HOLY SHIT!! Be honest...did you see this coming? This early?

[renie408]

I know it is too early to get excited, blah blah blah.


But HOT DAMN!

I was scared shitless coming into this election cycle. And I never, EVER thought we would be watching the Obama team pondering making a run at ARIZONA!

I am starting to send small amounts of money (cause that's all I have!!) to downticket Dems in hopes that we can get more than just the White House.

Seriously, who saw this coming???

[NRaleighLiberal]

1. I was trying to find some recent polling on Indiana and Missouri as well, since, along with Arizona,

those would be the next three to creep into purple in my view. Hard to find good polls in some states that are not currently battleground.

[KamaAina]

13. Todd Akin is the reason we have a "legitimate" shot in MO

[Fawke Em]

31. Tennessee is even pink in most of the models!

A poll taken here earlier this month (and not by a big-name polling organization - just a statewide one) has it Romney - 49 percent and Obama - 41 percent.

Imagine... eight small points in TENNESSEE, of all places!

[antigone382]

80. Well, that's actually a little wider of a spread than in the past in Tennessee, as I recall.

Tennessee is solid red Presidentially, but not by huge margins. And until this last cycle we had Dems at almost all levels, both within the state and in the House of Representatives.

I live in one of the bluer districts in the state (or at least it was until this last election) in Middle Tennessee.

[fishwax]

112. It was 15 points in '08 and 10 in '04

Gore lost by three or four, and I think Clinton won both times. But the last two election cycles haven't been close. If Obama were to make that competitive, that would be very nice

[caraher]

35. I wouldn't hold my breath for Indiana

A Dem win for president here is a once or twice in a lifetime thing. More exciting is the prospect of picking up Lugar's Senate seat. Even Rasmussen's latest poll shows teabagger Mourdock with only a 2 point lead. That's the race where my money is going!

[calimary]

44. Now THAT is one individual whose political growth needs a little stunting.

We NEED to stop this mourdock asshole in his tracks! JUST ON PRINCIPLE!!!!

Where do I donate?

[caraher]

71. Here's the campaign site

Donnelly for Indiana

Which reminds me that I need a lawn sign...

[calimary]

93. Great! Thanks!

[aggiesal]

48. Obama won it in 2008 . . .

So it is possible to win, if NW IN. , Indianapolis, SB, FW, Evanville
have large Dem turnouts.

NW In. won Indiana for Obama 2008, with Gary, EC and Hammond
all producing larger then normal turnouts.

[caraher]

70. OK, but...

the polling looks really bad. I don't think I've seen anything that puts Obama within 10 points of Romney in Indiana

[aggiesal]

73. Agreed n/t

[jbnow]

97. Real Clear Politics

only shows 2 polls for Indiana presidential, the most recent was from 8/01/12
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/in/indiana_romney_vs_obama-3167.html
They show it pink, as leans republican. So is Arizona)

They JUST moved Ohio from toss up to leans Obama as they did in the last week or two Michigan and Wisconsin, so it has to feel like a pretty solid lead to even give them a lean.
Their No Toss Up map has the electoral count as 347 Obama and 191 romney! But even with toss ups Obama has 265 per their reckoning and would only need to win ONE of the remaining toss ups (No, guess NH wouldn't get him to 270 alone, any other would)
Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
Iowa (6)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
North Carolina (15)
Virginia (13)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html
Obama leads in all of those states, most look pretty solid. N Carolina is his weakest lead, the average has him up by 1.
This is a fun map to play with, they show the recent changes in status and you can click any state to get all the polls for the race. (The swing states get a lot of polls.)

[aggiesal]

37. Go to . . .

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Highlight the state you're interested in, and it will tell the probability of
the leader winning that state.

For example, if you point at BLUE New Mexico, it will show you that
Obama has a 96.3% chance of winning NM.

The closest battleground based this site is North Carolina, with RMoney
having only a 66.8% chance of winning.

[NRaleighLiberal]

38. I know - I nearly live there! Am looking for very recent polling numbers -

but some of the states haven't been suitably polled in some time.

thanks, though!

[CitizenPatriot]

57. agree - that is the problem right now - lack of recent polling:-)

have ties to Chapel Hill area myself -- fingers crossed.

