Why The 2012 Election May Be The GOP’s Only Chance To Repeal Health Care Reform

[ProSense]

Why The 2012 Election May Be The GOP’s Only Chance To Repeal Health Care Reform

Sahil Kapur

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“The 2012 election will be the most important in the history of our health care system because it will determine whether the Affordable Care Act (ACA) is implemented or repealed,” wrote Harvard health policy expert David Blumenthal in the New England Journal of Medicine. “The consequences for Americans and their health care will be huge.”

An important caveat is that as long as there are 41 Democratic senators to mount a filibuster, total repeal won’t be easy. But if Republicans control the White House and both chambers of Congress (a real possibility come 2013), they could unravel the law by deliberately botching its implementation and potentially muscling through repeal of its less popular provisions — like the individual mandate — before the more popular ones take effect.

A GOP president could significantly weaken the Affordable Care Act using executive power alone: legal and health experts agree that the administration has considerable flexibility to grant waivers from its regulations and mandates. Pair that with a Congress and dozens of state governments hostile to the law and it’s in real danger.

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One reason is that public opinion of the Affordable Care Act may well improve once the major benefits kick in, as was the case with Medicare and Social Security, both of which were highly controversial at time of passage and likewise slammed by Republican opponents as ruinous to freedom.

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http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/01/why-the-2012-election-may-be-the-gops-only-chance-to-repeal-health-care-reform.php?ref=fpa

[Proud Liberal Dem]

1. Another reason why it's important to win in November

n/t

[zbdent]

2. Dems losing down to 41 Senators in DC will renew the "liberally-biased media's" memory of the term

"Nuclear Option" ...

[EC]

3. Isn't the Supreme Court taking up this case in the Summer?

So why is it even an issue? The Supremes will decide it's fate and it won't even matter in the election. Or am I missing something?

[Jim Lane]

4. It's very unlikely that the Supreme Court would throw out the entire Act.

I think the constitutional challenge is to the individual mandate. If the Act contains the normal "separability" language, the other provisions would be safe.

Even as to the mandate, the shameless right-wing stooges on the Court will have a dilemma. The mandate was the companion to the ban on the current practice of refusing coverage for pre-existing conditions. The concern was that, with no mandate, people would game the system -- just don't buy health insurance until your doctor tells you that you have cancer or whatever. The mandate is to prevent people from doing that.

If the Court were to overturn the mandate but not find a way to overturn the provision about pre-existing conditions, then people would game the system. That would quickly bankrupt the big for-profit private insurance companies. The Republicans in Congress would demand repeal of the provision about pre-existing conditions, but we can hope that surly Democrats would be in no mood to comply. Would the Roberts Court want to risk such a calamity for big business?

The bottom line is that there's a good chance the Supreme Court will reject the constitutional challenges to the Act. Even if it overturns the mandate, much of the Act will remain in place, and the analysis in the OP will still be largely correct.

[pampango]

5. It's certainly possible that the SC will overturn HCR though some think that is not likely.

A more accurate headline for the OP might be "Why The 2012 Election May Be The GOP’s Second and Last Chance To Repeal Health Care Reform".