Did anyone pick up on this Nate Silver tweet? Hello!

[Baitball Blogger]

Nate Silver ?@fivethirtyeight

There's some evidence that polls which don't conduct Spanish-language interviews lowball Dem vote among Hispanics. (2/3)

http://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight

You know what this means? That Obama's senior campaign advisor, David Plouffe, has it right about Florida. Mason-Dixon is not rooted in reality.

I think they were trying to skew the polls to get Obama's people out of Florida. It's still doable because no one is taking accurate polls of latinos and latinas!

Plouffe Pushes Back Against Florida Poll Showing Obama Down 7

President Obama's senior campaign adviser David Plouffe dismissed the findings of a Mason-Dixon poll released on Thursday that showed Republican nominee Mitt Romney leading in Florida, 51 percent to 44 percent.

Arguing to the Tampa Bay Times that the poll is "not rooted in reality," Plouffe argued that it was unlikely that Obama is polling so low in the Sunshine State.

"We got 57 percent of the Latino vote, according to exit (polls) last time," Plouffe said. "We think we'll probably push 60 or above this time. It's impossible for us to be at 44 in Florida."

The Mason-Dixon poll was conducted on behalf of the Tampa Bay Times, Bay News 9, Miami Herald, El Nuevo Herald and Central Florida News 13.

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/plouffe-pushes-back-against-florida-poll-showing-obama

[The Wielding Truth]

1. What does Biden say? "Never give up on the American People."?

[hrmjustin]

2. Thanks for posting this.

[MissMarple]

3. It helped in Nevada and Arizona is a lot bluer than many think..

Here's a link: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251140145

[Baitball Blogger]

4. Troy D Response #59

He has the three tweets that Silver made in response to Arizona. Don't see why it wouldn't apply to Florida too.

[BumRushDaShow]

5. I expect Plouffe is doing this based on internal polling too...

It's pretty rare that he comes out, let alone to discuss a poll...

[ProSense]

6. Mason-Dixon 2008

First, here is Nate Silver on the Mason-Dixon Florida poll:

The Florida poll, which was conducted by Mason-Dixon, a good polling firm, showed Mr. Romney with a lead and was a helpful reminder of this. Mr. Obama probably does not trail in Florida by seven points. Some other polls published this week showed him with a small lead there. But there is reason to think that he has become the underdog, since Mr. Obama led in Florida by two or three points before the debates and because Mr. Romney’s bounce since then has been a little larger than that. In fact, the FiveThirtyEight forecast had flipped to calling Mr. Romney a slight favorite in Florida a couple of days ago.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/12/oct-11-obamas-swing-state-firewall-has-brittle-foundation

This is not acceptable. The polling firm may be "good," but the poll is bunk!

The poll shows Romney winning Hispanics 46 to 44, which is similar to the lead they gave McCain in October 2008.

Mason-Dixon Florida Poll: October 20 through October 21, 2008

<...>

Republican John McCain has moved narrowly ahead of Democrat Barack Obama in Florida. Statewide, 46% of voters currently support McCain, while 45% back Obama, 2% are for other candidates and 7% remain undecided. Obama held a similarly slim 48%-46% lead two weeks ago.

<...>

In the key Tampa Bay region, McCain now has a 47%-44% lead, reversing Obama’s 48%-44% advantage from early October. The other regions of the state continue to follow their historical patterns, with Obama holding a wide 58%-32% lead in Southeast Florida and McCain running ahead in North Florida (56%-35%), Central Florida (53%-39%) and Southwest Florida (54%-38%).

Obama continues to run stronger among Democrats, women, those under 35, blacks and those who have never served in the military, while McCain is stronger with men, Republicans, those over 65, whites and military veterans. Obama has a 47%-41% lead among independent voters, while McCain has a 47%-44% among Hispanic & Cuban voters.

McCain still has a higher favorable rating with Florida voters than Obama (51%-49%), while Obama’s negatives are a bit higher than McCain’s (37%-33%).

- more -

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/sections/news/081022_Fla_Mason-Dixon.pdf

Other current polling.

Florida Poll: Obama 49, Romney 45

A new University of North Florida poll conducted from October 1 to October 10 shows President Obama with a four point lead over Mitt Romney, 49 percent to 45 percent.

