Obama and Romney are still statistically tied in most of the national polls

[MariaM83]

So Obama better not be counting his chickens just yet.
'Specially with them dirty tricks that will be goin on on election day.

[sinkingfeeling]

1. A 10-point lead is a statistical tie? How about 12 points?

[MariaM83]

4. which polls does he have a 10 or 12 point lead in? nt

[sinkingfeeling]

8. The new Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll released Wednesday.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57520341/poll-obama-opens-substantial-leads-in-key-swing-states/?pageNum=3&tag=contentMain;contentBody

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. Maybe He's Referring To CBS/NYT's Swing State Polls

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57520341/poll-obama-opens-substantial-leads-in-key-swing-states/?pageNum=3&tag=contentMain;contentBody

[MariaM83]

17. yes, you must be right - those polls are battleground states, not national nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. If Obama Is Winning OH, FL, And PA He's Winning The Election

No Republican has ever been elected president while losing Ohio , much less losing Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania,

[renie408]

31. Excuse me?

[nc4bo]

32. Your sarcasm is noted. nm

[msanthrope]

35. The concern, too. nt

[SunsetDreams]

34. Sure they did, back in 2008

All those asinine accusations were around then.

[renie408]

42. /\ :) /\

[renie408]

27. Yeah, who gives a shit how he is doing nationally? He is killing in the electoral college.

I don't think there even IS a way for Romney to win right now. RCP has him at 265 WITH the toss ups. In the past week, ALL of the 'toss up' states have fallen to Obama, NONE for Romney.

[ProSense]

2. What BS.

That's the nonsense the RW/GOP media are spewing: Tied.

[SunsetDreams]

11. Yes in their

"unskewed" Polls

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. Surely You Can Do Better Than That

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html#polls

[MariaM83]

7. that proves my point nt

[sadbear]

15. What? Rasmussen?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. There Is No Such Thing As A Statistical Tie Unless, Ahem, The Candidates Are Really Tied

http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/whats-a-statistical-tie-anyway-234/


There are dozens of nat'l polls of recent vintage that we can average and when we do that we see a four or five percent Obama lead. And the more polls, the more respondents we have to average, and consequently our results become more robust.

[still_one]

5. The President has never counted "his chickens". However, it isn't within the margin of error with

all the polls factored in

and that republican leaning polls are tilting in the Presidents direction indicate that the romney camp is in big trouble

Of course everything depends on turnout

[ProSense]

12. Additionally,

the President is leading by margins similar or better than 2008, which doesn't bode well for Romney. He's also still falling in the polls.

Mitt is getting crushed in the state polls, with even states that went for McCain showing him unable to achieve the 2008 numbers.

[Xipe Totec]

6. Here's some comfort.

http://gma.yahoo.com/blogs/abc-blogs/criticism-romneys-campaign-grows-six-10-rate-efforts-100132981--abc-news-politics.html

[sadbear]

9. Only polls that matter are the swing states.

[RagAss]

13. We all appreciate your concern.

[yellowcanine]

14. You need a source if you are going to make that claim.

And more specificity. Polls taken when? Last ten days? Last 30 days?

[SunsetDreams]

18. They were

retroactively taken in the year 1420 B.C.H.F. other wise known as, Before Chit Hit Fan.

[Fawke Em]

37. Shouldn't that me 1420 B.M.H.F.?

Before Mitt Hit Fan.

[SunsetDreams]

40. Yes!!

Even better

[K Gardner]

16. Post Fail. n/t

[Faux pas]

19. Good one!

[MariaM83]

21. polls since the convention - ie past 2 weeks

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2012

[nc4bo]

24. What are you going on about? nm

[ProSense]

25. What are you looking at?

Mitt is getting crushed. Most of the polls are five points or more, there are a handful over 10 points.

At this point in 2008, the margin over McCain was about 3 to 4 points nationally.

[SunsetDreams]

29. You mean

you are not convinced yet?

[SunsetDreams]

26. Say, can you still edit stuff yourself at Wiki?

anyone know? I see the edit links.

[ProSense]

30. It doesn't matter, the majority of the

polls are outside the margin of error. In fact, most of them are two to five points outside, with some even more.

