Krugman: Jobs Conspiracy? No its the retiring Baby Boomers stupid.

[ErikJ]

Truth About Jobs
By PAUL KRUGMAN, 10/8/12

If anyone had doubts about the madness that has spread through a large part of the American political spectrum, the reaction to Friday’s better-than expected report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics should have settled the issue. For the immediate response of many on the right — and we’re not just talking fringe figures — was to cry conspiracy....................It was nonsense, of course. Job numbers are prepared by professional civil servants, at an agency that currently has no political appointees................ Is the U.S. employment picture getting better? Yes, it is....................................

......................On the employer side, the current numbers say that over the past year the economy added 150,000 jobs a month, and revisions will probably push that number up significantly. That’s well above the 90,000 or so added jobs per month that we need to keep up with population. (This number used to be higher, but underlying work force growth has dropped off sharply now that many baby boomers are reaching retirement age.) But remember those aging baby boomers: the fraction of American adults who are in their prime working years is falling fast. Once you take the effects of an aging population into account, the numbers show a substantial improvement in the employment picture since the summer of 2011..........
............
we should be doing better — a shortfall largely due to the scorched-earth tactics of Republicans, who have blocked any and all efforts to accelerate the pace of recovery. (If the American Jobs Act, proposed by the Obama administration last year, had been passed, the unemployment rate would probably be below 7 percent.)
.......................
The furor over Friday’s report revealed a political movement that is rooting for American failure, so obsessed with taking down Mr. Obama that good news for the nation’s long-suffering workers drives its members into a blind rage. It also revealed a movement that lives in an intellectual bubble, dealing with uncomfortable reality — whether that reality involves polls or economic data — not just by denying the facts, but by spinning wild conspiracy theories. It is, quite simply, frightening to think that a movement this deranged wields so much political power.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/08/opinion/krugman-truth-about-jobs.html?_r=0

[momrois]

1. I've been shouting about this for a long time

I think that the boomers (I happen to be one) are finally retiring because the economy, and their retirement accounts, has improved enough that they feel that they can now. This will open up spots that these boomers have been hanging onto out of fear that their retirement funds went down the Bush hole never to return. Younger people will now be able to get into the game despite the Republicans' recalcitrance.

[yellowcanine]

4. I am biding my time, still waiting for a little more recovery. Plus I want to hold off on SS as

long as possible. And if I am healthy and enjoying what I am doing there is no reason to rush retirement.

[porphyrian]

2. . n/t

[yellowcanine]

3. We are facing labor shortages in near future in some professional fields because of this.

This bodes well for the workers who retrain and for young people who work hard to get trained in key areas.

[SheilaT]

5. Interesting. I seem to recall reading some stuff

back in the 1970's or so that indicated that the Baby Boom generation would suck up most jobs for quite a while, and that the generation behind them would have crappy job prospects for a very long time, until the Boomers started retiring. While clearly economic ups and downs also matter, the "Pig in the Python" (one vivid description of the Boom generation) is finally beginning to, well, come to an end.

[Cha]

6. Thank You, Paul Krugman!

Thanks, ErikJ

[jtuck004]

7. These statistics from BLS say that headline above is not accurate.

I'm not sure why anyone is wasting time trying to refute Welch and Trump, what a waste of useful time, but look for yourself at the BLS numbers...

http://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat03.htm

The percentages just aren't there to support a contention that the BB's are even close to a major cause. Not insignificant, but Krugman said when removing BB's from the mix it looks better. He NOT say that baby boomers were the proximal cause as the flashy headline above implies. It assumes just because they turned 65 that they no longer work, yet we know that a full third have nothing except Social Security to survive on, which is very close to poverty. Take a look at the demographic breakdowns behind the BLS report. It does not indicate the millions who would have retired at 65 that are continuing to work, or say they want or need to work and cannot find a job.

Work force growth stopped not only because of BB's but also because of decreased immigration and less families being created, millions going on disability, living from their 401(k) because they have no job, early retirements that were not age related, other reasons. Baby Boomers are not the largest number, at least not yet.

And even if they were, they are working in record numbers, and those numbers are still growing. Read here, also citing BLS info, where it shows the greater than 100% increase over the years in the number of people over 65 remaining in the work force.

BLS expects the growth in employment to continue. During the period 2006-2016, workers age 55-64 are expected to climb by 36.5% and the number of workers between the ages of 65 and 74 and those aged 75 and up are predicted to soar by more than 80%.

Krugman notes "None of this should be taken to imply that the situation is good, or to deny that we should be doing better "

The proximal cause with problems in the BLS report is the tinfoil the naysayers are wearing, not the Baby Boomers.