Nate Silver, on Twitter: We now have Obama as a ~70/30 favorite, same as before conventions.

[highplainsdem]

https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/255768673569103872

Nate Silver
@fivethirtyeight

With further gains by Romney today, we now have Obama as a ~70/30 favorite, same as before conventions. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

3:36 PM - 9 Oct 12

He updated the Five Thirty Eight Forecast at 4:25 PM ET.


Nov. 6 Forecast:

Obama 297.2, Romney 240.8

Chance of winning: Obama 71.4%, Romnet 28.6%



Now-cast:

Obama 297.0, Romney 241.0

Chance of winning: Obama 76.4%, Romney 23.6%

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

1. In other words: Keep calm and carry on.

[flamingdem]

3. Exactly. Those odds are okay, Romeny wish he had them

and it makes it not believable if the pugs attempt a theft

[aletier_v]

11. screw that. I liked 97% a LOT better than 75%

[demwing]

13. No, I will not screw that

not even with your...junk...

[Brother Buzz]

17. That was Nate Silver's number on 27 September

If the election were held today, meanwhile, Obama has an astounding 97.8 percent chance of winning, according to Silver.

http://www.businessinsider.com/nate-silver-obama-odds-romney-win-election-prediction-five-thirty-eight-2012-9#ixzz28qlUodWx

[ChairmanAgnostic]

6. you mean - - - we can't go, "NYAH NYAH NYAH" to our fiendly local romney supporter?

[Spitfire of ATJ]

15. Don't you mean "Obama hater"?

I mean,...let's face it,...they don't actually support Romney,...he was just the last one standing in a field of misfits, retreads and jokes.

[LiberteToujours]

20. Last week, I would have agreed with you

Now, there are a lot more people who actually like him. This is a problem we'd do best not to ignore.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

21. "Now, there are a lot more people who actually like him"

Are you kidding?

The Conservatives are screaming, "See? I told you he was a phony!!!" and typical Americans meeting him for the first time on that debate didn't believe him.

Since then he held a foreign policy speech that wasn't about promoting a post war peace but promoted more and more war.

After WWII the Germans and Japanese became our friends. This guy acts like there will never be peace as long as there are guys wearing scary hats in the world. People aren't buying the fear anymore. 9/11 was so long ago that kids born back then are in junior high. Besides, Obama ended the war when he killed bin Laden, which Romney didn't want to do.

People don't like lying politicians,...ones who say anything to trick their way into office.

So who are these "lot more people"?

[msongs]

2. good thing for romney his social security plan is similar to the president's nt

[jimlup]

4. The trend is scary as hell though...

I don't like the slope of the line right now. Are the American people that stupid - Oh wait they elected G. W. Bush twice.

Nevermind...

[barbtries]

9. no they didn't

but we need to keep it too big of a gap for them to steal it again.

[Cha]

5. Yes, Push On and Move Forward..

http://theobamadiary.com/

[WillyT]

7. K & R !!!

[krawhitham]

8. We were static right before the conventions, not trending in the wrong direction like now

[rtracey]

10. Well

After Joe Biden has his way with Eddie Munster, and The Pres, whacks Romney in the next 2 debates, you watch those numbers shoot up. They need to POUND into the heads of the voters the unemployment figures....4 years people, lowest in 4 years, created positive number of jobs. 565,000 or so, GM, to hire 10,000 high tech employees....all Romneys lies....Pound...Pound...Pound

[DisabledAmerican]

12. told you so

[geek tragedy]

14. Obama's prospects are gong down each day. nt

[Spitfire of ATJ]

16. I just had to laugh at your user name.

[demwing]

18. I suck at typing

but I thought "gong down" was a new classic in the making.

It has a sound. It sounds perfect. I like art when it's inadvertent.