Gallup race tightened at some point, but tracking still shows Obama 49, Romney 46

[ProSense]

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Gallup typically reports voter presidential preferences in seven-day rolling averages; the latest such average as of Saturday interviewing shows Obama with an average three-point edge, 49% to 46%, among registered voters. This Sept. 30-Oct. 6 field period includes three days before the Oct. 3 debate, the night of the debate itself, and three days after the debate.

Even on this basis, the race has become somewhat more competitive compared with before the first debate. Obama held four- to six-point leads in Gallup's seven-day tracking results in the eight days prior to the Oct. 3 debate.



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http://www.gallup.com/poll/157907/romney-narrows-vote-gap-historic-debate-win.aspx

[madville]

1. Look at the table right above the graph you posted at the link

The three days before the debate it was O 50%, R 45%. The three days after the debate it was O 47%, R 47%. By about Thursday the graph you posted should show the 7 day average come closer together as the pre-debate days fall off.

[ProSense]

2. Yes, but

this is a seven-day rolling average.

Look at Sept 25 to Sept 28. Obama led by six. The race tightened to 49-45 by Sept 30. Clearly, Romney had some good polling days there. That's a pre-debate polling period.

My point is that even showing three days, especially given that's it steady at 47 percent, meaning it didn't increase for those three days, the current 49 to 46 is what Gallup shows. That point is made in the piece.

It's now five days post-debate.