Pew has Romney ahead by 4 points among likely voters, tied among registered voters (updated)

[ProSense]

The gain is almost entirely among white Republicans.





http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/08/romneys-strong-debate-performance-erases-obamas-lead/

Obama lost two points among independents, Romney gained one point.

Obama lost 7 points among blacks, Romney lost 4 points.

Obama gained a point among Democrats, and Romney lost a point.

Obama lost 5 points among Republicans, and Romney gained 3 point.

Updated to add, poll was unskewed:

Current LV

Republican 36 percent
Democrat 31 percent
Independent 30 percent

September LV

Republican 29 percent
Democrat 39 percent
Independent 30 percent


Current RV

Republican 33 percent
Democrat 32 percent
Independent 31 percent


September RV

Republican 28 percent
Democrat 37 percent
Independent 31 percent

http://www.people-press.org/files/legacy-pdf/10-8-12%20Political%20Release.pdf

[DisabledAmerican]

2. out liner

[Roselma]

5. I hope so. Gallup has Obama up by 5 today.

[Care Acutely]

50. That's "outlier"

As in, to lie outside of normal range. Just a friendly FYI. Carry on.

[phleshdef]

3. I don't believe the African American change is reality.

I don't question Pew's methodology. I think they are a credible polling firm. But I don't believe Romney really gained 7 percent more of the African American vote.

[ProSense]

7. No he lost support, but so did Obama n/t

[Laura PourMeADrink]

4. this sucks. look at those women numbers. time to show the real romney

who wants to get rid of planned parenthood and bomb innocents in Iran

[Laura PourMeADrink]

24. PHEW...they just explained it on MSNBC

Obama was up before and after the debate. The debate bounce for a couple days was Romney's. The Pew poll measured this - what they said was Obama's worse polling period in the last week.

[gabeana]

33. So is this good news for Obama

meaning this is just noise from the debate

[Laura PourMeADrink]

65. lord I hope so. Fallout from debate I think is real to some degree

[BeyondGeography]

6. 88% of the black vote...poll falls apart right there

[ProSense]

10. It's post-debate high

for Republicans.

[Cattledog]

8. Romney the new Reagan?

Who would have thought!

[ProSense]

12. No, he lost a point among Democrats

There are no Romney Democrats, just the typical right-leaning group of about 8 percent.

[alcibiades_mystery]

16. Say Reagan again...you haven't quite spammed the entire board with that opinion

You should say it at least 50 more times!

[sharp_stick]

41. We should start a pool

see if he actually makes it that far.

[andym]

35. Romney thought this!

He's been saying its Reagan/Carter 2.

[JaneyVee]

49. If Romney is the new Reagan that means he would triple the deficit & size of Govt

Just like Reagan did.

[Care Acutely]

57. Well - just LOOK AT YOU and your Reagan-ness, Reaganocity, whatever.

"This race is closer than you think. If you don't think Obama's in trouble you're deluding yourself. The 2008 mojo is gone. If he wins by 2 million I'd be surprised...this just might be another 2000. "
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=580591

"Liberals don't read."
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=1138790

"No apology. Only spineless liberals apologize."
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1017&pid=33985

"Pew a 9pt swing to Romney up 49-45
Ouch! Reagan type swing!"
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251126408

"Carter Reagn type change...O is in trouble."
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=126430

and of course this one, "Romney the new Reagan?"
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=1495497

[hrmjustin]

9. I think this poll does not make sense.

[ProSense]

17. Evidently,

Republicans like liars. Still, this chart is telling.

[hrmjustin]

26. Biden will have to kick some but thursday.

[nc4bo]

61. Romney? New ideas? gtfoohwtbs.

They are a combo of 30 year old trickle down bs coupled with whatever populist idea Obama is running with at any given moment.

The only thing new is that some of it is coming out of WilLIARd's mouth.

Some people are so very incredibly stupid.

[boxman15]

11. This poll is probably an outlier. So is MSNBC's most likely.

What we're looking at now is probably what Gallup says they've seen the past 3 days (not the 7 day average) which is an extremely close, virtually tied election.

[cthulu2016]

13. Are all the polls outliers?

[boxman15]

19. No. But it's very hard for me to believe either candidate is up by 4-5 points right now.

47-47 seems about right, which is what Gallup has seen the past few days.