I think the poster is looking at the MOE and not the poll margin.

[SunsetDreams]

36. Yes I've seen the polls

and all I see is crispy fried bacon with lipstick on it being trounced by President Obama.

[MariaM83]

46. yes, you can nt

[SunsetDreams]

50. If you can do that

It's probably not a good source to use then.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

33. Your Link Has Like A Gazillion Polls And He's Leading In Almost Every Single One Of Them

In some polls the lead is larger than in others.


Do you really believe they all could be wrong?

And they all could be wrong in one direction?

And wouldn't that be unprecedented in the history of modern polling?

[MariaM83]

44. his lead is within the 95% confidence interval for a good portion of the polls

I agree that the direction very strongly favors Obama
and taken all together, he probably does have a very slight lead statistically
but it's too close for comfort

[SunsetDreams]

49. Sorry..

maybe I'm not awake yet.

his lead is within the 95% confidence interval for a good portion of the polls
I agree that the direction very strongly favors Obama

and taken all together, he probably does have a very slight lead statistically
but it's too close for comfort

Can you explain?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

54. The .095 Confidence Level

The .095 confidence level means there is a theoretical one in twenty chance that the sample is incorrect or didn't accurately measure what it was designed to measure; nothing more and nothing less...

[SunsetDreams]

56. Oh ty so much

.095 makes more sense. Instead of 95%, it's actual 9.5%.

[LynneSin]

28. Um, when was the last time we elected someone via a national vote count?

The press is going to push these national polls because they are desperate to keep the election close. A blowout is bad for ratings.

Elections are based on electoral votes (outside of 2000) and thus statewide polls are the most important we should follow!!

[GoneOffShore]

41. Oh for the "Rec Reply" feature to arrive.

+100

[GoneOffShore]

38. Thanks for your concern. Though Nate Silver would disagree.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

As would http://www.electoral-vote.com/

even without the Rasmussen/Fox weighting.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Maps/Sep26-noras.html

Doesn't mean we can relax. Still have to fight for every vote and the down ticket races.

[MineralMan]

39. No, they're not. But thanks for the attempt

at discouragement. Sadly, the numbers don't support your claim, so your discouragement has failed. Please try again later...

[BumRushDaShow]

43. Rove Pizza!

Woo hoo.

[vaberella]

45. Welcome...I'm not sure to see you as a troll or a concern troll.

However, you happen to be wrong and the way rMoney, Fox News and so many other repubs on news stations are running their mouths in desperation with the exact same claim you're making--I would hope that rMoney realizes money can't buy everything. It sure as hell can't buy you a poll or a presidential victory.

[MariaM83]

48. No, I hope I am not a troll, and I most certainly am not persuaded by Faux or the Rmoney campaign

just looking at the numbers of national polls.

The arguments about electoral college votes and swing-state votes are persuasive.

[City Lights]

47. Uh, we elect presidents via the electoral college, so national polls are

meaningless. Nothing more than a beauty contest.

And I doubt PO is counting his chickens.

[timber84]

51. 232 Posts?

What an effort. I would have hoped you'd have the patience to wait until election night.

[Zambero]

52. Romney has huge margins in some red states

that serve to make the race look more competitive when all the polling data is consolidated on a national level. Obama is pulling ahead in virtually all of the swing states, and that's what matters.

[gopiscrap]

53. I don't care what national polls say

Roney could be ahead by 20% as long as Obama wins by one vote in each state that equals 270 electoral votes...(except Nebraska and Maine)

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

55. What makes you think Obama is "counting his chickens"? We are the ones who need

to get out and vote. I'm sure he's well aware of the voter suppression tactics. It is the voters who need to educate themselves and armed themselves with the correct documents required to vote.

It is OUR responsibility to make sure we and others are registered and prepared to vote, not Obama's!!

[demosincebirth]

57. sure, when they poll all voters, including the southern red states, who would vote for David Duke

if he were running for president. But, that not the way it works. Remember 2000, when Gore got more votes the GWB? We'll take it either way.

Seems like you, just might be flying under the radar, here. I hope not.