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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsIts been nearly 3 weeks since Labor Day We were all worried about surge after holiday Has it happe
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Ashish K. Jha
@ashishkjha
Its been nearly 3 weeks since Labor Day
We were all worried about surge after holiday
Has it happened?
Actually, yes
Data here pretty clear
First, heres a graph of the number of new daily cases (y-axis) over past month
7-day moving averages
What does this mean?
Ashish K. Jha
·
Sep 26, 2020
Replying to @ashishkjha
Cases slowly declining as we entered September
Labor Day weekend 9/5-7
If holiday set off new infections...youd expect to see cases rising 5 to 7 days later (around 9/12)
Thats exactly what we see in graph
So 2 weeks ago, we were at 34K/day
Today, at 44K/day
Up 30%
2/7
Ashish K. Jha
@ashishkjha
39 states have more cases today than just 2 weeks ago
31 states have higher % of tests returning positive
And 16 states have % test positive > 10%
Thats not great. Those 16 states are missing a lot of infections
But patterns vary across states. So lets dive in
Ashish K. Jha
·
Sep 26, 2020
Replying to @ashishkjha
Lets start with 15 states with highest per capita new cases
ND #1 at 52 new cases /100K/d)
Others include SD, WI, UT, OK, IA, AR, MO, etc
But its not just small states
In fact, about 25% of America lives in these 15 states
How are things going here?
Not great
4/8
Ashish K. Jha
@ashishkjha
Across these 15 states:
1. New infections are up 67% in last two weeks. That a lot.
2. Their collective % of test positives is 11.6%
3. Their hospitalizations are starting to creep up
But theres another problem rest of the country is not doing so hot either
5/7
Ashish K. Jha
·
Sep 26, 2020
Replying to @ashishkjha
Across other 35 states:
Cases up about 11%
% of tests positive, hospitalizations flat
So, almost no one getting better but many getting worse
And, of course
Some states further easing restrictions (FL, IN, even NY)
Colleges, many businesses back, some seeing outbreaks
6/8
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Ashish K. Jha
@ashishkjha
And with colder weather, outdoor activity, which is so much safer, will get harder
This is why @IHME_UW and others predicting a bad fall/winter
But I'm a bit more optimistic
We can avoid the @IHME_UW scenario of 400K dead by January
What makes me more optimistic?
7/9
Ashish K. Jha
·
Sep 26, 2020
Replying to @ashishkjha
A bunch of things.
More testing finally coming (pretty sure)
Some policymakers are being data driven, limiting indoor gatherings
And of course, as infections rise, folks will pull back on their own
Plus -- therapies keep getting better. This allows us lower deaths
8/9
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Ashish K. Jha
@ashishkjha
Bottom line
We have a long way to go in this pandemic
Must focus on keeping infections, hospitalizations, and deaths low
Not in a good spot but we can control this
We can get through next 7-9 months until we hopefully have safe, effective vaccines widely available
9/10
Here's our charge
Avoid indoors when possible (push leaders to limit dining, bars)
When indoors are super important (schools), improve ventilation: open windows, air exchange. And wear a mask!
And democratize testing for everyone, not just well-connected.
We can do this
Fin
11:08 PM · Sep 26, 2020
ProfessorGAC
(65,337 posts)Ashish did a nice job, here.
DonaldsRump
(7,715 posts)These anti-science monsters politicized basic health issues (masks and closures/limitations) and failed to do anything to stop the spread.
This was not the fault of China, the Blue States, or the people who got infected, sick, and/or died. IT IS THE FAULT OF TRUMP AND THE REPUTINCANS ALONE. Let us never forget this, and let us make sure nobody else does either.
spanone
(135,921 posts)StClone
(11,692 posts)College kids to class and Labor day gatherings, as people let down their guard. Yesterday I ventured for less than ten minutes into my nearest grocery store and counted 4 ladies without masks out of maybe 25 people. Bad.
intheflow
(28,516 posts)relying heavily on open windows. This sounds delusional to me.
It will be below 40 degrees most days for much of the US.
Shrike47
(6,913 posts)week, so well see what happens in a couple weeks. Im not optimistic.
smirkymonkey
(63,221 posts)shanti
(21,675 posts)She said they'd just come off of quarantine, after having tested positive for Covid. I counted back, and they had to have caught it during that Labor Day weekend. They're in OC, late 70's and are always lunching with their evangelical church friends. Oh, and one of her friends caught it too. "But she's perfectly fine, because she has rheumatoid arthritis and takes hydroxychloroquin". Then more blather about it being politicized. She doesn't know what the big deal is, she and her husband are fine now.
Oh, and she's a RN.
Arkansas Granny
(31,539 posts)beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)It's going to be ugly as COVID fully invades all the 55 and over communities and subdivisions
triron
(22,029 posts)for partial in class instruction. I can tell people are getting more casual about not wearing masks when out hiking.
I understand restaurants are a major reason for the upsurge in new cases. Even though our governor has made good decisions on the whole I now believe she may have to backtrack. But I fear she will not respond very quickly.