[DisabledAmerican]

21. WRONG Obama is ahead in the latest polls stop spreading the 47 point lie

[Puddy]

45. I don't understand.....

Whats the lie? According to Gallup's post-debate Oct. 4th-6th poll it's a tie. ][link:http://www.gallup.com/poll/157907/romney-narrows-vote-gap-historic-debate-win.aspx|

[ProSense]

46. Here ya go, Puddy:

Today's Gallup - 50 Obama to 45 Romney
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021494231

http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx

Just for you, and welcome.

[Puddy]

47. Thanks for the response I will ignore the 3 day poll.... Thanks again!

[DisabledAmerican]

20. There is no TIE Obama is ahead in all polls

[cthulu2016]

40. Do you realize what OP you're writing that in?

[reformist2]

14. How is Obama -6 overall when he's only -2 among independents?? Thse poll numbers are crap.

[OldDem2012]

18. Hmmm. This poll is based on REGISTERED voters, not LIKELY voters...

....big difference, don't you think?

Additionally, I'm having a hard time understanding where they found the 7% change among blacks. That doesn't make any sense to me...I'd have to see the numbers and demographics involved.

[cthulu2016]

23. Re-read the chart

[OldDem2012]

30. How big was the sample in all categories? nt.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

22. This poll is through October 7. The job numbers haven't taken affect yet.

[regnaD kciN]

28. October 7th was YESTERDAY...

I'm more curious about the daily distribution of samples -- although the poll is entirely post-debate, it includes both the Friday which other polls suggest was a big pro-Romney day, and a Sunday which, likewise, seems to have been a big Obama day. How many samples in the Pew survey were taken on each day? If approximately equal, that could indicate we've still got a problem. If more samples were taken Thursday-Friday, it could provide a more logical explanation. In any event, I'd be leery of any non-tracker taken before today -- there was simply too much volatility from Thursday through Sunday to draw conclusions from a poll taken sometime in that period.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

32. Right. That's my point. The job numbers were out Friday. It'll take some time for those job numbers

to reflect true opinion. We need to wait a few days.

[ProSense]

36. You're making good points.

I think the RW is driving everyone crazy. I'm still pissed that Gravis is still being factored into the averages.

RCP has two Gallup tracking numbers, and one includes the other.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

37. What Do You Think Of My Conclusion In Post 34?

.

[regnaD kciN]

53. Semi-agree...

If few of the Pew numbers came from Sunday, and most from Thursday-Friday, it makes perfect sense. We can't know that, though, even if there are grounds to suspect it.

[Jennicut]

58. Only a little over a hundred were done Sunday.

Most of it was Thursday through Friday and some on Saturday per Huffington Post

[winstars]

60. Right, HP says 1046 of 1201 interviews taken Thursday-Saturday. Most probably from Thurs and Friday

We need new polling to see what really happened. Rmoney did well in the debate, no doubt, and then the jobs numbers and the almost fact checking by the MSM stopped his mojo. So if most had us down Thursday and Friday, that shit changed by the weekend. We need to calm down and see more polls come out. Hanging on every thing Gallup and Pew and Ras does and says and when they polled is fun but more data is needed to see just WTF happened after the debates... Lets see what shakes out by Wednesday and then hopefully Joe opens up a can of Whoop Ass on Lying Ryan...

Its been a couple of days since Mittens said or did something stupid, so he statisticly is due for a gaffe...

Soon...

[reformist2]

25. Here's an explanation: The fraction of independents went from 34% up to 41% between polls.

The fraction of Dems in the poll went down from 36% to 29%. Not very consistent there with your samples, Pew...

[Mass]

27. Pew has always been an extremely reactive poll. It was pleasant, but not very realistic, with Obama

up by 8. It is not realistic any more than before..

[DemocratSinceBirth]

34. I'm Thinking It Caught All Of The Bounce From The Debate For RobMe

And it missed the ebb from the good job numbers that almost every other pollster including Rasmussen and Gallup found.

[tallahasseedem]

29. This poll was to be expected...

the only thing that matters is that we GOTV!

[BumRushDaShow]

31. "Obama lost 5 points among Republicans, and Romney gained 3 point."

Ya think?

