GOOD Morning DU! Today's Swing State Polls Look Great! (UPDATE)

[berni_mccoy]

Last edited Thu Oct 11, 2012, 01:13 PM - Edit history (3)

CBS/Quinnipiac and NBC/Marist plus others:

Virginia: Romney vs. Obama NBC/WSJ/Marist
Obama 47, Romney 48 Romney +1

Florida: Romney vs. Obama NBC/WSJ/Marist
Romney 47, Obama 48 Obama +1

Ohio: Romney vs. Obama NBC/WSJ/Marist
Obama 51, Romney 45 Obama +6

Virginia: Romney vs. Obama CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac
Obama 51, Romney 46 Obama +5

Colorado: Romney vs. Obama CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac
Romney 48, Obama 47 Romney +1

Wisconsin: Romney vs. Obama CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac
Obama 50, Romney 47 Obama +3

Striking because of the Gravis reputation of being a fraud.
Michigan: Romney vs. Obama Gravis Marketing
Obama 46, Romney 44 Obama +2

Pennsylvania: Romney vs. Obama Philadelphia Inquirer
Obama 50, Romney 42 Obama +8

Not a Battleground, but included with the PA poll
New Jersey: Romney vs. Obama Philadelphia Inquirer
Obama 51, Romney 40 Obama +11

UPDATE: Rasmussen shows a 2 point shift for Obama from yesterday. Today's national tracking numbers are Obama 48, Romney 47 (yesterday was the reverse).

Will update again with the Gallup Poll

Update 2: Gallup LV tracking poll has Obama down 1 point from yesterday, R: 48 O: 47. This poll now has no pre-debate numbers and includes only post debate data. Given Romney's substantial bounce on Thursday, Friday and Saturday on the Gallup poll, it will take a few more days for the bounce to factor out. This should be the bottom number for Obama and Romney's post-debate peak.

[scheming daemons]

1. NJ isnt a swing state... if it is, we are toast

[Laura PourMeADrink]

4. haha believe it or not....Real Clear Politics moved PA to tossup yesterday

[Laura PourMeADrink]

2. Thanks ! Are these LVs? do you know?

[OldDem2012]

9. If they are LV numbers, you can rest assured that the numbers are low for Obama because...

...the pollsters are making the assumption that there is less enthusiasm to vote among Democrats. With so much at stake for Democrats, I believe that to be a very bad assumption.

[berni_mccoy]

12. LV.

[morningfog]

3. VA and OH. Very good indeed.

Mitt reached his high point.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

5. The Sun Will Come Out Tommorrow !

True

[bigdarryl]

6. that Gravis Michigan poll is full of shit a brand new poll out of Michigan has O up by 7%

[JoePhilly]

7. Romney only breaks 47% in one of these polls.

And Obama hits 48 or better in 6.

[berni_mccoy]

11. Excellent observation

[JoePhilly]

14. I've been watching the National polls for this too ... using real clear's data.

For the three months up to the end of Sept, Romney broke 47% twice. Over that same period, Obama broke 47% more than 30 times.

Since Oct 1st, Romney has been at 48% or higher 4 times, Obama 3 times.

I tend to think that Romney can't maintain an average above 47% for the next month. And Obama's approval is above 50%.

[berni_mccoy]

8. Updated thread to include Rasmussen shift toward Obama

[OldDem2012]

10. I wonder how the pollsters are treating those who have already voted?...

...are they being placed in the Likely Voter column and then reducing the number based on their assumption that Democrats are "less enthusiastic" about voting?

[BumRushDaShow]

13. K&R

If I remember a thread last night, the Inquirer poll about PA had been embargoed until 10 pm last night.

Glad to see things moving in the right direction!