U.Va. analysis: Obama has already won

[RandySF]

The team of Larry Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley said if the election were held today, Obama would win 290 Electoral Votes, Mitt Romney 204. And the 42 toss-up Electoral Votes would not be enough to help Romney even if he took them all.

Theirs is the first to essentially declare Obama the winner and it comes after they switched several battleground states from toss-up to leaning Democrat, including Virginia, Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada. The change mirrors new polling in those states and caps a two-week trend favoring Obama in state polls.

They caution that there are a few hurdles yet for Obama to clear, including the upcoming trio of presidential debates and continued bad economic reports. But they said those problems were only "theoretical" and concluded that "caution is always in order with almost six weeks to go, yet President Obama clearly leads at the moment."

What's more, with Obama's improving fortune is the likelihood he will have coattails for House and Senate candidates to grab onto. According to the new U.Va. analysis, the Senate looks to stay in Democratic hands and House Democrats will claw closer to control, but likely not win it.


http://washingtonexaminer.com/u.va.-analysis-obama-has-already-won/article/2509180#.UGx84H2UAqY

[TBF]

1. Larry's usually spot on and I think he is this time as well -

People just plain don't like Romney. Hardcore repugs will vote for him but he's so abrasive. That just does not play well with moderates.

[JaneQPublic]

2. That's assuming everyone votes. (nt)

[eissa]

3. Ugh, I don't like this

I'm sorry, I hate playing the role of Debbie Downer, but I just hate this "we have it in the bag" meme. Maybe it's because I was just as confident in '04, and I NEVER want to have that feeling that I did the day after that election. The election is not today, it's a month away, which can be a lifetime in an election cycle. So much could happen between now and November, let's keep our guard up.

[Curtland1015]

4. Don't worry. We aren't going to forget to vote.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. I Never Felt Confident About 04

Kerry was constantly trailing, kind of like the way Willard is.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. They Applied Their Model Retroactively. This Is The First Time It's Being Used Proactively

.

[Lucinda]

10. The article is from August...long before Romney's recent gaffes. n/t

[oswaldactedalone]

7. Regardless of Obama's standing as of today

keep donating, registering voters, answering any questions they have, getting them to their polling place, anything you can to help down ticket races. Also, winning some of these toss-up states adds to the narrative that Obama's win can't be called illegitimate or stolen.

We have to crush these maggots once and for all.

[porphyrian]

8. Say it loud...! n/t

[nichomachus]

11. The problem, of course, is that election is not going to be held today

These types of analyses are always stupid.

In politics, as the saying goes, a week is an eternity. And the corporate media has shown that it can create any reality it wants in about three weeks. There are five weeks between now and the election.

If the 2004 Democratic primary had been held in December 2003, Howard Dean would have been the undisputed winner. He was the "unbeatable front runner." By the middle of January he was declared "unelectable."

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. I Agree That The Predictions Are Good For The Day They Are Made

But presidential preferences are much more fixed at this point of a presidential election.

[Mojorabbit]

13. I want the House too! nt

[MADem]

14. GOTV. Get Out The Vote. It ain't over till it's over. Etc. nt