Nate Silver has Florida at a 69.4 chance of an Obama Win

[Samantha]

Other strategic swing states:

Virginia 76.5 percent chance of Obama win
Ohio 83.9 percent chance of Obama win
Pennsylvania 97.1 percent chance of Obama win

The icing on the cake, at least for me:

Michigan 96.8 percent chance of Obama win
Wisconsin 89.7 percent chance of Obama win (thank you, Paul Ryan; hopefully your local constituents will be rejecting you as well to represent them in Congress)

319.3 Electoral College Votes Projected for Obama
218.7 Electoral College Votes Projected for Romney

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/

And my prediction: looks like it is only going to be further downhill from here for Romney/Ryan. Could not have happened to two better deserving politicians....

Sam

[JaneyVee]

1. Wow. 100 point electoral college spread = landslide.

[Samantha]

4. On second thought, I should have ended that thread with the question:

How low can they go (Romney/Ryan)....

Thanks for posting on my thread.

Sam

[hrmjustin]

2. 100,000 voters here or there. I don't know just yet, but we will see.

[Samantha]

6. I really think in the remaining time left

President Obama and Vice President Biden will only increase their lead. I truly believe that.

Thanks for posting on my thread.

Sam

[hrmjustin]

7. I think you are right , but you never know.

Mitt is trying to prove you correct.

[Samantha]

32. Well, I just read that article on the Home Page about the voting machines known for flipping totals

and who owns those machines. So I do realize that in an election as hard fought and dirty as this one has become, with the dirt obviously being slung by the right, anything can happen at any time, especially on election night.

So I was sure after reading that article and the number of states where those machines are located, I wouldn't be able to sleep tonight. I sent the link and a couple of pertinent paragraphs to the Obama re-election team just now.

We can't take anything for granted except there will be a massive slight of hand in operation the night of the election and we need to prepared to deal with that.

Thanks for listening, and thanks for posting on my thread.

Sam

[RagAss]

3. Yeh...but they gotta get out and vote.

[Samantha]

11. I don't think there is a lack of enthusiasm on the Democratic side

Do you? Thanks for posting on my thread.

Sam

[RagAss]

30. Not where I am...I do worry about complacency, however, since these polls do not seem....

to be tightening up. I just hope they reflect likely voters as they claim.

[IDemo]

5. By now, they've got to have patched together their "But he doesn't have a mandate" talking point

Won't matter if it's a landslide.

[Samantha]

12. They are probably working on

Republicans lost due to massive voter fraud by the Dems....

Thanks for posting on my thread.

Sam

[oberliner]

8. Silver's final 2008 presidential election forecast accurately predicted the winner of 49 of the 50

states as well as the District of Columbia.

Pretty good track record!

[Samantha]

13. Yes he does, and that is why

I started checking his site just about every day when I got tired of hearing the MSM saying how close the election was. Felt better ever since I did.

Thanks for posting on my thread.

Sam

[oberliner]

27. I hear ya

His site is great - feeling good about November!

[Arugula Latte]

9. No, no. Mitt's gonna win Pennsylvania.

He said so himself. You can't count on it.

[Samantha]

15. I heard him say that and laughed

I noticed he did not say how....

Thanks for posting on my thread.

Sam

[cleduc]

10. If Romney doesn't win Florida, it's almost impossible for him:

Romney would have to win all of these tossups or Obama leaners:
North Carolina
Nevada
Colorado
New Hampshire
Iowa
Ohio 83.9 percent chance of Obama win
Virginia 76.5 percent chance of Obama win

Plus one of these:
Wisconsin 89.7 percent chance of Obama win
Michigan 96.8 percent chance of Obama win
Pennsylvania 97.1 percent chance of Obama win (no ads running since Aug and no rallies since July)

You can play with the map here:
http://www.270towin.com/

What Romney-Ryan truthfully plan to do with Medicare/Medicaid is deadly for their chances in Florida. Obama has been spending $5 mil per week on ads in Florida alone to nail Mitt on that.

[Samantha]

16. I believe I heard the only chance if he lost FLA would be carrying the rest of the swing states

As in, all of them.

Well, looks like 49.1 to 50.1 in NC with Romney narrowly projected to win in the popular vote; Nate still gives Romney a 59 percent chance of winning it (NC), but other than that even Iowa is at 74.6 percent chance of an Obama win, and the rest are all heavily going towards President Obama (to address the first part of your post)

I don't think there is even a remote chance of Romney winning one of the states in the second part of your post, short of stealing it, but the margin of win is so great now, it might be to great for them to attempt (to address the second part of your post)

In short, I don't see how Romney wins.

Thanks so much for posting on my thread. I would love to see Florida be the state to win it for President Obama.

Sam

[KevTucky]

14. If we take Ohio, Florida, or Virginia, any of those 3, there is no way Romney can win.

What are the odds R Moneysweeps those? The Pres. takes at least two of those 3, with a sweep a decent chance.

[Aldo Leopold]

21. We will most certainly win Florida and Ohio.

As well as Virginia and most likely NC.

[SunSeeker]

17. I hope Nate's as right about this as he was about the 2010 red wave.

I didn't believe him in 2010. I thought there's no way people are that stupid. They were. Maybe now they realized they were hustled. All those teabaggers promising jobs and smaller government just passed big government laws putting government right up your hooha, but blocked every jobs bill.

[Samantha]

20. I think he is pretty deadly accurate

with the only deviance being in when some slight of hand is involved....

Thanks for posting on my thread.

Sam

[littlemissmartypants]

18. Is there a race in Wisconsin?

I have been excavating and I missed some stuff...

http://www.change.org/petitions/president-hamid-karzai-prevent-destruction-of-ancient-site-of-mes-aynak-the-environmental-damage-3

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

19. I ask again: How did Nate factor in all the voter fraud and suppression in his calculation?

[Samantha]

22. Well, I don't see you asked that before but you would have to ask him that

After all these years, there should be a component factored into the equation contained within the margin of error calculation; but as far as the literal county-by-county results being flipped remotely, I think all bets are off then.

Why don't you ask Nate Silver, the expert?

Sam

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

26. I've been putting forth this question for quite some time now.

Don't know how I would get it to him but maybe I'll try and find his email.

[Jennicut]

24. He puts it at 1 to 2% in some states like PA with the voter ID law.

But probably much less in Florida. No other swing state has a voter ID law like this.

"The vast majority of adults do have some sort of identification.
Many people who do not have identification are not registered to vote — or if they are registered, they are unlikely to turn out.
The laws may be inconsistently enforced by thousands and thousands of poll workers at the precinct level.
In many cases, voters without proper identification can cast a provisional ballot, which could eventually be counted in the event of a vote-counting dispute.
The campaigns have an opportunity to educate their voters about ID requirements as part of their turnout operations."

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/15/measuring-the-effects-of-voter-identification-laws/

[Samantha]

29. Thanks for pointing to this explanation

It was very helpful. I have bookmarked it for re-reading.

Sam

[Aerows]

23. Romney is a butthead

I can't put it any nicer than that. Even the people that are voting "for" him are only doing to it vote against President Obama. Nothing says enthusiasm at the polls like "well, I hate you less than the other guy, despite the fact that you suck".

[lpbk2713]

25. I'd like to think Florida has finally come to its senses.

After so many years of voting against their own interests and then making
that incompetent asshole Governor I'd have to think it's about time.

[watercolors]

31. We voted for him last time!

Remember we had three parties running for gov. Crist was the spoiler.

[B Calm]

28. I'm hopeful Ryan made a career ending move

by joining Mitt Romney!