U.S. Jobless Claims LOWEST IN 4.5 YEARS!

[berni_mccoy]

http://www.boston.com/business/news/2012/10/11/jobless-claims-fall-fewest-years/zbq8Ckf0RLhIyID1LxcBjI/story.html

WASHINGTON (AP) — The number of Americans seeking unemployment aid plummeted last week to seasonally adjusted 339,000, the lowest level in more than four years. The sharp drop, if sustained, could signal a stronger job market.

The Labor Department said Thursday that weekly applications fell by 30,000 to the fewest since February 2008. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, dropped by 11,500 to 364,000, a six-month low.

The positive figures follow a report last week that said the unemployment rate fell in September to 7.8 percent. It was the first time since January 2009 that the rate dropped below 8 percent.

A Labor Department spokesman cautioned that the weekly unemployment aid applications can be volatile, particularly at the start of a quarter. And the spokesman said one large state accounted for much of the decline. The spokesman did not name the state.

Unemployment benefit applications are a proxy for layoffs. When they consistently drop below 375,000, it suggests that hiring is strong enough to lower the unemployment rate.

Some economists said they want to see more data before suggesting the job market is turning around.

‘‘Should this level hold for another week, it would flag a meaningful improvement in October’’ hiring, said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, in a note to clients.

This coupled with Gallup's unemployment number of 7.3 yesterday suggests October is shaping up to be a strong jobs month. The October jobs report will come out the Friday before the election.

[tk2kewl]

1. K&R

[Jon Ace]

2. A Labor Department spokesman cautioned that the weekly unemployment aid applications can be volatile

K&R regardless.

[Viking12]

3. True. But the overall trend is very clear.

Especially when compared to last year's data...

http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm#.UHbqgK50hjs

[awake]

4. This is great news

I hope the jobs are up in the swing states. When voters feel that jobs are going up in their home town then it makes now difference how Fake News spins the report the voters will know the truth.

[mnmoderatedem]

5. yeah but those numbers are being fudged

sincerely,

Jack Welch

[dkf]

6. Problem...

As Dow Jones reported: “A Labor Department economist said one large state didn't report additional quarterly figures as expected, accounting for a substantial part of the decrease.”

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49372827

Economists are speculating the state could be California, the most populous state in the nation.

“It was likely a state with a large population and we suspect that it was California based on the occasional massive swings that have occurred in its claims data in the past,” said Daniel Silver, an economist with JPMorgan, in a note.


http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/10/11/which-state-distorted-jobless-claims-data/?mod=google_news_blog

[BumRushDaShow]

8. But the article says this

Here's what actually happened. The state did report weekly jobless claims but did not process and report its quarterly claims number (when many people have to reapply for benefits for technical reasons as opposed to being newly laid off). As a result, there wasn't the expected spike in claims that normally happens at the start of the quarter.

It is unclear why that happened or how unusual that is. What is clear is that the expected spike in claims around the start of each quarter was smaller this time than usual. Coupled with the seasonal adjustment (that expected a bigger increase), that pushed down the headline figure.

In other words, the drop of 30,000 last week had more to do with the lack of expected re-filings at the start of the fourth quarter than with any particular improvement in labor market conditions.

That also means that the decline which usually follows the spike won’t be as pronounced this time around, so the headline tally of jobless claims is likely to rebound next week.

So it may be much about nothing because these things fluctuate weekly.

All *I* know is that a sister who had been out of work the past 6-months and a BIL, for the past year, BOTH got jobs this past week.

[dkf]

10. The problem is the people who truly rely on these numbers are investors.

They need to feel confidence in these numbers because people are making decisions based on them. So you can say it will correct next week but you are lessening confidence in government data. That has consequences.

[berni_mccoy]

11. Excellent follow-up.

[dkf]

13. You do understand that the seasonal adjustment assumes that the report was filed right?

So the seasonal adjustment was done to fix the quarterly report that wasn't submitted.

[treestar]

7. OMG even more people have given up looking for work!

[berni_mccoy]

12. As Krugman pointed out, we are entering a period of baby boomers retiring

so they are not giving up looking for work, but retiring.

[rock]

9. So, Obama has them lower than what W had them at

[doc03]

14. My fear is Romney winning the election and him getting credit for Obama's recovery, remember

they claimed Clinton's economy was from what GHWB did.