General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsPew freak out. Nate Silver says, "Get a grip."
https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/255412550932516864
Pew has Romney ahead by 4 points among likely voters, tied among registered voters (updated)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021495453
Pew Poll states the obvious: If actual electorate is R+3, Obama loses
Well, let's look in Pew's documentation (linked above), particularly in a section entitled, "Patters of Voter Support, September-October."
Did Romney's debate performance pluck some Democratic support away from Obama? Nope. The president's lead is virtually unchanged within his own party, from 93-5 in September to 94-5 now.
Did Romney strengthen himself among Republicans? Hardly, these numbers shifted from 92-5 to 91-7.
Did Romney achieve a major breakthrough among Independents? Only if you consider a 2-3 point shift within each candidate major (from Obama leading 45-44 to Romney ahead 46-42).
<...>
In other words, we've learned something we should already have known. That if the electorate on Nov. 6 is 3 percentage points more
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/08/1141808/-Pew-Poll-states-the-obvious-If-actual-electorate-is-R-3-Obama-loses
The independent numbers are wrong there (it's actually Obama 48, Romney 47), but point taken.
PEW! ...somethin' stinks!
Reps: 392
Dems: 361
50+ voters outnumber everyone else more than 2-1
White (non-Hispanic) voters surveyed: 869
Everyone else: 173 (!!!)
Note: This is from the LIKELY VOTER column.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/08/1141800/-PEW-somethin-stinks
gabeana
(3,166 posts)no need to be running down the hall with your hair on fire, like some others on DU
patrice
(47,992 posts)we predicted it one way or another and, therefore, want to be right.
theKed
(1,235 posts)It's pretty heavily weighted towards older, white folks (compare white to black and hispanic numbers, and the 50+ age group to all the others).
As you were, everybody.
The Magistrate
(95,247 posts)We will see how the week develops.
"Come back with your shield, or on it."
Blaukraut
(5,693 posts)Notice how all evening news led with the 'Romney is ahead' and 'Debate was game changer' themes, showing the Pew poll as evidence. We all know that, while the Pew poll may well be accurate, it was taken during the three days following the debate, where the post Romney-Gasm glow was still in full bloom. We also know that the trackers Gallup, Ras, Rand, and Ipsos, are more representative of the current voter sentiment. But don't count on the MSM to accurately report on ALL polls.
The scary thing here is that the media narrative will drive the national mood. If Romney is being presented as the winner and comeback kid, the American people will believe it and thereby creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.
There is not a lot of time left to put a stop to Romney's MEDIA momentum, and there will be no help from said media whatsoever. This wound was in part self-inflicted. Obama needed to be stronger in the debate, and he blew it. No use in crying over spilled milk, however. There is no margin for error going forward. The upcoming debates must be flawless, and there absolutely cannot be any gaffes on our side.
spanone
(135,841 posts)winstars
(4,220 posts)I normally would not rely on my opponent making an error but he is consistent, give him a few days, he will deliver.
nc4bo
(17,651 posts)ailsagirl
(22,897 posts)Glimmer of Hope
(5,823 posts)What is he hiding?
Cha
(297,275 posts)SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Conservative - 530
Moderate - 420
Liberal - 221
So, they interviewed 2 1/2 times as many Conservatives as Liberals?
Makes you go hmmmm..
Sid
I noted that as well.
GoneOffShore
(17,340 posts)SidDithers
(44,228 posts)I'm just here to be entertained. But thanks for the kind words
Sid
ProSense
(116,464 posts)I've been inspired by Mitterature.
Cha
(297,275 posts)were here to Entertain!
kevink077
(365 posts)Chris Matthews and Rachel Maddow did way more to hurt Obama them Obama did. Obama did fine in the debate and his answers were sound. I will not watch MSNBC as I cannot stomach them anymore, their hysteria is nauseating. Obama will come on strong this last month and win, take it to the bank.
SunSeeker
(51,560 posts)And again stated emphatically that Romney won the debate and Obama lost the debate.
She would just assume have Romney win to teach the left a "lesson". Her dramatics are over the top and the left needs to just stop watching. These clowns are really hurting the Democratic party. Her and Hysterical Chris need to take a good month long vacation. Lets get some rational people on the air.
DisabledAmerican
(452 posts)Apparently the so called DU Jury hasn't learned that this is a Outlier poll. I tried to report one who used the poll as a excuse to down Obama's Debating. It's sad that the behavior is allowed when a Outlier poll is the issue. I mean seriously I thought this place was suppose to be Dem why are people allowed to use a horrible poll that people have proven as a outlier to attack Obama? The excuse that they are freaking out is not true they know what they are doing when blaming Obama. Sunday was a great bounce for Obama with the Job numbers.
meadowlark5
(2,795 posts)Why is that considered a good sampling? I thought Pew was supposed to be a credible outfit. That doesn't look credible at all. It's crap, it's junk.
Gabi Hayes
(28,795 posts)to the Liberty League and then the John Birch Society!
dunno what their current deal is, but their provenance is suspect, to say the least
meadowlark5
(2,795 posts)I did not know that. I've heard it referred to as credible but that poll sure didn't seem credible.
Good to know.
Barack_America
(28,876 posts)449 vs. 219 from the Northeast, for example.
reformist2
(9,841 posts)Barack_America
(28,876 posts)...about the election.
Great. Very useful.
patrice
(47,992 posts)patrice
(47,992 posts)hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)bluestateguy
(44,173 posts)As it was in 2004, when the Bush team had an excellent turnout operation.
2008 was +7 (D). That is not likely again.
There has never been a +3 (R) electorate in the history of exit polling, at least in presidential elections.
I think a +2 or +3 (D) is probably more likely. Yes Obama has lost some ground; that is not in dispute. But that would only be an accurate poll if that was what the electorate looked like.
Cha
(297,275 posts)Jeff Gauvin
[font size=large]@JeffersonObama According to the BELTWAY & Pew Narrative (based on their cross tabs) only white men over 50 WILL VOTE pic.twitter.com/9jJ7WsMu #POLLS #p2[/font]
http://theobamadiary.com/2012/10/08/chavez/#comments
Gabi Hayes
(28,795 posts)is the same as on this joke