[aggiesal]

59. NC Poll numbers from FiveThirtyEight

North Carolina
[font color=Black]FiveThirtyEight Projections [font color=Blue]Dem [font color=Red]Rep [font color=Purple]Margin[\font]
[font color=Black]Polling average [font color=Blue]46.3 [font color=Red]47.0 [font color=Purple]Romney +0.7[\font]
[font color=Black]Adjusted polling average [font color=Blue]46.3 [font color=Red]47.9 [font color=Purple]Romney +1.6[\font]
[font color=Black]State fundamentals [font color=Blue]45.3 [font color=Red]48.3 [font color=Purple]Romney +3.0[\font]
[font color=Black]Now-cast [font color=Blue]46.1 [font color=Red]48.0 [font color=Purple]Romney +1.9[\font]
[font color=Black]Projected vote share ±4.4 [font color=Blue]48.7 [font color=Red]50.6 [font color=Purple]Romney +1.9[\font]
[font color=Black]Chance of winning [font color=Blue]33% [font color=Red]67%[\font]

[font color=Black]Polls 538 WT. [font color=Green]Date [font color=Blue]Dem [font color=Red]Rep [font color=Purple]Margin[\font]
[font color=Black]Purple Strategies [font color=Green]9/19 [font color=Blue]48.0 [font color=Red]46.0 [font color=Purple]Obama +2.0[\font]
[font color=Black]National Research [font color=Green]9/19 [font color=Blue]49.0 [font color=Red]45.0 [font color=Purple]Obama +4.0[\font]
[font color=Black]High Point University [font color=Green]9/18 [font color=Blue]48.0 [font color=Red]44.0 [font color=Purple]Obama +4.0[\font]
[font color=Black]YouGov [font color=Green]9/14 [font color=Blue]44.0 [font color=Red]45.0 [font color=Purple]Romney +1.0[\font]
[font color=Black]Rasmussen [font color=Green]9/13 [font color=Blue]45.0 [font color=Red]51.0 [font color=Purple]Romney +6.0[\font]

[littlemissmartypants]

95. WOW

Thanks for that!

[Astazia]

56. There is a stat re: @ this time in Sept. any candidate for president...

With favorables 48% or higher has won the presidency. (that is if the election isn't stolen or something.)

The good news is that the further we are ahead in polls, the harder it is to plausibily fudge the figures.

Call me "cautiously optimistic".

[Rhiannon12866]

88. There are links on this thread to polls on the House races.

I looked up my own and was bummed out to see it's being called "a toss up." But it's really not my district, since we were redistricted. The congressman I worked for during the last two campaigns lives five miles down the road, while these guys are from way up north. I'm voting for the Democrat, obviously, but I don't know him and I'm not happy about it. He was one of the few Democrats to vote to censure Eric Holder.


http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251106380#post4

[loyalsister]

98. Claire is running well

Her ads force me to be forgiving of the blue dog's predicament. She is distancing herself from Obama and trying to place herself exactly in the center.
I am hoping some people on the right get hoodwinked.

[Gore1FL]

105. There isn't much hoodwinking

I have accused her of being a Republican in more than one letter.

I'm voting for her, but she is more Republican than Democrat, except for the crucial leadership vote.

[loyalsister]

108. I'm talking about hoodwink people who lean right

And assuming the left knows better. Until there is a lot of change in MO politics she's stuck voting with the GOP more than most of us would like.

[trof]

2. Down ticket is where $$$ is needed.

You're right.

[hedgehog]

3. I'm with you - I sent some money to Obama, and some to the Dem running in my district,

Dan Maffei, and some to Anthony Flaccavento in Virginia because he is an organic farmer!

[mr_hat]

4. Rupert Murdoch saw it coming.

I read a quote of his comparing the campaigns, early on. He said the Romney team was way out of its depth.

[thelordofhell]

5. I finally saw a "Mitt" bumper sticker today in Scottsdale AZ

Before that, I had seen about 200 Obama/Biden stickers........AZ BLUE 2...0...1...2

[Tansy_Gold]

11. i've seen one "R/R" yard sign in Gold Canyon

but it's not in anyone's yard. It's along the side of US 60. And it's a very very small one.

[thelordofhell]

25. Is it the ranch??

There's a ranch close to Gold Canyon that always has republican talking point signs on it..........

