Fascinating: comparing Reuters/Ipsos poll for Oct 2 to Oct 10

[ProSense]

Basically, Mitt's gain is all Republican, and Obama jumped 11 points among independents.

DAILY ELECTION TRACKING 10.02.12
http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12040

Daily Election Tracking: 10.10.12
http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12067

[ProSense]

1. Kick! n/t

[regnaD kciN]

2. Looks like they messed with the LV screen, too...

...since the effect of the screen was D+2 on the 2nd (yes, I know it's weird to have a screen that favors Democrats) to R+4 today.

And look at the internals: Obama has the exact same three-point lead among RVs as pre-debate, but there's been a nine-point swing to Romney among LVs. Does anyone here think that's a little...unusual?

[ProSense]

3. Oh, just a little.

[cthulu2016]

4. Party ID is self-reported. It C-H-A-N-G-E-S

[ProSense]

6. Also changed: Romney +4 among Repubs, Obama +11 among Indies.

Hey, I'll take the fact that Obama's lead among RV is still the same as pre-debate.

[CakeGrrl]

7. That's why I ignore MSM chatter. Team Obama is all over the internals.

They know what's really going on, where they're competitive or leading, and where they need to focus their ground game.

When the President literally says "I've got this", he knows what the media ignores.

[jimlup]

5. So he became a viable candidate in Republican eyes as he wasn't before...

I've noticed a similar trend on public boards and facebook posts from Republicans. They suddenly seem to be on board with Romney. They really were not until last week. So Romney solidified his base. We can fucking beat that - it will just take energy to do it. We can not afford not to spend that energy now.

[rgbecker]

9. Simple explanation: Americans want a good lier.

[jimlup]

12. No I think that is wrong...

The American people are not evil. They may be ignorant but they are not evil at heart. We have to convince them of what they already know in their hearts.

[ProSense]

10. I think the problem is

also that a lot of greedy bastards and undercover conservatives are waking up to the realization that Obama is likely to win another term.

[tex-wyo-dem]

8. Yep...

"Mitt's gain is all Republican"...and that gain is all enthusiasm that was vacant among some conservatives before the debate. Rethugs that just couldn't get behind Rmoney due to gaffes, lack-luster convention, etc.

We'll see how long this little boost of enthusiasm lasts. Wouldn't surprise me if it dies out pretty quickly.

[AlinPA]

11. Romney's drop of 6 with Independents and the President's gain of 11 means something. (underline

my "something&quot

[ProSense]

13. It may mean

they watched a different debate.

[OldDem2012]

15. It may mean Independents are seeing Mitt's comments for what they are...flat-out lies....

...and they're starting to make their decisions.

[OldDem2012]

14. What I find difficult to understand is the fact that almost all of the polls report....

....more GOPers will turn out to vote than Democrats as evidenced by the LV totals.

I personally believe that Democrats are VERY motivated to vote this year because so much is on the line. That makes me believe that the LV total for Obama is being largely dismissed and/or underreported.

[davidn3600]

21. The problem may be the youth

Especially the under 30s.

The youth turned out in historic numbers in 2008 and were highly motivated. The excitement just isn't there right now with this group. A number of them have since graduated college and can't find satisfactory work. Number of them still living with parents have soared. Even those that have found work are struggling in other ways like not being able to get a mortgage because the lending restrictions are too tight. They have high student loan balances. The recession has hit this group pretty hard and lots of them are disappointed because they expected bigger changes.

And even like MTV usually has voter drives and runs specials about the election to try to energize the youth to vote. I've watched a little of MTV lately and there has been absolutely nothing on the election this year. Nothing. Even the celebs seem subdued. The issue is not that they are going to vote Romney. They won't. The issue is they won't vote at all. Maybe they will surprise everyone and turnout. But historically this is a very unreliable voting bloc. And Obama has done a very poor job of getting them energized again like he did in 2008. So pollsters are projecting their enthusiasm to drop significantly.

The youth was easily motivated in 2008. They wanted change. They wanted someone new and different. And the prospect of that got them excited. Now their choice for change isn't clear. The way they see it is either vote Romney to go back to the Bush years or they vote for Obama to have another 4 years just like the previous 4. That's how they view the election. And they hate both options now. Occupy Wall Street was even protesting the DNC. This group is going to hold politicians feet to the fire more than older voters who will continue voting for the lesser of two evils. The youth don't play that game.

[Blaukraut]

16. So it all comes down to turnout

Obama has to convince discouraged and apathetic Dems in the next two debates that the same points made at the convention still apply. Romney will decrease his base's enthusiasm all on his own in the next few weeks. Just let Mitt be himself - Multiple Choice Mitt, and nobody on his side will be happy.

[ProSense]

17. Reuters now has Romney up by 3 points.

Romney extends lead over Obama in presidential race: Reuters/Ipsos poll

(Reuters) - Republican challenger Mitt Romney has extended his lead over President Barack Obama to 3 percentage points, according to a Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll released on Thursday, ahead of a high-stakes debate between the two candidates' running mates.

Romney now leads the Democrat by 47 percent to 44 percent among likely voters in the online poll, with less than a month before the November 6 election. The Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll released on Wednesday had shown Romney with a one-point lead over Obama, his first lead in the survey in more than a month.

Romney has been enjoying one of his best runs of the campaign after handily winning the first presidential debate last week, partially due to Obama's passive performance in that contest.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/11/us-usa-campaign-poll-thu-idUSBRE89A12U20121011

[DavidL]

18. National polls where candidates are almost even are useless and..

a waste of time to spend much time on at this stage of the game.

This simply means that Republicans and low-information voters have found out that there's an election this year and they are checking their wallets, looking for more tax breaks and voting for whoever promises that.

The only polls to pay attention to are in 9 swing states. Obama leads in 7 of the 9 and is tied or slightly behind in one or two.

Obama doesn't need all nine, he can win with the right 4 of the nine, but having 7 of the 9 in his favor by at least 3 points on the weekend before the election would mean no one has to panic. And panic at the national horse-race being within a point or two does no good at all 4 weeks out.

Concentrate on local states, and electing Dems in your own state or the next state over.

[Alekei_Firebird]

19. Mitt Romney became the Great White Hope

Romney assured all the depressed older white voters that he was indeed their Great White Hope.

[spanone]

20. k&r...