Nevada is the Firewall (IMO)

[cthulu2016]

Last edited Thu Oct 11, 2012, 02:03 PM - Edit history (2)

In a hypothetical razor-thin election (leaving aside whether this will or not be a close election) Romney would tend to win all swing states with a strong southern racist presence, and with a history of being Republican... and that is most or all swing states.

It is a good thing that most of the swing states are traditionally Republican. We are playing in their back yard. (That's better than having to defend Connecticut or Pennsylvania)

If Obama wins Ohio and Wisconsin (Meaning 265 EV in the bag) then I consider Nevada the fire wall. (New Hampshire is too small. The firewall has to be at least 5 electoral votes and NH has 4. And due to redistricting we will not win an elector from Nebraska this time.)

Of the firewall states, IA, VA, FL, CO and NV, Nevada (despite having a Republican history) appears to be the strongest for us.

In my opinion.

Note: A firewall is not a prediction of a fire. If Obama wins two or more of the potential firewall states then there is no firewall needed because there's no fire. That is why considering worst cases is useful... the best cases take care of themselves.

[longship]

1. Well reasoned.

I too think BO takes Ohio, and probably WI. I think OH is out of reach for Mitt. They will never forgive him for the bankrupt Detroit comment.

WI is more complex. But I get the feeling that they do not much like Rep. Ryan. That may help the president. I am hopeful here, too, but it looks like a tight race.

NV may be our best chance, although I think BO will take VA, too, which would give Mitt few if any paths to 270.

[cthulu2016]

2. If we take VA it will be hard to lose. (IMO)

I have trouble imagining winning VA while losing OH or WI. The VA polling is decent but this is an incredibly racist state outside the few Democratic concentrations. In that sense, kind of like Ohio in 2004... the rural vote is dangerous.

In a hypothetical razor-thin election I'd view Virginia and Iowa as about equal.

Now, Nevada is all about hispanic turn-out, which is also tricky. Romney will win some Nevada areas almost unanimously so Vegas and Reno have to vote strong.

All guess work, of course, but these days my ears perk up whenever NV is being discussed.

And the redistricting in Nebraska ia a surprisingly big deal. That one electoral vote would have been potentially useful, since we lose a 269-269 tie.

[Sugarcoated]

3. Stories I've seen Rachel Maddow do on the GOP politics in Nevada

they're a mess. If that's the case, in a really close one in Nevada, our GOTV will pull us to a win.

[newspeak]

4. well, I'm disappointed that the nv media is now saying

berkley (d) has lost the lead so far. however, nevada has a lot of ron paul fans and they didn't like what the repug convention did here. of course, since many are pro-deregulating, anti-poor, labor rights people hating twits, they'd probably love an ayn randian sociopath like ryan.

I cannot believe that nevada is the same state that had a great governor like o'callahan. some of these people have "jumped the shark." of course, no surprise, the review journal endorsed romney. since I was in highschool, I don't think they've ever endorsed a democrat. I wished we had an alternative paper here, because my MIL and my whole family would get rid of it in a heartbeat.

they did add "none of the above" on the ballot, for those who have no confidence with any choice.