Arizona State Senate moves from 'Tossup' to 'Tilt Democratic'

[RandySF]

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CNalysis
@CNalysis
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The AZ State Senate has moved from Toss-Up to Tilt D in our ratings. Upon reexamination, we moved SD-17 from Tilt R to Toss-Up, which caused the odds of either a D majority or a tie to go up to a total of 55.3%.

[marble falls]

1. If we're ever going to kill gerrymandering we need a bunch more of this.

[wackadoo wabbit]

6. Gerrymandering isn't really the problem in Arizona; stupid voters are

In November 2000, Arizona voters passed Proposition 106, a citizen initiative that amended the Arizona Constitution by removing the power to draw congressional and state legislative districts from the state legislature and reassigning this task to the newly created Independent Redistricting Commission (IRC).

https://azredistricting.org/About-IRC/default.asp

The IRC is the only reason that Arizona currently has 5 Democratic congresspeople (out of a total of 9). If redistricting had been left in the hands of the deep red Arizona legislature, you can be assured that our congressional delegation would be more likely to consist of 9 Republicans.

[marble falls]

8. With a small population its no problem in AZ, but GOP state legislature gerrymandering ...

dilutes your vote in Presidential elections, too.

So I repeat: we need to turn more state legislatures to get a handle on gerrymandering.

I'm sure gerymandering or not flipping the AZ legislature is a good thing.

[Thekaspervote]

2. Huh?? Toss up to tilt...RCP Kelly +5, JHK forecast avg 7.3, Economist says Kelly very likely to win

Their odds 88%

[RandySF]

3. This is the Arizona State Senate.

[Thekaspervote]

4. Oh..sorry! Wondered. I can self delete if you want

[RandySF]

5. Nahhh s'ok

[wackadoo wabbit]

7. Be still, my beating heart!

I've lived in Arizona for close to 25 years; and never in that time, to my knowledge, has the State Senate had a Democratic majority.