General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThe President's Reelect At Princeton Consortium Stands At 84%
Two weeks ago, the calculation dictated that Obama would fall from a high of +6.2%. Today, it predicts the converse. Let me review the contributing facts.
The Presidents been ahead all season. I said the Meta-Margin should float around Obama +3.0 +/- 2.2%. This means that as of today, hes in a place I said hed be about 14% of the time.
We now know that the debate spike was large but not long-lasting.
In the 2004 and 2008 races, the races snapshot on any day was not predictive of where it would be 3 weeks later. Closer than 3 weeks, it gets slowly more predictive. The movement from today to Election Day should be about 1.8% (1 standard deviation), perhaps more in extreme cases.
We dont know which way things will move next. However, the people surveyed in June-September are the same people being surveyed in October. Movement from an extreme is likely to be toward the equilibrium. Think of the Presidential race as a swinging pendulum.
Of course, there is a chance that this will not happen, and Mitt Romney will win the Presidency. Its like hurricanes: storms go to unexpected places.
As I said, I think Romneys win probability is about 16%. To a Democrat, thats a six-shooter with one shell labeled R-outcome. To a Republican, its loaded with five shell labeled D-outcome. Yet in comments, the Republicans are the giddy ones. This says so much to me about both sides
http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/15/the-passing-storm/
greatauntoftriplets
(175,749 posts)I trust studies like this vs. polls. People who respond to polls are notoriously fickle, IMO.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)One poll is just a data point.
Tigress DEM
(7,887 posts)Households with cell phones only, no land lines.
I screen my calls and I don't DO polls that call me because their questions skew the results.
1. Do you hate the President because he's a baby killer or because he's a bad President?
Most DEMs WORK full time and sometimes 2 or 3 jobs so we aren't at home to answer pollsters anyway.
Plenty show up for the rallies.
Plenty will get out and VOTE.
JackN415
(924 posts)like you.
related thread:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021541900
bocephus0706
(27 posts)I am a teamleader with OFA (Obama for America).
Like everybody else i see the polls that are all over the place. And when you research the various polls you find out that a lot of them cannot be trusted.
I joined this board to simply ask all of you to do what we have been doing for over a year now.....is to make sure that Democrats show up to vote.
When Democrats vote, Democrats win. It is that simple.
Negative Adds, bogus polls etc will not matter as long as we all make sure that every Democrat votes.
So please talk to your neighbors, your friends, your associates, strangers in your neighborhood, your sphere of influences. Join an Obama grassroots team and help get out the vote.
That is what everybody needs to do now.
thanks
fugop
(1,828 posts)RagAss
(13,832 posts)iemitsu
(3,888 posts)and thanks for the info.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts).
JackN415
(924 posts)Bernardo de La Paz
(49,036 posts)Stellar
(5,644 posts)We need to join together and win this election!
littlemissmartypants
(22,797 posts)Bernardo de La Paz
(49,036 posts)Republicans and especially the Ts are divorced from reality.
Much in the same way that Ryan's fauxto-op was about as real as his numbers.
And Romney's statement that nobody dies from lack of health insurance.