[andym]

38. Let's hope the bounce is transient. nt.

[7worldtrade]

39. Its consistent with 3 strong polling days for Romney after the debates

The problem with polling after any major event is that you see the immediate effect, not the lasting effect. Gallup's 7 day tracking was actually one of the polls that did a good job of smoothing out the immediate effects because of the long time frame. Of course, they completely eviscerated their credibility by publicly disseminating the numbers for each of the 3 days after the debate. I'm not sure they have ever done that before.

luckily, I think, most people I know (even die hard liberals) don't follow the polls on a day to day basis. Its a particular form of OCD for me.

[MFM008]

42. this makes me sad

[DisabledAmerican]

43. Looks like the doom and gloomers finally have their thread

[ProSense]

44. Let them keep pushing this poll.

Any poll that shows Obama with 94 percent of the Democratic vote, and Romney with 91 percent of the Republican vote is not good news for Romney.

The poll undersampled Democrats, and Romney's gains are entirely white Republicans.

That likely had something to do with the curious drop in black support across both candidates.

[OldDem2012]

56. Bingo. nt.

[OldDem2012]

48. Some background on Pew....

...The Pew Research Center is funded by The Pew Charitable Trusts :

"The Trusts, a single entity, is the successor to, and sole beneficiary of, seven charitable funds established between 1948 and 1979 by J. Howard Pew, Mary Ethel Pew, Joseph N. Pew, Jr., and Mabel Pew Myrin—the adult sons and daughters of Sunoco founder Joseph N. Pew and his wife, Mary Anderson Pew. The Trusts is based in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, with an office in Washington, D.C.

Although today the Pew Charitable Trusts is non-partisan and non-ideological, Joseph Pew and his heirs were themselves politically conservative. The mission of the J. Howard Pew Freedom Trust was to "acquaint the American people with the evils of bureaucracy and the values of a free market and to inform our people of the struggle, persecution, hardship, sacrifice and death by which freedom of the individual was won." Joseph N. Pew, Jr. called Franklin Roosevelt's New Deal "a gigantic scheme to raze U.S. businesses to a dead level and debase the citizenry into a mass of ballot-casting serfs."[2]

Most of the early beneficiaries were such conservative organizations as the John Birch Society, the American Liberty League, and the American Enterprise Institute,[3][4] although other beneficiaries included a cancer research institute, a museum, higher education, the American Red Cross, and historically black colleges. For many years, the Trusts tended to fund charities and conservative causes in Philadelphia.

In 2004, the Pew Trusts applied to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) to change its status from private foundation to non-profit organization. Since the Pew's change to a charitable foundation, it can now raise funds freely and devote up to 5% of its budget to lobbying the public sector."

Always follow the money...it usually tells you quite a bit.

[cthulu2016]

52. This is seriously foolish

Why didn't you post this three weeks ago when they had Obama up six among likely voters?

[OldDem2012]

55. 1. Because I don't believe I was on the board yet....

....my first comment was posted September 26th.

2. It's not possible to comment on every single post on DU if you have other things to do.

Just my opinion, but only the "seriously foolish" turn up their noses at good background intelligence that help you understand a possible bias. You don't have to like my posts, but you need to respect me as you would any other poster on DU.

[cthulu2016]

59. No, I do not have to respect you at all

[OldDem2012]

66. Well, if you're going to act like a spoiled two-year-old, I'll just treat you like one. nt.

[renate]

64. I do!

[hifiguy]

51. Repeat after me: National polls are meaningless.

Nate Silver taught us this valuable lesson four years ago.

[ProSense]

54. They are what they are. n/t

[underpants]

62. Obama had 13% support from Republicans???

REally???

[WI_DEM]

63. bottom line is we got to GOTV

[reformist2]

67. 100% of the move in the Pew Poll from Sep--> Oct can be explained by the change in sample.

When the percentage of Dems goes from 39--> 31%, and the percentage of Repubs jumps from 29% --> 36%, that's basically like taking 7% away from Obama and handing it to Romney right there. I'm actually surprised the October results weren't even more pro-Romney. That's not to say one poll is wrong, the other right. But because of the huge swing in voter identification between the two polls, it throws the results of all Pew polling into question.

Also of interest - the sample size for the October poll dropped from 2400 down to 1200. Why?