Democrats steadily gain in Senate races nationwide
By Jamelle Bouie
While most political observers have been focused on the size of Mitt Romney’s bounce from last week’s debate, something else has been happening at the state level — Democratic Senate candidates have begun to break away from their Republican opponents. In Virginia, after a year-long period of stability, Democrat Tim Kaine has finally begun to break away from Republican George Allen. In the most recent Rasmussen poll, he wins 52 percent to Allen’s 47 percent, which matches his overall favorability with Virginia voters.
Likewise, in Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren has built a solid lead over Scott Brown, in a race that was tied for most of the year. On average, according to Real Clear Politics, she leads by 3.5 percentage points. The most recent poll gives her a five-point lead over Brown among registered voters, with a 50 percent favorability rating. Earlier polls showed Warren building her support with Obama voters, and that is ongoing — she’s a short step away from winning 90 percent of Democratic voters in Massachusetts.
The polling in states such as Wisconsin, Ohio and Florida is less recent, but it shows a similar trend — Tammy Baldwin has built a 5-point lead over former Wisconsin governor Tommy Thompson, Sherrod Brown has maintained his advantage over Josh Mandel in Ohio, and Bill Nelson is still leading Connie Mack in Florida. And, thanks to the huge missteps of Todd Akin, the unpopular Claire McCaskill has found a path to reelection. If there’s a wild card, it’s in Arizona, where Democrat Richard Carmona has pulled within striking distance of Republican Jeff Flake. A GOP loss in Arizona would leave Democrats with a stronger position in the Senate than they currently hold.
It almost goes without saying that this is immensely significant for the next presidential administration. If President Obama wins reelection, a larger majority in the Senate — and a smaller Republican majority in the House — will give him a little more space to manuever, even if Senate Democrats still have to deal with procedural hurdles like the filibuster. It’s not guaranteed, but Democrats will probably get a better deal in the upcoming fiscal negotiations if they cut into the GOP’s advantage on the congressional level.
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