[Tansy_Gold]

27. Nope

Just along the side of the road between GC and AJ. Surrounded by all the other signs. It's almost. . . . invisible.

[thelordofhell]

87. Sorry, I was thinking of a different place

It's just outside of Wickenburg..........

[DesertRat]

51. I'd "accidentally" run it over if I saw it

[Tansy_Gold]

63. First of all

That's very illegal. It's the kind of thing the other side does, not us.

Second, it's way off the road in the dirt/weeds/whatever, and I wouldn't put my vehicle at risk for a lousy sign.

[unc70]

65. Simultaneous replies

DU groupthink!

[Tansy_Gold]

69. Not exactly

When THEY do it, it's "groupthink."

When WE do it, it's GMTA.

[DesertRat]

90. Geez, I don't need a lecture

Besides, I wouldn't risk my little car for the sign. But I enjoy entertaining the thought.

[unc70]

64. Illegal in most states

Resist that urge. I know you're kidding. But lots of people get into major legal trouble because they removed, defaced, or damaged campaign signs. In addition to legal penalties under general laws as vandalism, most places have specific laws regarding campaign signs.

If anything were to happen to that sign, your post here could be evidence against you.

[DesertRat]

91. Oh for heaven's sake

I understand the laws about signs. I don't live anywhere near Gold Canyon and have no idea where the sign is. My post here is only evidence that a little levity isn't welcome.

[unc70]

100. Was a reminder for wide audience

I said I knew you were kidding. My post was mostly for someone who might stumble upon this thread (not a DUer).

[Applan]

34. I saw my first Willard sticker yesterday in Phoenix too!

It was on a Jeep with an American flag flying from a pole stuck on the back. I was laughing and shaking my head saying USA USA!

[thelordofhell]

86. There's more stickers for Ron Paul than Mitt in Phoenix

[DesertRat]

50. Most Mitt voters are just anti-Obama.

I haven't meant anyone here who is enthusiast about Romney.

BTW, You've probably seen my Obama/Biden bumper sticker.

[Freddie]

61. Saw my *first* R/R bumper sticker today too!

Plus a couple yard signs that have been out a while. Way less than McCain at this point.

[reformist2]

6. Rmoney has put the focus back on wealth/inequality, and that's how Dems get super-majorities.

[nichomachus]

7. Beware

In politics, a week is an eternity. There are six weeks until election.

In December 2003, Howard Dean was an "unbeatable front runner." Three weeks later, he was "unelectable."

Edited to change John Dean to Howard Dean -- oops

[lunatica]

12. Do you mean Howard Dean?

[RevStPatrick]

14. Do you mean Howard Dean?

He wasn't the incumbent president.

[nichomachus]

15. Yes, thank you for catching that, but

sitting president aside, the corporatist media can create any reality it wants in about three weeks.

[renie408]

16. I hear you, but there is a HUGE difference

between December and the end of September. And primaries are fundamentally different from the GE.

Look at the GOP primaries this year. It was the Candidate of the Week for awhile there.

[Initech]

17. Big difference between Howard Dean and Barack Obama.

Howard Dean turned himself into a joke among Republicans. Here Obama has secured the nomination and is running against an unelectable joke of a candidate who's so far out of touched with reality that he often blurs the line between real and satire on a daily basis.

[Capn Sunshine]

67. just to set thing straight, Howard was hardly a joke among republicans- he was feared

and as the Head of the DNC he articulated the 50 state strategy ( which establishment mainstream Dems hate) which resulted in the huge victory of 2006, and 2008.

The moment he left, beltway Dems got their hands on things again, abandoned the 50-state strategy, and the result was 2010. Inside the beltway types is one reason the campaign moved away from DC.

[renie408]

74. He was feared after '06.

The poster above was referring to the scream heard around the world. I always felt like Dean got a raw deal from everybody over that, including Dems.

[Capn Sunshine]

84. That was a classic Media mugging.

The OP had that right. That scream was isolated, re -recorded, and distributed to 50,000 media inboxes by 6 am the next morning.

Great hit job. I asked Howard about that later and he's still mystified since he couldn't even hear himself over the crowd. Someone isolated that scream and ran with that. Who? We may never know.

[SheilaT]

110. I knew some people who were there that night,

and they said it was so noisy inside the room that even standing directly in front of him, they could not hear the scream.

[fadedrose]

78. Some high-placed Dems helped to have Obama lose in Iowa.

I watched the whole thing, and all kinds of big Dems came there and told all the caucuses that Dean was "unelectable" and this was BEFORE the big scream where he was trying to cheer up his supporters (like me).

[Le Taz Hot]

96. Yep. Us too.

Normally, the Democratic Party doesn't even know my area exists. Democratic presidential candidates (including Obama) don't usually get within 200 miles of us. Funny that in 2003, when Dean started his campaign and was the star of the show at the CA Democratic convention, all of a sudden we get attention. We endured exactly the same lectures (handed down condescendingly by the 29-year-old paid political "expert&quot . At the time I was also an E-Board member for the CDP and in 2004, after the primary had been "decided," the consolation prize that the delegates were promised was Dean would be head of the DNC. Smartest thing the Democrats ever did was putting Dean in charge of the DNC. The dumbest thing the Democrats ever did was arrange for Dean's demise to make room for the unpopular Kerry -- who then managed to lose to the worst. president. ever. Don't 'cha just love the beltway boys?

[fadedrose]

104. At last

Somebody who saw what I saw. It was obvious that Kerry was not the desired candidate, by whoever was "big" enough to decide that, because he didn't even fight the ballot loss in Ohio and other places. They(?) had a different candidate in mind for 2008 who wasn't quite ready in 2004.

And when the new head of the DNC took over, Dean was not even invited to sit in on the ceremony. This old bag forgives what's done to her, but not to those she loves. I loved Dean....no more DNC for me, only DFA...

Good Luck Biden...you're gonna need it.

[morningfog]

79. Howard Dean was an unknown.

He was much more susceptible to being branded as something he wasn't. Obama has been President for 4 years, and ran for President for nearly 2 years. He is a known quantity. As is Mitt. Neither are at risk of extreme shifts at this point.

Unless a huge personal or political scandal came out of the WH, which I just can't see happening, Obama can moonwalk into the endzone.

[rocktivity]

8. I saw it coming when I first heard about Seamus

but I won't really breathe easier until after the debates.

Hopefully then I'll be able to party like it's ninteen ninety-thirteen!


rocktivity

[tridim]

9. It's so delicious that the Kochs are a major reason why this is happening.

The teabagger idea was a complete disaster, and the entire GOP is paying for it.

So far Citizen's United is a bust too. I guess they didn't count on the people catching on.

[lunatica]

10. It happened because they took the lead and dominated the talking points from the beginning

And they never let up. Romney tried but couldn't play catch-up no matter how hard he tried. He's been eating their dust from the beginning.

[jaysunb]

62. +1 nt

[MFM008]

18. 47 %

That comment did him in. Even white men and old people are going down. There is a waiter somewhere in this country we owe an awful lot.

[k2qb3]

19. I've been expecting this moment for ten years...

Seriously the Republican coalition shattered under W. The Bush administration sowed the seeds of the destruction of the republican party when they fired Paul O'niel and invaded Iraq. The only thing holding up McCain was fear, and the 2010 wave was a protest of both parties not just the POTUS.

They've never recovered from W. I think a lot of what we're seeing here is the marginal republicans that were hoping the GOP would come to its senses eventually watched the two conventions and thought "WTF am I doing with these losers?" They lost the moderates, they lost the libertarians, they even lost the "true conservatives" who were ideologically motivated and didn't function purely on hate. I see it all around me, people who have always been R aligned but never really happy who've changed their opinion on who is the lesser evil.

It doesn't hurt that Obama is doing a good job either.

Historic moment happening here, major political realignment.

[Sekhmets Daughter]

24. I saw an interactive

historical Electoral Map the other day....It was amazing to see how blue the nation was in the 1950 and 1960s. I think all politics are cyclical....If President Obama goes on to win this election we could be seeing the beginning of the next Blue cycle....Thank heavens...

[Panasonic]

20. If he can help Arizona realize that their batshittery is just that. Batshittery

and abandon the teabagging faction of the batshittery Republicans, then maybe they'll put in all the right people....

In this case, the Arizona Senate race for retiring Kyl is actually tightening up.

Flake, 44 Carmona, 43 according to Carmona's internal polls

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/258811-arizona-senate-race-neck-and-neck-in-carmona-internal-poll

If Obama can help Arizona wake up, then the chances are excellent that Carmona may just be the newest Democratic senator from Arizona, for the first time since 1995 when DeConcini retired.

And it is one of my four keep-an-eye-on-this-race chance to remove any Republicans from grabbing Senate by *ACTUALLY* strengthening it.

[jillan]

22. I saw something the other day where Carmona was beating the pos Flake.

He had posted it on facebook.

[liberalla]

36. I'm with you on that. I'm really interested in the Carmona race.

Last week there was another poll that had Carmona leading by 5 points (44/39), conducted by a "GOP-friendly" firm.

http://www.azfamily.com/news/politics/Poll-Carmona-leading-Flake-170432726.html

"...a spokesman for Carmona's camp said they were pleased. "We don't put too much weight in any poll, but this confirms what our campaign has been saying all along," said spokesman Andy Barr. "Dr. Carmona is a unique candidate with a background that appeals to Independents, Republicans, and Democrats."

Specifically, the numbers show Carmona with 44 percent and Flake with 39. But 16 percent of those questioned said they were undecided.

Of the 620 voters questioned, 37 percent were Republican, 34 percent were Democrat, and 29 percent were independent. The poll had a margin of error of 4 points.

The authors of the poll did not want to be identified because they were not authorized to release the details."

We would be lucky to have Richard Carmona as a Senator.

[lebkuchen]

106. my household is very interested in the Carmona race

We gave him $100. Obama needs to make visits to states like AZ where the pollings are very close. Course, I don't need to tell him that. I think Obama's campaign managers have their act together....well coordinated.

[jillan]

21. The DCCC is playing alot of commercials here for Dems running for office - and all the GOPers are

doing is running against Obamacare.



Ya know, here in ruby red Chandler with the redistricting, we now have part of Tempe with us.
For the first time in forever I will be able to vote a straight Dem ticket

[renie408]

23. :)

[PatSeg]

103. That is so exciting!

I will have my fingers crossed for you.

[bahrbearian]

26. Howard Dean?

[renie408]

30. I must have been out of the country the year Howard Dean won the nomination.

Howard Dean never ran for President. He ran to be the Democratic nominee.

And there is no comparison between Howard Dean and Barack Obama.

[bahrbearian]

66. Seriously, you think Obama runs the DNC?

When Dean was Chairman of the DNC he ran the 50 state strategy that put Obama in the White House. Maybe you were out of the county in 2008.

[renie408]

72. WAIT!

I read your post right after I read the ones about Howard Dean losing his lead so abruptly. I thought you were referring to THAT. You meant that HOWARD DEAN saw it coming.

Got it. Sorry!

[Hamlette]

28. I was never really scared but then I thought we'd win in 2004

part of my 2004 fever was fueled by this site and a poster who kept running the numbers showing we'd win.

I did not expect that it would be this clear this far in advance. As Nate Silver said, you always have to think there could be a game changer but when the time starts to run out, as it is now, the number and kinds of game changers evaporate. Romney can't get a bounce, for instance, from his VP pick (as McCain did in 2008) or his convention (a dud) and it appears Europe will not implode in 6 weeks (I think they are keeping it together or keeping quiet about their economic problems until after our election because they don't want Romney either).

So what could it be that would change the minds of 10% or so of Americans? A terrorist attack tends to rally us around the president (think: 9/11). Likewsie I think a market crash (which I'm not saying is likely) would not cause people to want to change. If the game changer is dramatic enough, people tend to want to keep a steady hand on things which means more support for Obama and there is no time for a more gradual change in conditions.

I'm not even afraid of the jobs numbers anymore. Consumer confidence is up and everywhere I go people are talking "so and so just got a new job". As long as the two David's and Obama are at this, I think we're there.

[renie408]

32. I agree with everything you are saying.

I don't think Barack Obama is going to make some huge 'the fundamentals of the economy are sound' mistake and anything along the lines of a foreign crisis or terrorist attack will just weld people to the President. And Barack Obama is a known quantity, which is the problem Mitt is having right now. Mitt, for all that he has spent since forever running for President, has never been on the NATIONAL stage and he can't take the heat. Obama has definitely been tested.