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/florida-poll-obama-49-romney-45

Poll: Hispanics in Florida favor President Barack Obama over Mitt Romney, 61-31

The Hispanic support mirrors other Florida surveys that show Obama with a large lead among this crucial and growing segment of the Florida electorate.

By Marc Caputo

Hispanic voters in Florida heavily favor President Obama, strongly back his immigration positions and are highly enthusiastic about voting...according to the survey of 400 registered Florida Hispanics conducted by Latino Decisions for America’s Voice, a group that advocates for liberal immigration policies.

Obama pulls 61 percent Hispanic support compared to 31 percent for Republican Mitt Romney, the poll showed....this 30-point margin is the largest Obama lead to date.

<...>

But the number of Republican Hispanics has only grown 12 percent, while the number of Democratic Hispanics have increased 60 percent and no-party-affiliation Hispanic voters increased 50 percent. NPA Hispanics now outnumber Republican Hispanics in Florida.

And Hispanics are energized about voting as well, with 70 percent saying their “very enthusiastic” about voting...That’s welcome news to the Obama campaign, which has watched its support slip among non-white Hispanic whites. Obama lost the white vote 42-56 percent to John McCain in 2008 in Florida, but won Hispanics 57-42.

http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/10/04/v-fullstory/3034352/poll-hispanics-in-florida-favor.html

As for Arizona, a close race there is plausible. A September poll showed Romney leading by only 3 points.

Arizona (Romney +3): For the first time, we have included Arizona as a stand-alone state, and find Mitt Romney leading 48% to 45%. Romney is also winning independents in the state (47% to 42%), while President Obama is performing very well among Hispanics (58% to 28%). This represents an improvement on his result among Hispanics in Arizona in 2008, where he defeated John McCain by 15 points among that k ey group.

http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/PurplePoll-9.21.12.pdf

There must be a reason they pulled out Arizona for the first time.

Why Arizona may be the surprise of 2012 – the big Latino vote that you didn’t see coming
http://sync.democraticunderground.com/10021506630

Jim Acosta just tweeted: Obama leads 44-42% in Arizona!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251140145

Nate:

Although AZ poll very likely an outlier, one scary thing for Romney is that it included Spanish-language interviews. (1/3)

http://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight

[Baitball Blogger]

8. Damn. That is some seriously good analysis.

[ProSense]

9. Thanks, and it's exciting too. : ) n/t

[SunSeeker]

18. ProSense, you rock.

[Sekhmets Daughter]

28. I live in FL

We are under siege from Republican ads and we have more than our fair share of fools living in this state....They are targeting the elderly like mad...and it's not just Romney....it's all the GOP candidates for everything. Allen West is running an ad attacking Patrick Murphy for saying he supports Obamacare and how that has gutted Medicare.

[ProSense]

31. Wait,

"Allen West is running an ad attacking Patrick Murphy for saying he supports Obamacare and how that has gutted Medicare. "

...isn't Allen West behind in the polls? Last poll I saw he was losing by 9 points.

[Sekhmets Daughter]

33. Doesn't matter

His ads are on the airways in my district and he's not my representative. It's the overlap....hell I get very expensive flyers from West at least twice a week...

[ProSense]

36. Maybe the ads aren't working

"hell I get very expensive flyers from West at least twice a week..."

If he's behind in the polls, he may be wasting money.

[Sekhmets Daughter]

37. My point

is that his ads are adding to the concern that seniors have regarding medicare.

[BlueCaliDem]

29. Prosense, as always YOU ROCK! eom

[tishaLA]

43. Wish I could rec this post!

Very very good info.

[doc03]

7. With all the seniors in Florida how can it be close at all.

Apparently they must figure they already have their SS and Medicare screw everyone else.

[Baitball Blogger]

11. Judging from my right-wing community,

they coddle the Senior elite here, allowing them to do some very crooked things which would get others charged with conspiracy and fraud. My community is very steep with military retirees and they act like the community is a military base. The contradiction is stark, because their way of life is based on an artificial merit system, and is not constitutionally based.

So, to answer your question, as long as the fears and interests of right-wing seniors are coddled, they are blind to everything else.

[Sekhmets Daughter]

38. Are you in the Villages?

[Baitball Blogger]

39. No.

I think I'm in a Villages proto-type.

