Romney is moving up in the polls.

[renie408]

Just checked RCP and Obama's numbers are still pretty much the same, but Romney is closing the gap.

This is incomprehensible to me.



http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

[Laurian]

1. Because he's not been seen much lately.

The more he's seen, the less he's liked. Once he comes out from debate prep, he'll do or say something stupid to remind people that he's a big zero.

[DainBramaged]

2. Have you ever really looked at RCP? At the front page ads? At the commentary?

Just askin'.







Illustrating the Tax Code's Progressivity
The folks at the Tax Foundation are concerned that the recent increase in talk about inequality will create a soak-the-rich atmosphere that will forestall tax reform that doesn't include


http://www.realclearpolicy.com/data_lab/2012/09/25/illustrating_the_tax_codes_progressivity_293.html

[geckosfeet]

7. Yes. For the math challenged this can be very confusing.

[graham4anything]

3. not in the swing states, Obama is getting a bigger and bigger lead in the individual

and on MSNBC, even rightwing synchopant Joe Scarborough said, all the state polls including internal polls in states Mitt needs to win (like Ohio and Iowa) are major changes.

Obama in Ohio alone is up from 45-45 in late august to a nine point lead today in Ohio(without which Mitt cannot get 270.)

nationwide polls are meaningless because Obama can lose Kansas 100-0 and win NY by one vote and win the election as it is the individual 270 count.

(and some of these polls include rasmussen in the national average, skewering the whole number.)

and Obama is in most of the states now over 50, and no matter how many undecideds, once someone is over 50, the other cannot win.

[gkhouston]

4. Wow, maybe tomorrow Nate Silver's chances of Romney winning will break 2%. n/t

[morningfog]

5. The elctoral map as of 10/1/12 (304 Safe EV for Obama:

http://election.princeton.edu/electoral-college-map/

[OffWithTheirHeads]

6. And here is a little secrete, we are going to turn Arizona blue.

[LynneSin]

17. I love that map

I've always seen idiot right-wingers claim that since technically more landspace is red that somehow they are the rightful party.

What idiots

[ProSense]

8. No he's not.

A couple of polls that showed Romney ahead a couple of months ago came in and dropped the average .4 points.

The Politico/GWU/Battleground and the WaPo/ABC poll now have the President up by 2 points.



http://www.politico.com/polls/politico-george-washington-university-battleground-poll.html

WaPo/ABC poll: Obama up 2 points nationally, up 11 points among swing-state voters
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021444351

The average showed the President up by 4.1 points yesterday, and after those two polls it's 3.7 points.

[CanonRay]

9. I don't see it, Romney's sinking in every swing state

Getting 92% in Idaho aint' gonna cut it for Mitt.

[CanonRay]

10. Go to Nate Silver's site and forget all this other BS

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[Samantha]

20. I have been there twice this morning and this is what I saw

Nate Silver said if the Presidential race were a football game, we have been in the fourth quarter for some time now. Romney is down a touchdown.

Current electoral college prediction: 320.1 versus 217.9 (advantage Obama)
Chance of winning: 85.1% versus 14.9% (advantage Obama)
Popular vote: 51.6 versus 47.4 (advantage Obama)

Important predictions key swing states:

Florida: 70.3 chance of an Obama win
Ohio: 86.1 chance of an Obama win
Virginia: 77.6 chance of an Obama win
Pennsylvania: 97.5 chance of an Obama win

My personal favorites:

Michigan: 97.4 chance of an Obama win
Wisconsin: 90.2 chance of an Obama win (once again, thanks Paul Ryan)

I personally do not see how even the debates will change anything. For me personally, if Romney came out with 50 zingers, 1 bombshell accusation against Obama, and performed a miracle by raising someone from the dead, I still would not vote for him!

Sam

[spanone]

11. wait till thursday morning

[porphyrian]

12. This race is already over.

If we all vote and all of our votes are counted, the President will win.

[lillypaddle]

13. your concern is noted

yet again.

[tallahasseedem]

14. +1

[Spider Jerusalem]

15. Have you looked at RCP's electoral map?

They have most of the swing states that are polling for Obama as tossups, including Nevada, Virginia, Florida and Iowa. Look here: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com

and look at the state by state polling in the sidebar and the probablities. Nate Silver got 49 out of 50 right last time; I wouldn't be betting against his numbers being as close to an accurate representation of the state of the race as we have.

[LynneSin]

16. Are you basing this on National Popularity or Electoral VOtes

Because according to EV we're pretty safe in about 250 EV and strong in another 60 EV which puts us way ahead of the 270 we need.

Last time an election was decided on the popularity vote was 2000 and that was a popularity vote from 9 people.

[fugop]

18. Popular vs electoral

I really find myself wondering if this will be the year when the popular vs electoral issue blows up. Yes, it happened in 2000, but it was so close that it got glossed over ultimately. But the southern and racist vote ... I find myself wondering if the crazy anti-Obama vote comes out huge in those states and wins Romney the popular vote. As another poster noted, what if Romney racks up ridiculous margins in the South and Kansas, whi h were already red, while Obama wins by closer margins in every swing state?

[stevenleser]

19. Real Clear Politics has hundreds of polls on its site. You have to be more specific.

Are you talking about the general election generic numbers of the whole country? Swing state average? A specific swing state?

Need more specifics to understand what you mean.