Romney-Obama polls compared to Bush-Kerry 2004 polls. Interesting comparison.

[Honeycombe8]

It's hard to read these embedded charts, but this is an interesting comparison. It seems to me, looking at the Realclearpolitics.com poll average...it seems so clear now the lead that Bush had. It wasn't large. The election was close. But the avg of the polls had Bush ahead of Kerry for a long time before the election.

I can see where the Romney-Obama polls flipped, and they have stayed flipped, since October 9th. The margin between Romney and Obama is so tight.

The polls starting this weekend should be reflective of the 2nd debate. I hope there's a bump. Anyway, I thought this was interesting reading, and shows that the polls, when looked at in totality, seem to get it right (unless it's really really close).

Copy and paste to embed:

Election 2012 RCP Average Election 2004 RCP Average
Date Romney Obama -- -- -- -- Date Bush Kerry
11/2/2012 -- -- -- -- -- -- 11/2/2004 48.9 47.4
11/1/2012 -- -- -- -- -- -- 11/1/2004 48.4 46.9
10/31/2012 -- -- -- -- -- -- 10/31/2004 48.5 46.6
10/30/2012 -- -- -- -- -- -- 10/30/2004 48.1 46
10/29/2012 -- -- -- -- -- -- 10/29/2004 48.8 46.2
10/28/2012 -- -- -- -- -- -- 10/28/2004 48.4 46.1
10/27/2012 -- -- -- -- -- -- 10/27/2004 48.4 46.4
10/26/2012 -- -- -- -- -- -- 10/26/2004 48.8 46.5
10/25/2012 -- -- -- -- -- -- 10/25/2004 48.8 46
10/24/2012 -- -- -- -- -- -- 10/24/2004 48.8 45.9
10/23/2012 -- -- -- -- -- -- 10/23/2004 48.5 45.8
10/22/2012 -- -- -- -- -- -- 10/22/2004 48.4 46
10/21/2012 -- -- -- -- -- -- 10/21/2004 48.5 45.7
10/20/2012 -- -- -- -- -- -- 10/20/2004 48.5 45.5
10/19/2012 -- -- -- -- -- -- 10/19/2004 48.7 45.2
10/18/2012 47.7 46.7 -- 10/18/2004 48.7 45.3
10/17/2012 47.4 47 -- 10/17/2004 49 45
10/16/2012 47.4 47 -- 10/16/2004 48.8 45.4
10/15/2012 47.4 47.3 -- 10/15/2004 47.8 45.5
10/14/2012 47.4 46.4 -- 10/14/2004 47.5 45.8
10/13/2012 47.3 46 -- 10/13/2004 47.3 45.8
10/12/2012 47.3 46.3 -- 10/12/2004 47.8 45.8
10/11/2012 47.1 46.4 -- 10/11/2004 47.3 46.5
10/10/2012 47.6 46.1 -- 10/10/2004 48 45.8
10/9/2012 48 47.3 -- 10/9/2004 47.5 45.8
10/8/2012 47.4 47.9 -- 10/8/2004 47.8 45.8
10/7/2012 47 48.4 -- 10/7/2004 47.8 46
10/6/2012 47 48.4 -- 10/6/2004 47.7 45.9
10/5/2012 46.4 49 -- 10/5/2004 47.5 45.9
10/4/2012 46 49.1 -- 10/4/2004 47.8 46
10/3/2012 46 49.1 -- 10/3/2004 49 46.3
10/2/2012 45.7 49 -- 10/2/2004 48.7 44.3
10/1/2012 45.3 49.3 -- 10/1/2004 49.2 43.8
9/30/2012 44.6 48.7 -- 9/30/2004 49.5 43.5
9/29/2012 44.6 48.9 -- 9/29/2004 49.3 43.4
9/28/2012 44.6 48.7 -- 9/28/2004 49.3 43.4
9/27/2012 44.6 48.6 -- 9/27/2004 50 43.6
9/26/2012 44.9 48.9 -- 9/26/2004 49.1 43.6
9/25/2012 44.6 48.6 -- 9/25/2004 49 43.4
9/24/2012 44.9 48.6 -- 9/24/2004 49 43.4
9/23/2012 44.6 48.3 -- 9/23/2004 48.6 43.4
9/22/2012 44.8 48.1 -- 9/22/2004 48.7 43.3
9/21/2012 44.6 48.1 -- 9/21/2004 48.5 42.8
9/20/2012 45.2 48.3 -- 9/20/2004 48.5 42.8
9/19/2012 45.3 48.2 -- 9/19/2004 49.3 42.5
9/18/2012 45.3 48.1 -- 9/18/2004 49.2 43.3

[liberal N proud]

1. Setting it up to steal it again

worked in 2004, and they will do it again in 2008

[sandyshoes17]

2. I'm seeing the same trend

It was unbelievable then and even worse now

[fearnobush]

4. I don't think so. Bush was the incumbant in 2004.

The incumbant has a lot of power to shape things on the ground in many ways. RCP has that rediculous gallup crap in the mix and they dont factor in state polls. Stick with Nate on the real state of the race.

[liberal N proud]

5. That has nothing to do with it

They own the Governor of Ohio, The Secretary of State of Ohio, the Attorny General of Ohio and they have gerrymandered the districts and placed all sorts of voter restrictions to thwart voting.

Same for Florida.

Who is in the White House, has nothing to do with what they plan on doing. Don't sit around and think its not possible and probable because you could very easily wake on Nov. 7 with some terrible results.

[Generic Other]

3. Obama is doing better than Kerry did in 04

Maybe they won't be able to steal it.

[Honeycombe8]

7. I noticed that. Sooooo close. And Obama was consistently ahead until 10/9, unlike Bush-Kerry.

I didn't go that far back in time (the poll comparison goes on and on), but Bush had consistently been ahead of Kerry for a looooong time before the election. Whereas Obama had consistently been ahead until October 9th, then it flipped. Very different scenario. Anything can happen.

[RandySF]

6. This year feels like 2004 in reverse.