While Romney his holding onto strong 20-point leads in the deep red states, Obama is increasing his margins in the battleground states.
Here is their poll: http://images.politico.com/global/2012/10/politico_gwbgp_oct22_weightedtables.html
And here is the breakdown by region for the candidates:
In summary:
Northeast: O(+9)
Midwest: O(+15)
South: R(+22)
South Central: R(+10)
Central Plains R(+3)
Mountain: R(+20)
West: O(+13)
Let's break this down by Electoral Votes. Like last week, we'll assume Romney wins VA, NC and FL give the large 22 point lead he has in this poll in the South. I believe these three states are toss-ups, but I want to give Romney the best possible scenario and show he still can't win.. According to this new poll, Obama is winning the Midwest by 15 points, much larger than the Gallup breakdown from last week, which suggests Obama has momentum from the second debate, re-energizing his base and closing the enthusiasm gap. With such a large lead in the Midwest, which includes Ohio, and with the Quinnipac poll released today suggesting a 5 point lead in that state, Ohio will be solid blue, practically securing the election.
And with a 13 point lead in the West, this suggests that NV is going to go blue given that in the same poll. The only unclear issue here is the breakdown of Mountain vs. West. Typically, the Mountain states are considered part of the West. I assume this break-out was for Colorado, but that state has shown momentum for Obama and is the only state that is not deep red in the Mountain States except NM (unless you consider NV a mountain state). That means if the Mountain states are really a 60-40 split, then Obama's lead in Colorado must be expanding giving it is a minority blue state in the region of very red states. Even if Romney wins Colorado, he can't win without Ohio.
The way this poll stands, I believe Nate Silver's current prediction is the most accurate:
Obama 288 to Romney 250 with the following map:
This is an improvement from last week and it shows Obama has momentum moving into the last two weeks of the election.
= new reply since forum marked as read
and so will Texas! 
Florida is now in the Obama column, so add 29 votes. North Carolina adds 15, Virginia looking good too, with another 13
With Iowa and Colorado, Obama gets another 17, for 345.
Turning Missouri and Arizona puts Obama at 368 with NH blue, better than 2008!
My prediction post-Romnesia, pre-debate three looks like this:
