With tonights victory Romney will have a total of 17 delegates or 1.49% of the 1144 he needs.

[grantcart]

Demconwatch is back with great totals including following the superdelegates

http://www.demconwatchblog.com/

Romney wants to call it a ball game even though he doesn't have 2% of the delegates he needs for nomination.

But he is doing a such a good job of building good relations with the other candidates,

maybe they will just pack it in. hahhahahahhhahahhahhahah.

[sabrina 1]

1. The question is, how much did that 2% cost him?

[grantcart]

4. Well with that gaffe it could be his whole chance to be the nominee.

[onenote]

7. Considering what he has available relative to what his opponents have

it didn't cost him that much. The other candidates spent a greater proportion of what they had for next to nothing.

Unless there is a surprising turn of events (and Romney's "I like to fire people" is already old news), the next couple of primaries will further solidify Romney's front runner status. To the extent his opponents stay in the race through Super Tuesday, they will be very limited in the number of states in which they will be able to compete compared to Romney. After Super Tuesday, most will drop out and the forging of a pretend party unity will begin.

[sabrina 1]

15. Gingrich is still getting a lot of money though, the gods only know why, the man is a walking

disgrace to this country. Saw a poll today that said 58% of Republicans are not happy with the candidates. Is it too late for Jeb to jump in I wonder? Although a more likely scenario would Mitt/Jeb I suppose. Not sure how Americans want another Bush in the WH.

Still, anything can happen, but from the beginning I did think he was the most likely to win considering the money he has and that the rest of them were so completely off the wall.

Meant to add, for Democrats it would be better if Newt was the nominee, imo. Can't see him getting any votes outside of the Republican base and even they will be holding their noses.

[SixthSense]

2. Yeah, let's see what Gingrich does

with that $20 mil that just got dropped on his SuperPAC

he's got it out for Romney with a vengeance... might not be one dime of that actually go into anything else but negative TV for Romney

[grantcart]

3. yep this is going to the convention

[onenote]

9. Not. A. Chance.

No one has the money. No one will win enough delegates. Romney has matched or exceeded McCain's totals in Iowa and New Hampshire and with a split opposition and based on how he did in 2008, Romney is sitting pretty to capture a significant share of delegates in Michigan, Florida and Nevada. McCain didn't capture 50 percent of the vote in any primary until Super Tuesday and even then he only hit that mark in a few states (CT, NY, NJ) and didn't come close to capturing 50 percent of the votes cast on SuperTuesday overall. Yet, everyone knew it was over after SuperTuesday and it was officially at the beginning of March when McCain topped 1191 delegates. In short, it was over five months before the convention.

The same is going to be the case in 2012 barring some totally unexpected event derailing Romney.

[grantcart]

10. By comparing 2008 and 2012 it appears that you are unaware of the rules changes.

Republicans changed from winner take all to proportional primaries making it impossible for one candidate to get 51% if there are three or more active candidates.

The other major change is Citizens United.

Yesterday Gingrich received a donation from a single donor for $ 5 million dollars. He is going to buy as much TV in SC as Obama and Clinton did in 2008 COMBINED.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/10/us/politics/sheldon-adelson-a-billionaire-gives-gingrich-a-big-lift.html

But on Friday, the cavalry arrived: a $5 million check from Mr. Adelson to Winning Our Future, a “super PAC” that supports Mr. Gingrich. By Monday morning, the group had reserved more than $3.4 million in advertising time in South Carolina, a huge sum in a state where the airwaves come cheap and the primary is 11 days away. The group is planning to air portions of a movie critical of Mr. Romney’s time at Bain Capital, the private equity firm he helped found.

The last-minute injection underscores how the 2010 landmark Supreme Court ruling on campaign finance has made it possible for a wealthy individual to influence an election. Mr. Adelson’s contribution to the super PAC is 1,000 times the $5,000 he could legally give directly to Mr. Gingrich’s campaign this year.

Several people with knowledge of Mr. Adelson’s decision to donate to Winning Our Future said that it was born out of a two-decade friendship with Mr. Gingrich, his advocacy on behalf of Israel and his turbulent months as a presidential candidate.

The only way that it can be decided before the convention is everyone folds up and endorses Romney.

I don't think either Gingrich or Paul are lacking the ego to stick it out for convention time, but in both cases they will have as much money as they need to do what they want.

