How "Likely" are Latinos?

[demwing]

My thoughts are that they are not being calculated into the "Likely" category, not unlike what happened in Nevada in 2010, and will be coming out to support Barack Obama in unprecedented numbers. Unprecedented.

Prosense posted this OP last Wednesday, discussing how the Latino vote saved Harry Reid (and the country) from Sharon Angle.

http://sync.democraticunderground.com/10021506630

Today, UrbScotty posted this new poll showing Obama AHEAD in AZ among LV!

http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/polls/5079b24debcabf376f000012

This information should be telling us something...something that we had already felt intuitively - that the recent Romney surge, which coincided with a switch to LV methodology, is skewed because our perception of what makes a person "likely" to vote has not kept up with reality. We often talk casually about the changing demographics of America, but are we integrating those changes in real time, or are we waiting till after the fact to adapt our methods for vote predictions?

Seems like a pretty damned important question. Does anybody know that answer? How likely are Latinos?

[treestar]

1. Rmoney saying he would veto the DREAM act

and Obama giving the DREAMERS the relief from deportation he's giving them - and all Republicans who voted against the DREAM act - to me that shows clearly where the parties are. Even Republicans and Lou Dobson should be in favor of the DREAM act. Those are people brought in illegally as kids. So they have no fault in the case. Wanting them deported too proves to me a racist underpinning - they can't even be kind to the young ones, and they're going to grow up to be "those people."

So it would make sense that Latinos should be very motivated to vote and against Republicans. The voters are citizens, and could be conservative in other ways, but they've got to see the disdain of foreigners as per their race that motivates Republicans. Voting against or vetoing this relief for children is just mean.

[demwing]

2. Right, but do we know if that's calculated

into the "likely" math used in current polling?