I just don't see Obama screwing up with less than six weeks to go. He will come off cool and collected in the debates, which will make him seem Presidential. Even if he looks 'too smart' for people, I think there are a lot of people who are looking at Mitt and starting to think that maybe smart ain't so bad.

We will know more after the first debate. But that is the only thing that could give Romney a bounce at this point. Everybody has heard what he has to say and they are not buying. And somebody pointed out today that the debates are likely to hurt Romney because he CAN'T get specific about what he wants to do after the election because he knows like hell people will not vote for him if he does.

[Thrill]

29. I never understood how Romney was ever running close

He's a terrible candidate. Terrible Governor and shady business person.

I didn't think he would get away with being so phony.

[Summer Hathaway]

33. I saw it coming.

I think a lot of people did.

It was obvious from the beginning that Romney is a stupid man. Incredibly stupid. Stupid enough to insult NASCAR fans, women, minorities, etc. while trying to get their votes. He was equally insulting to our international allies while trying to garner some cred in the foreign affairs arena.

He lacks the common sense to filter his thoughts before they become spoken words - the mark of a man who is intellectually inferior.

Add his arrogance into the mix; it was obvious he was NOT going to take any advice, nor listen to constructive criticism from his political colleagues who have played this game before, and know what lines are not to be crossed, what comments are not to be made in public.

In addition to all of the above, Romney is one of the most vulnerable candidates the GOP could have possibly nominated - tax returns, Bain, outsourcing US jobs, offshore tax havens, a piss-poor record as governor, adherence to a religion many believe to be a cult, draft-dodger during the Viet Nam years - the list is almost endless.

Romney's campaign was destined to crash-and-burn from day one. It was always a matter of when - and the early indicators literally screamed very, very quickly.

[renie408]

40. I was HOPING, but I really thought Obama would be trailing or tied

all the way til November and I wouldn't have any fingernails left by election night. My husband and I had seriously planned to get totally shit faced early on that night, pass out and miss the whole thing.

[Summer Hathaway]

49. I have been completely confident

that Obama would be a two-term president from the day he was inaugurated. (My reasons for that are another topic entirely).

I always knew that Obama would come out swingin', and wouldn't let up - no matter who his opponent turned out to be.

But when Romney became the candidate, I realized that most of the punches that landed on his sorry ass would be self-inflicted.

[lillypaddle]

39. I know!

I'm excited but reticent. Hope it's not too good to be true. I can't wait for the first debate next week.

[renie408]

42. Me too!!

I figure we will know more after the debates. The only thing floating out there that makes me nervous is this Libya story that CNN is beating to death. I *think* there might be a story there and am just hoping nobody else picks it up and runs off with it. If we can skate through the next couple of weeks and keep going the direction we are, I think we will be in good shape.

[lillypaddle]

43. Keep the faith! n/t

[tarheelsunc]

41. Everyone here is acting like Obama won already

and that really scares me. We all know these Republican leaders are trying to suppress votes and spreading lies about the President through FOX News. The debates haven't even occurred yet and supposedly Rmoney is putting more effort into them than any candidate in history. They're not just going to give it up and stop their underhanded attempts to steal it.

[lillypaddle]

46. Hey, relax a little

I'm getting excited, but that doesn't translate into complacency. We're due a little bit of positivity. Doesn't mean we've failed to recognize what could go wrong - like THEFT of this election.

[unc70]

99. Use enthusiasm to build a wave, critical in NC

As a Chapel Hill liberal I have too much painful experience to become overconfident. While I was on the winning side my first campaign as a young Teen Dem (Sanford 1960), I have learned its best not get my hopes up while I work my ass off.

The most important race in NC is for governor, second most are those for NC legislature. But the key for all others is an Obama landslide. All the pieces are falling into place, McCrory is helping by his enthusiasm for fracking, his lobbying job, and not releasing his tax reruns.

The possibility of a Dem comeback in NC began with the acquittal of John Edwards, the last of the Dems targeted by Repub Federal prosecutor Holding. I'm posting more on that in the North Carolina forum.

Anyway, by working together now I hope we regain enough power to prevent further harm and to repair the damage of the recent GOP majority.