[Sekhmets Daughter]

41. I don't know if that's better or worse.

[Baitball Blogger]

42. I haven't read the Villages' Association documents.

But, really, it doesn't matter. In the end, a homeowner can only find relief from the political networks that overtake these communities by finding a lawyer that is willing to take on a board of a super HOA, which probably has connections directly into the city government. I've tried looking, but no lawyer will commit to that kind of professional suicide. They won't take pro bono cases which will ultimately challenge the status quo. That's because the effort would probably uncover a lot of malfeasance that cuts into the legal profession.

[calimary]

12. Well, that's not an unusual point of view. Look at clarence thomas on affirmative action.

Now that he got through the door, he wants to make sure it's shut, fast, before others coming up behind him can't get through it, too.

[Cha]

17. Not to mention Floridians under Rick Scott's rule these last couple a years. nm

[INdemo]

23. Because there are a lot of rich,very rich Seniors in Fla.

that will vote to keep their tax cut rather than vote for some one that will save Medicare or Soc. Sec,
These guys would vote for anyone just because he is White..and that is sad.

[Baitball Blogger]

24. That too.

[Sekhmets Daughter]

34. There are many, many more who are not even a little rich.

[INdemo]

25. Because there are a lot of rich,very rich Seniors in Fla.

that will vote to keep their tax cut rather than vote for some one that will save Medicare or Soc. Sec,
These guys would vote for anyone just because he is White..and that is sad.

[Sekhmets Daughter]

32. No...that's not it.

They're frightened and confused and it is the height of silliness to label an entire demographic as selfish....That's what Republicans do every election cycle to create generational warfare.

Many of our seniors are well-to-do retirees who have been voting Republican all of their lives.... Age makes change more difficult for all but the brightest. Many were born here and are as poor today as were the families into which they were born; they vote for Democrats.

The ads running here don't really explain where that $716 billion is coming from and one thing they know for sure...between fuel and food their retirement isn't as comfortable as it was a decade ago. And remember it was Bush who gave them Medicare Part D.... So there are many factors and we won't know how they play out until election night.

[reusrename]

45. Yes, fear makes them easy targets for a con-job.

Many allow themselves to be conned because, even though they know they are being taken for a ride, it's still a whole lot less terrifying than actually facing reality.

Others allow themselves to be conned because they are uncomfortable admitting that a black president could be better qualified than a guy who "makes Wonderbread look dark and mysterious."

I think that very few are being conned and don't realize that they are being conned.

[Plucketeer]

10. I was phonebanking for Grayson yesterday

It was frustrating because more than half the folks I got on the phone could only speak spanish - and I cant. But maybe there's some promise in that fact!

[Baitball Blogger]

13. My Spanish is so rusty. I would have to memorize the spiel to make sure I got everything covered.

[railsback]

14. PEW was only polling 12% of minorities

Caucasians are almost a minority in this country now. It all seems very intentional to drive the narrative that this race is really that close.

[Baitball Blogger]

15. So many ways to skew a poll.

And we are learning them all on DU.

[Sekhmets Daughter]

35. Not yet...

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/00000.html

[Cha]

16. We Need Gloria Estevan and Marc Anthony in

Miami! Like Springsteen has decided to do in Parma, Ohio!

[WillyT]

19. K & R !!!

[Astazia]

20. I went to check the 538 & that fake polling company is still listed

Isn't Garvin (or a name like this) the company that DU debunked? If so, why is it still listed under polling data used? Just wondered...

[Baitball Blogger]

22. Garvis?

If it's the one I'm thinking of, its headquarters is based in right-wing territory.

[DisabledAmerican]

21. The only poll that mattes is election results GET OUT THE VOTE!

[kitt6]

26. Get to getting!

These MF"s think that they can steal another one like 2000. Where is Romney/Ryan Crowds??

[kelliekat44]

27. I think news like this might get more democrats out to vote. Major fail, I hope.

[AverageJoe90]

30. Thanks for the post, BB!

I guess Nate's still got it after all.

And I honestly believe that the Chicano/a vote may be a saving grace for us this year; look at the recent polls in AZ, for example.

[ProSense]

40. More from Nate

Nate Silver: Arizona and the Spanish-Speaking Vote
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251141125

[ffr]

44. I'm in a swing state and nobody is polling me neither.

I'll make my contribution here next week when it's for real.