General Discussion

kpete

(71,991 posts) Sat Oct 13, 2012, 04:21 PM Oct 2012

Starting to feel the "Obama comeback" coming...let's vote, and get out the vote, for President Obama

Is Arizona a swing state? Looks like it!

It may very well be, if a new poll from the Behavioral Research Center/Rocky Mountain Poll is to be believed, which shows Obama leading Romney 42% to 40% among registered voters. The poll sampled 511 registered voters between October 4 and October 10 and had a margin of error of 4.4%, so the two-point lead for Obama is within the poll's margin of error.

Even CNN, which is in the tank for Romney, was forced to note this poll on its Political Ticker. Despite the fact that he wanted to dismiss this poll as an outlier, Nate Silver mentioned the fact that this poll did Spanish-language interviews on his Twitter page, and he noted, "There's some evidence that polls which don't conduct Spanish-language interviews lowball Dem vote among Hispanics."

Speaking of Nate Silver, Obama has gained ground in Silver's electoral college forecast!
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/13/g-o-p-senate-hopes-fade-even-as-romneys-rise-polls-show/?gwh=EA2F268D0D472C627DEC3C2724DD8709

Obama's chances of winning at least 270 electoral votes has increased to 62.9% from 61.1% yesterday, per Nate Silver's model. That represents a 1.8% increase for Obama in the FiveThirtyEight electoral vote model since yesterday.

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http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/13/1144178/-GOOD-POLLING-NEWS-FOR-OBAMA-Ahead-in-Arizona-and-Moving-Up-in-Nate-Silver-s-EV-Forecast