Why do Democrats win the debate but lose the "post-debate"??

[kentuck]

According to NBC/WSJ poll, the race is now tied among "likely voters". No matter which side wins, the other side is going to be pissed off to the max.
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http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/21/14593294-nbcwsj-poll-presidential-contest-now-tied?ocid=twitter

<snip>
Heading into Monday's final debate and with just over two weeks until Election Day, President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney are now tied nationally, according the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

Obama and Romney both get 47 percent among likely voters in the latest edition of the poll, conducted entirely in the aftermath of the second presidential debate last Monday. In the last national NBC/WSJ poll, which was conducted before debate season began, the president held a narrow, three-point lead over his GOP challenger, 49 percent to 46 percent.

But among the wider pool of all registered voters in this new survey, Obama is ahead of Romney by five points, 49 percent to 44 percent.

[GentryDixon]

1. Corrupt media. nt

[ProudProgressiveNow]

14. +1

[AndyTiedye]

2. Because the "Post Debate" Takes Place in the Repiglicking Media

[Blue Owl]

3. M$M for $200, Alex

n/t

[nadinbrzezinski]

4. national vs state polls

and samples.

I know, it is actually easy to explain.

State polls are not showing this at all.

[WinkyDink]

5. I'll ask Carnac.

[Drunken Irishman]

6. I don't see how this poll proves who won or lost the post-debate?

The last NBC News poll was released prior to the first debate ... and had Obama up three. It's possible, if NBC had done a poll a week after the first debate, Romney would've been up three. Therefore, the fact it's tied could suggest Obama's debate bounce stifled Romney's lead.

I don't see how this poll proves anything except what the race looks like today. We don't know what the race looked like this time last week, tho, at least not from the perspective of NBC.

[kentuck]

7. Good point, Drunk,,,

[Drunken Irishman]

8. I think, on the whole, there has been a bump...

The biggest indicator is that Obama was down over a point to Romney in the RCP average and now he leads .2%. So, more polls today show it either a tie or Obama up than this time last week (where only the ABC poll had Obama up, I believe).

[kentuck]

9. Tomorrow's debate us important?

I guess?

[jody]

10. 100% of all the msm coverage is someone's opinions. Polls are fickle and the only thing that matters

are the headlines on November 7.

[tulsakatz]

11. yes, but...

....they consider likely voters to be people who voted in 2010 as well as the last presidential race. Meaning that if you didn't vote in 2010, you may not vote now.

I live in Oklahoma & I did not vote in 2010 because around here, what's the point? That may be a bad attitude but that's how I look at it. But I assure you, I WILL vote in this election as I have in every other presidential election! It does not make me an unlikely voter just because I didn't vote in the last election.

If I had 2 broken legs, I would crawl to the voting booth if I had to! So the likely voter thing is really an inaccurate description....

[okieinpain]

16. lol who you telling. n/t.

[tulsakatz]

18. haha....

I see we have much in common!!

[0rganism]

12. Notice the key phrases in poll reports these days: "likely voters"

Pollsters are free to interpret "likely" however they prefer, and this accounts for the "all over the place" nature of recent polls IMHO. Also, any media-purchased poll is going to use the turnout model that gives them the best "horse race" result they can get. I'm pretty confident that they could tweak the results-weighting to show a 5-point Rmoney lead if they wanted to, but they don't (unless they're a hack shop like Gravis).

Remember: national polls don't mean jack shit. It's the state-by-state polls that matter.

[zbdent]

13. Well, after the 1st debate, you had the "liberally-biased cheerleaders, er, media" LOUDLY

proclaiming Romney the winner FIRST THING IN THE MORNING, before most people had their morning coffee. Later, quietly, probably during the "pee break" during "The View", it might have been noted that Romney lied a LOT during the debate.

Contrast that with the 2nd Presidential debate ... At best, the "liberally-biased media" called it a tie.

[Irishonly]

15. I am ignoring the media at this point

I am ignoring the polls. Nothing rings right. You see President Obama with HUGE crowds and people are smiling. You see the others and not a crowd shot. The media is calling this close and I don't get it. Are all of the people coming out to see the President and not going to vote?

I keep threatening to lie like crazy if I am asked to be in a poll and tell them I am voting for the most conservative awful people in the world just so I can laugh when their stupid polls are completely wrong.

[bluestate10]

17. Democrats are mealy mouthed when speaking and democrats use words that the

average everyday person does not understand. The impression that everyday people get from key democrats is that they love to hear themselves talk, which is the wrong impression, democrats have the best policy, they just do a shitty job of explaining it.