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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsCOVID-19 - This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic
Wonderful article discussing how and why Covid has caused mass infections in some locations and not others. Appears more related to super-spreader events from more densely-populated areas or extended time in gatherings in small, enclosed locations (bars, clubs, nursing facilities, restaurants)
This would make sense here in theme park central where guests are largely outdoors or in very large ride buildings (for a rather short amount of time) and are physically distanced and no spike in cases traced back to any of them
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/
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By now many people have heard about R0the basic reproductive number of a pathogen, a measure of its contagiousness on average. But unless youve been reading scientific journals, youre less likely to have encountered k, the measure of its dispersion. The definition of k is a mouthful, but its simply a way of asking whether a virus spreads in a steady manner or in big bursts, whereby one person infects many, all at once. After nine months of collecting epidemiological data, we know that this is an overdispersed pathogen, meaning that it tends to spread in clusters, but this knowledge has not yet fully entered our way of thinking about the pandemicor our preventive practices.
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There are COVID-19 incidents in which a single person likely infected 80 percent or more of the people in the room in just a few hours. But, at other times, COVID-19 can be surprisingly much less contagious. Overdispersion and super-spreading of this virus are found in research across the globe. A growing number of studies estimate that a majority of infected people may not infect a single other person. A recent paper found that in Hong Kong, which had extensive testing and contact tracing, about 19 percent of cases were responsible for 80 percent of transmission, while 69 percent of cases did not infect another person. This finding is not rare: Multiple studies from the beginning have suggested that as few as 10 to 20 percent of infected people may be responsible for as much as 80 to 90 percent of transmission, and that many people barely transmit it.
This highly skewed, imbalanced distribution means that an early run of bad luck with a few super-spreading events, or clusters, can produce dramatically different outcomes even for otherwise similar countries. Scientists looked globally at known early-introduction events, in which an infected person comes into a country, and found that in some places, such imported cases led to no deaths or known infections, while in others, they sparked sizable outbreaks. Using genomic analysis, researchers in New Zealand looked at more than half the confirmed cases in the country and found a staggering 277 separate introductions in the early months, but also that only 19 percent of introductions led to more than one additional case. A recent review shows that this may even be true in congregate living spaces, such as nursing homes, and that multiple introductions may be necessary before an outbreak takes off. Meanwhile, in Daegu, South Korea, just one woman, dubbed Patient 31, generated more than 5,000 known cases in a megachurch cluster.
The Magistrate
(95,255 posts)Thank you for sharing it.
Roland99
(53,342 posts)DeminPennswoods
(15,290 posts)nt
tblue37
(65,487 posts)LAS14
(13,783 posts)BlueWavePsych
(2,640 posts)See also ...
Largest study of COVID-19 transmission highlights essential role of super-spreaders
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-09-30/largest-covid-19-transmission-study-highlights-super-spreaders
Response to Roland99 (Original post)
lostnfound This message was self-deleted by its author.
ProfessorGAC
(65,168 posts)Interesting article.
GusBob
(7,286 posts)thanks for posting
I guess one take home point is avoid large indoor gatherings where folks have to speak loudly
like a Trump rally lol
Dark n Stormy Knight
(9,771 posts)"greatest" list. I wonder if you'd try posting your same OP again. Such important info.