Florida early voting stats - Oct 22 - 23

[Roland99]

Link to tweet

#Election2020 #Florida #EarlyVote #MailInBallots

Summary of votes submitted in FL as of 10/22 8:27am

Dems w/a COMMANDING lead in Vote-by-Mail (+550k)
Reps w/a small lead in-person early voting (+91k)

applied a 50/40 split (Rep/Dem) for no party affiliation (was 47/43 in 2016)

I'm being more pessimistic on the split for no party affiliation voters than we saw in 2016. Even with that slightly pessimistic viewpoint, Dems could conceivably have a sizeable lead as of this morning of ~381,000 votes...so far. That's a lot of ground to makeup from in-person voting from republicans

In 2016, a total of 9,618,915 were cast. 2,758,617 were vote-by-mail and election day numbers were close to that at 2,959,085. Total early in-person votes in 2016 were 3,876,753 and about 24k provisional ballots.

FL has already blown past vote-by-mail returns this year with about 3,200,000

SOOO...ESTIMATED current split between Biden/trump is 52.9/44.0 (ignoring other candidates)!

[lpbk2713]

1. I'll turn mine in this evening at the main post office.

I'll check and double check to make sure everything is per instructions.

[Roland99]

2. dropping 3 off from this household here soon!

[RDANGELO]

3. What makes me nervous is the ballots not returned. What is going on with that!

The Republicans have a higher percentage returned.

[Roland99]

5. I think you have that backwards

57.98% of registered Dem vote-by-mail has been returned
53.29% of registered Rep vote-by-mail has been returned

[obamanut2012]

6. no they don't

[Roland99]

4. Looking back to the 2020 Primary in FL...

Link to tweet

BTW, in FL, there were about 500,000 more Democratic votes cast than Republican in the Primary

(No Party Affiliation registered voters not part of that due to Closed Primary method in FL)

[docgee]

7. Well to be fair a lot of us Democrats have to work during the week.

I am curious what it will look like Monday morning.

[Roland99]

8. Oct 23 early voting update

Link to tweet

#Election2020 #Florida #EarlyVote #MailInBallots
Summary of votes submitted in FL as of 10/23 8:31am

Dems lead shrinks by about 46k votes

applied a Dem-pessimistic 50/40 split (Rep/Dem) for no party affiliation
(was 47/43 Rep to Dem in 2016)