[onenote]

12. I'm well aware of the rules changes

But the fact that the contests aren't winner take all isn't going to matter once folks start dropping out and releasing their delegates. And that's what will start happening after SuperTuesday if not before. Only Paul may stay in and everyone knows (except maybe his devoted band of followers) that he doesn't have the depth of support to get beyond 20 percent. SuperTuesday will be a field day for Romney who is the only candidate with the money and organization to effectively compete in all of the states that will be in play. Huntsman theoretically could do well in the Northeast, but he's going to have to show that he can get 30 percent somewhere and so far he doesn't appear to be close. The game for the stop Mitt crowd will become "influence the VP choice" and to play that game they need to be willing to trade their support (and delegates). That will happen long before August.

[grantcart]

13. Your first sentence was "No one has the money"

That is obviously not the case, both Paul and Gingrich have all the money they want to stay in and keep their campaign alive.

After what happened to Pawlenty (he could be the leader if stayed in) there is no incentive to get out except for the possibillity of getting a spot on the ticket or in the cabinet.

Neither Gignrich nor Paul have any interest serving in a Romney administration so there is no insentive to get out.

Paul's interest in getting as big a splash at the convention as possible is a big incentive for him to stay and his younger supporters will not forgive him if he folds early.

Gingrich's interest in expanding his personal brand for book sales and speaker fees is enhanced the longer he stays.

Romney doesn't have the personal relationships with other establishment Republicans which is confirmed by his lack of superdelegate endorsements, so that isn't going to help him.

Key Republican factions have already started floating a draft campaign possibility, here are just a few of the most recent ones

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/286653/we-dont-have-our-team-field-rich-lowry

http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/286566/getting-brokered-convention-brian-bolduc

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/Ken-Walshs-Washington/2011/12/21/gop-nightmare-scenario-a-brokered-convention

http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/the-new-republican-primary-rules-make-it-possible-for-the-republican-establishment-to-steal-the-nomination-from-a-candidate-they-dont-like


Now I would agree that its a long shot but your over the top "Not a chance" is just silly. Romney only holds a small advantage over Gingrich in Florida and if Gingrich takes Florida that would put him ahead of Romney in delegates, even if Romney takes all three early contests because of Florida's size and the fact that they are exempted from the new rules and remain winner take all.

[onenote]

14. Romney just reported that he raised $24 million in Q4

and has $19 million on hand.

It will be interesting to see what sort of numbers Paul and Gingrich report. At the end of Q3 Gingrich had a few hundred grand available and was in debt to the tune of nearly $1.2 million. Paul had no debt and about $3 million on hand.
It will be interesting to see where Paul and Gingrich stand at the end of Q4. Undoubtedly they raised some cash and may not have spent it all, but there is no way that they have the kind of firepower that Mitt has (and will have) going into Super Tuesday. For Newt, its all or nothing. If he can't knock off Romney in SC (and he can't) his stock will decline in Florida. So he has to spend wildly in SC, which will leave him weakened in Florida. Basically, he's going to be tapped out and when he stops being able to pay staff, they will move on and his campaign will be over. As I indicated, Paul will stay in whether or not he has the money. But he's never going to be more than a 20 percent man and that's not going to be enough to keep Mitt from capturing the nomination well before the convention.

Maybe "Not a Chance" was too strong. Maybe I should have said "only a teeny weeny itsy bitsy blink and you won't see it" chance.

on edit: I just took a look at the articles linked in your post and, frankly, if anything, they seem to bolster my point. One suggests that a brokered convention is possible but implausible based on a scenario in which Paul gets 25 percent in Iowa, Romney 20 and Gingrich 15, with Santorum dropping out after Iowa. It goes on to postulate that Romney is held to 30 percent in NH with Paul at 25 and Huntsman at 15, and Huntsman drops out. It then goes on to anticipate Gingrich getting 50 percent in SC and 55 percent in Florida. Now, we can't yet say for certain what will happen in SC or FL, but I for one will eat my hat if Gingrich gets anywhere near 50 or 55 percent in those two contests. Certainly the author of this scenario doesn't have a great track record. In Iowa Mitt and Paul traded places from what was predicted with Mitt getting 25 percent and Paul around 21 percent. Santorum not only didn't do so badly he had to drop out, he actually challenged for the win. Only Gingrich did as forecast. Moving on to NH, Romney got close to 40 percent, not the 30 percent forecast. Paul came close to the forecast 25 percent, but fell short and Huntsman actually did slightly better than the scenario predicted, and thus hasn't dropped out. In any event, for an implausible scenario, there isn't much room for error and its underestimate of Romney's strength in NH is a killer for its forecast.

Similarly, another of the articles contemplating a brokered convention assumes that Bachmann and Perry will come to the convention with a body of delegates that they can trade. That seems unlikely.