[greiner3]

45. I signed up for a weekly;

Donation for the president's campaign. This way I'll have up to 7 chances to lunch with President Obama.

[Dedicated Mind]

47. awesome news

latinos on the march

[Sugarcoated]

54. Yep yep yepper

[1StrongBlackMan]

52. For the Campaign to make a play for AZ ...

makes more sense than on its plain face.

I think this play is more about helping out Carmona (by drawing out the Mexican vote to the polls); than any real expectation of a win ... But a win wouldn't hurt.

[Warpy]

53. Brewer has pissed off a hell of a lot of people there

and they probably think a vote for Obama is one against Brewer, and they're partially right about that.

I'll take it. How about you?

[vlyons]

55. the slate of GOP primary candidates was a big clue

that the GOP is completely ape shit bonkers. What normal person wants to vote for a bunch of paranoid haters and liars? Everyone gthought Mitt was the best of the lot, but turns out that he's equally awful. Just a terrible candidate.

[kag]

58. I'm right there with you, Renie.

I keep telling myself not to get too confident, but it's difficult with the news lately. I'm seriously loving watching Rmoney and Lyan self destruct--and so humorously. I'm still nervous, because I know they cheat. But I'm allowing myself to breathe a little.

[Bake]

60. If Mississippi or Kentucky are in play, I'm going back to church!

But no, I didn't see even this coming.



Bake

[gkhouston]

75. Save your gas; you'd be raptured before you got there.

Mississippi going blue would be like the End Times.

[Doc Holliday]

68. As the primaries were getting into gear,

I told myself, "They've got nothing." Whistling past the graveyard, yeah. Hopeful, but unable to be cocky.

As things went on and on, the more the wanna-bees showed us, the more I felt (with some relief) that I was right. They've got nothing. Cain? Bachmann? Santorum? Newt? GoodHair? As Bugs Bunny was wont to say, "Ha-ha. It is to laugh."

Then they winnowed it down to one choice-- Mr. Rich Whiteguy, the NotObama.

And now? The vibe I'm seeing & hearing the most from the GOP noise machine is one of desperation.

Mitt is being Mitt; Ryan and his people are calling him "the Stench" (?), Obama is coming on strong and steady, and looking very Presidential, as they say. (Why shouldn't he? He's the President!) {{{ruffles & flourishes}}}

The wingnut segment of Media is searching desperately for anything even remotely resembling a faux pas or a "gotcha!" moment, even going so far as Rush devoting an undeserved amount of time bestowing his special brand of charm and wit on Madonna. A number of conservative bloggers (the dumber ones, the Rush parrots) have seized on her "black Muslim in the White House" joke as the truth finally coming out. The NotObama theme simply isn't gaining the traction that Central Command hoped it would, and now they've still got nothing. Nothing but a lot of teabillies who may or may not decide to hold their noses and vote for Romney. (Imagine the exploding heads. I ain't cleanin' that shit up!)

Don't think I'm becoming complacent, though....not for a minute. I've seen some ugly electoral shit in my life, and I'll fight it any way I can. The easy way (right this minute, at least) is to donate up and down the ticket....till it hurts.

It IS important, for so many reasons, that this country get bluer. I sometimes feel that we're poised on the knife edge of history, still trying to decide what the 21st Century is going to be like for America. I'm ready for the future... and I don't think that Mitt Romney is going to be the man who summons it.

It is my hope, backed by my wallet and whatever else is required, that Barack Obama is that man.

As for me, personally? I remember the words of Joseph P. Kennedy, Sr. in a telegram to the President immediately after Pearl Harbor:

"Name the battlefront. I am yours to command."

Less than six weeks to go. Bring it on.

[lonestarnot]

76. Carmona is impressive! And in the 9th District Kirsten Sinema is fantastic! I'm excited too!

[Dawson Leery]

77. Remember 1972 and 1984.

The Democrats fell apart as the fall campaign began.
There is no path to 49 states for Obama, though 400 electoral votes is possible.

[fried eggs]

81. Remember how rough the GOP convention week was?

But ever since the DNC, I've felt better every week. The more Rmoney opens his mouth, the more I have increased hope that he and his tea party will be destroyed Nov 6.

