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Purveyor

(29,876 posts)
Wed Oct 10, 2012, 04:27 PM Oct 2012

The UnCOLA: Social Security Recipients To Get Puny Cost-Of-Living Boost (1.5% to 1.7%) In 2013

By Mary Beth Franklin

October 9, 2012 4:11 pm ET

Social Security recipients will receive a cost-of-living increase for 2013, but it will be only about half as large as the COLA they received this year, according to an unofficial estimate by the American Institute for Economic Research, an independent economic research in Great Barrington, Mass.

AIER economists estimate the 2013 increase to be between 1.5% and 1.7%, two percentage points below the 3.6 % increase seniors received for 2012.

The Social Security Administration will announce the official cost-of-living adjustment for 2013 on October 16. The federal government determines the size of a Social Security COLA based on the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners (CPI-W) from the third quarter of one year to the third quarter of the next.

“Because the CPI-W includes items with prices that rise more slowly than everyday purchases – refrigerators, for example – as well as items that get cheaper over time, the increase in Social Security checks coming in January may not be sufficient to cover the rising cost of everyday goods,” said Steven Cunningham, director of research and education for AIER.

MORE...

http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20121009/BLOG05/121009934

16 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies

Robb

(39,665 posts)
2. We're on Year 4 of no COLA.
Wed Oct 10, 2012, 04:38 PM
Oct 2012

Beats being fired, I suppose. Public sector here.

But my own griping notwithstanding, there's no comparison; Social Security needs to keep pace with the cost of goods, as it's a lifeline and the only option for so many.

 

HiPointDem

(20,729 posts)
9. not exactly. they've made hedonic and other adjustments to the calculations.
Wed Oct 10, 2012, 04:54 PM
Oct 2012

you know, if steak goes up, you can always eat hamburger...walmart slime...bugs...for your protein, etc.

JoePhilly

(27,787 posts)
11. So what are the specific recent changes?
Wed Oct 10, 2012, 05:06 PM
Oct 2012

I see OPs like this, and they suggest that something evil has happened recently, without saying that specifically.

Did the Obama administration recently reclassify Hamburger as Steak?

Periodically the members of the DOW 30 change. Same for S&P 500. So on.

Is the suggestion that the COLA is being manipulated? If one is not paying attention, they might walk away from the data presented and assume manipulation.

I've been on line since I posted my question about this, and I don't find any recent changes in how its calculated. But that does not mean they don't exist ... maybe I just have not found them. Would not be the first time.

 

HiPointDem

(20,729 posts)
14. you asked about 'since 1973'. 1973 = about 40 years ago, not 'recently'.
Thu Oct 11, 2012, 12:09 AM
Oct 2012

so i dunno where you get: "I see OPs like this, and they suggest that something evil has happened recently, without saying that specifically."

Since its inception, the CPI has been comprehensively
revised on six occasions to implement updated samples and
weights, expanded coverage, and enhanced methodologies.


For example, the 1998 revision, the most recent one, introduced
more timely consumer spending weights; updated geographic
and housing samples; a revised item classification
structure; a new housing index estimation system; computer-assisted
data collection; and a new Telephone Point-of-Purchase
Survey.

BLS also has made important improvements
to the CPI beyond the major revision processes, an example
being the introduction of the geometric mean formula in January
1999.


Table 1, on the following pages, provides a chronology
of revisions and improvements to the CPI, and appendix
3 displays historical changes in base period,
population coverage, and other index characteristics.


http://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/homch17.htm


Example of change in the 1998 revisions:

- Extended the use of hedonic regression to estimate the value of items changing in quality = more use of the hedonic adjustment

There have been three 'comprehensive' & 2 non-comprehensive overhauls of the CPI since 1973.

JoePhilly

(27,787 posts)
16. Right ... so to my primary point ... as you state, there have not been any recent changes.
Thu Oct 11, 2012, 01:20 PM
Oct 2012

The OP presents the decline ... and I would suggest, as described, the OP leaves the impression that something's been done recently to cause the decrease.

I've seen emails from right wingers that have argued that the lack of a COLA increase, or a reduced COLA year over year, is something that Obama did to hurt seniors.

The article in the link leaves a similar impression.

RebelOne

(30,947 posts)
5. Well, it is more of a raise than I got at my former job.
Wed Oct 10, 2012, 04:40 PM
Oct 2012

Our raises only amounted to 1% of our total yearly salaries and we would not get them every year. I am collecting SS and really did not think there would be a COLA raose this year. It took 3 years to get the one we received this year.

dixiegrrrrl

(60,010 posts)
12. That COLA means I get an extra 9.00 a month.
Wed Oct 10, 2012, 05:24 PM
Oct 2012

Which is good, since the charge to simply be hooked up to the gas company will be 9.00 a month in Jan.
Of course, Medicare premiums are scheduled to increase also.

sad sally

(2,627 posts)
10. How about civilian federal workers, 2.3 million of them. In 2013 they will be in their third year
Wed Oct 10, 2012, 04:56 PM
Oct 2012

of no pay raises. I guess inflation is non-existant for them.

dixiegrrrrl

(60,010 posts)
13. Medicare Part B will go up about 7.00 next year.
Wed Oct 10, 2012, 05:29 PM
Oct 2012

Virtually all seniors pay the Part B premium for outpatient care, including those with traditional Medicare as well as those in private plans. Currently $99.90 a month, the Part B premium is expected to rise by about $7 for 2013, according to the government's own projections.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/breaking/chi-medicare-drug-premiums-set-to-jump-in-2013-20120925,0,796177.story

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