Finally, one of the articles suggests that the new rules are designed to make it possible for the Republican establishment to ensure that the nomimnation doesn't go to someone they don't want to get the nomination. That may be true, but the fact is that the Republican establishement is okay with Mitt as the nominee (even if a large segment of the party "base" isn't). How do we know this to be the case? Because the Republican "establishment" is where the money is -- always has been alway will be. And its support for Romney, however unenthusiastic, is reflected in the big bucks that Romney is pulling in.

[grantcart]

16. I never said that Romney didn't raise a lot of money,

You said that 'no one has the money' which is not only not the case but misses exactly the point I was making.

Gingrich raised $ 5 million in one day for South Carolina.

This is a new ball game. You don't have to get a base of donors, just a couple of really rich ones that will write big checks. This is an entirely new game.

Romney could win Iowa, NH and South Carolina and because an exception is made for Florida to keep it a winner take all, that if Gingrich wins Florida (where he is only 8 points behind) he would have more delegates than Romney.


Both Paul and Gingrich will have all of the money they need to go as far as they want to.

Both Paul and Gingrich have no interest in joining a theoretical Romney administration but both have powerful incentives (one ideological and one personal - even petty ego) to continue.


Paul wants to continue the battle into every state so that he can build an organization that his son can use in the future to run for President (an ironic twist on Romney trying to fulfill his fathers ambition).

Gingrich wants to promote his personal brand and simply wants to be on TV as much as possible.


If they both continue Romney won't get his 51% and will have to slug it out at the convention.


I think that you are probably right that Romney is going to get it but he will have to nail it down at the convention.


As for the examples I just tossed up a few. There are a lot more. For example the Governor of Michigan, one of Romney's 'home' states has cursed the whole field and openly stated that he hopes that there will be a new candidate at the convention.


Finally the most emperical point that shows how tentative the establishment is on Romney is the lack of super delegates. Four years ago Clinton had over a hundered by Iowa and Obama had several dozen. Romney has a pitiful 13. Some 150 other Super delegates have looked at this pathetic field and still cannot drag themselves to endorse Romney. Romney neve went across the country raising money for congressional candidates the way that other 'front runners' have. In NH he got endorsements by having his Super Pac make direct campaign contributions. This isn't going to get him very far.


http://www.democraticconventionwatch.com/diary/4726/republican-superdelegate-endorsement-list

[onenote]

17. Romney is actually doing very well in the superdelegate hunt

The problem with your comparison between Romney's super delegate number and Clinton's and Obama's numbers in 2008 is that there are only 132 repub superdelegates in 2012 compared to 853 Democratic superdelegates in 2008. Thus, Romney's 13 superdelegates is equivalent to 85 Democratic super delegates in 2008. Obama had 82 superdelegates in mid-February, so Romney already is doing better in terms of nailing down super delegates. Plus, Clinton had a lot of superdelegates early on, whereas no one challenging Romney has been able to make a dent in the superdelegate hunt. In short, Romney is sitting in a stronger position vis a vis superdelegates today than Obama was doing at a comparable point in time in 2008.

[Oreo]

5. Thanks Grantcart

He's actually at 20 delegates since Santorum and Huntsman both came in under 10%.
We'll see how long it goes. Depends on how long the other candidates want to stay in. Since it's no longer winner-take-all in all of the states it could drag on much longer than with the old rules.

Oh... and you should use our new domain name: https://www.democraticconventionwatch.com

[grantcart]

6. Thanks for the updated link

Yes its remarkable both Santorum and Gingrich (I believe the late hours may have caused you to interpose the names) to fall below the magical 10%

For those who are interested democraticconventionwatch.com will be the authority on keeping track of the Republican superdelegates, just as they were on the Democratic ones four years ago.

I am one of the few that think that this is going all the way to the convention. Moreover I think they will end up drafting one of the Republican governors rather than go with the current crowd.

[WI_DEM]

8. 17! Wow! he's the nominee. I wonder why the media wants to rush this thing

[onenote]

11. My guess is that the media would love to see it continue but realize it won't

Its pretty clear Perry isn't a contender and Gingrich, despite pouring a lot of money into South Carolina doesn't appear to have a comeback in him. Bachmann and Cain are gone gone gone. Paul's support is naturally capped and for the moment, the big question about Huntsman is why is he staying in the race. Even without winner take all, the road is pretty clear for Romney. After he scores wins in South Carolina and Florida (improving on his own 2008 performances in those states and pretty much matching McCain's performance), the others will start dropping off because the money will be gone. Gingrich and Huntsman might stay the course through Super Tuesday, but they will not have the funding to match Romney across all of those states. As they drop out, it will become a two man race with Paul staying in, but his support is capped and the republican establishment will rally around Mitt and the tea baggers will come to realize that their only hope is to get a kindred soul on the ticket as VP and to have any leverage in the VP process they need to lay down arms against Mitt.