The Plumline: Romney won big. Here’s what to watch for next.

[cali]

By Greg Sargent

Mitt Romney won decisively last night. Here’s a partial list of things to watch in order to gauge whether Romney is successfully reshaping the race in a fundamental way, which he needs to do.

1) Ohio. Obama leads by 5.5 points in the state in the Real Clear Politics average. No matter how good Romney was last night, that’s a steep hill to climb. If Romney doesn’t win Ohio, his path to electoral college victory is extremely daunting. Check out James Downie’s piece on how bad the electoral math currently looks for Romney and how hard it will be for him to overcome it.

Romney’s pedigree and profile are a terrible fit for Ohio. The state’s unemployment rate is lower than the national average; Romney opposed the auto bailout that seems to be partly responsible for that. One recent poll found that only 38 percent of voters there say he cares about the needs and problems of people like them. If Romney starts to make real gains in the state, that will be a sign that he changed voter perceptions of himself and his policies and priorities in a meaningful way that could turn this into a genuinely close contest.

2) Romney’s national “middle class”and “empathy” numbers. The fundamental problem Romney has, in poll after poll, is that people believe that Romney’s policies are skewed towards the rich, and that he doesn’t understand people’s problems. Last night Romney did manage, I think, to project an earnestness and passion about public policy (even if his plans are full of evasions and contradictions) that will go some way towards diluting his plutocratic image.

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/romney-won-big-heres-what-to-watch-for-next/2012/10/04/2904e22a-0e1f-11e2-bd1a-b868e65d57eb_blog.html

[adigal]

1. We shall see. Romney unscripted is his own worst enemy

He just cannot help it. If he has any encounters with real humans, he will say another stupid thing.

And I think there are more shoes to drop as far as things he has said to his supporters, and his tax returns. I think he paid NO taxes a number of years, and Obama might have that.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

2. Bringing up GM and watching Mitt flip flop would have helped.....

Ohio knows he's a liar, and reminding everyone would have been a good tact. But apparently the experts here thinks that might have made Obama look "angry" or "un-presidential".

[hrmjustin]

3. Obama needs to show up next debate.