[LynnTTT]

82. But what if millions can't actually vote?

PA is going for Obama, but isn't it still estimated that thousands don't have the proper ID?
Here in SC the court case requiring Drivers ID won't be decided till next month. And if upheld, individual polling officials get to decide whether to voter gets to cast a provisional ballot.
What about other states?

[ProSense]

83. It's not early, and

a lot of people knew Mitt had the potential to implode. The flip flops, lies, misspeaks and his Bain background kept adding fuel to the fire. It's a wonder he lasted this long, but Mitt is unique in that people kept apologizing for him. Hell people are apologizing for his airplane comment. Why, what's the point?

Krugman made this point a couple of months ago at the height of the Bain exposures.

<...>

And here’s the thing: Romney is running for president entirely on the basis of his business success...Once the Bain record becomes a liability instead of a strength, there’s nothing there.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/13/business-is-not-economics/

Mitt is a fraud with a media created persona. He's 100 percent bullshit.

The reason Mitt is taking a huge hit on his 47 percent comment is because his credibility was on the slide. People forget the relentless Bain criticisms and those on Romney's tax proposal when he was labeled Romneyhood. The ads helped to erase Romney's edge on the economy. The media/factcheckers tried to intervene, but they couldn't effectively spin away the facts of Bain.

By the time the conventions rolled around, Romney was bruised and his advantage on the economy was slipping away. The chair debacle at the RNC further eroded his credibility. The DNC put the nail in the coffin, especially since Mitt failed to get the edge he was hoping for from the August jobs report.

Mitt skated as long as he could, but it was only a matter of time before the media and his allies would be unable to shield him from himself. The aftermath of the conventions was just such a time when more and more Americans were tuning in. Mitt screwed up, and then screwed up again, and again.

He went Palin on Russia, and now he has basically entered the "I'm not a witch" stage. (http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021421930)

[AverageJoe90]

85. TBH, I didn't quite see Romney's incredible downfall, either.

And I was almost sure he was going to safely clinch Virginia and Florida, too. Now, even North Carolina's going for Obama. Good news indeed, although I'm still watching the state polls. They are vital.

[Cha]

89. I am so not

counting anything until after Nov 6. Hopefully, it's over for willard then.

[tavalon]

92. I did

I've been soundly chastised for it many times. I said, just a few weeks ago that the only question was whether Obama would have a landslide or a rout. I was told that this encourages voter apathy, though how, I have no idea.

[Le Taz Hot]

94. Not me.

I thought this race would go down to the wire, that the Democrats would keep the Senate but the Republicans would keep the House.

I don't think anyone could have predicted such a massive-scale meltdown AND the massive ripple effect it's having down ticket. I'm convinced it's why Congress left early -- so many R's are in danger of actually losing their seats where 6 months ago, they weren't worried at all. I've never seen anything like it and I've been paying attention since '68.

[Historic NY]

101. A little bit of Obama love can make a difference in the down ticket...go OFA.

[vi5]

102. Ain't over till it's over...

A month is an eternity in an election season. Hell a week is an eternity.

[bemildred]

107. Here:

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&output=search&sclient=psy-ab&q=bemildred+landslide&btnG=&gbv=1&sei=6YhkUPr1CenFiwLJxIFg

Edit: http://www.democraticunderground.com/11346016#post11

[Doodler71]

109. I'm excited but also hand ringing

I think the positive polls are awesome. They create an energy and momentum that help the campaign and those of us volunteering. I'm also worried because the polls aren't votes. I remember Gore being up in the polls and then the fiasco of having the election taken from us. So, I'm cautiously optimistic. So much better than being down on the ropes. I just hope we can keep going up and not only re-elect BO but also put more dems in the house and senate.

Kim

hanging out in the battleground state of Iowa

[azmesa207]

111. I have

lived in AZ for 12 year's now and it truly is a Republican state and has been getting worse for the last 3.9 years . There are a lot of people getting fed up with the tea bag Governor and the rest of the politicians especially sheriff A all though he will get reelected but it will be closer than it ever been. Hopefully the democrats will make some in road in this election and get rid of some of the crazies .

[seabeyond]

113. it may be too early to get excited, but better this than stressing on a competitive tight race

enthusiasm and the feel of win carries us a long way, all in itself.