Who has the most to lose from the debates?

[renie408]

My husband and I were talking this morning and I said I didn't think the debates would move anything much one way or the other. He said he thought that Obama really needed to kill in the debates because many of the people who have been turned off by Romney in the past few weeks might feel better about him if he can get through the debates without making an ass of himself. That they just need to see him NOT acting like an idiot. Now, my husband tends to be the gloom and doom type, so what do you guys think?

[a geek named Bob]

1. I'm expecting Romney to be on heavy drugs

just to avoid a meltdown...

[Lucy Goosey]

7. I keep reading this...

...people really believe this, right? That seems like such a bad idea. I am kind of hoping for a Romney meltdown, though, I must admit.

[a geek named Bob]

10. ...on the other hand, I LOVE a good debate...

and I really don't see Romney as being able to carry his end of an argument.

[Scuba]

2. Obama clearly has the most to lose, but I expect his to destroy Rmoney.

[JoeyT]

3. Romney by a mile.

Romney is the one that's likely to have a complete meltdown. He's not used to having people talk back to him and he can't think on his feet. Once Obama puts him against the ropes a few times he's not going to be able to keep his lies straight.

I think it's almost certain he's going to act like an idiot, probably several times. Then there's a small chance of a "You fucking peasants!" moment.

[JaneyVee]

4. Romney will make a fool of himself and throw a temper tantrum.

[fadedrose]

5. Romney

His support is shaky, even from his own party. They may not vote at all if they have to vote for Obama.

Obama's people, if I am an example, will not change our minds because of a debate.

[mojo2012]

6. Romney has been practicing for months

So yes, I think President Obama needs to be on his toes. The good thing is that President Obama doesn't have to remember lies so he should be calm, sound knowledgeable, and have facts. His disadvantage is that he probably hasn't had a lot of time to practice since he also running the country and campaigning.

Romney, however, will be very good also because he has memorized all of his answers. He has been working on this for months and lately even taken days off campaigning to practice (which is also a stupid thing to do at this stage of the campaign).

The key strategy I think should be to get Romney off his memorized script and have to answer off script. That's where Romney screws up and says the most bizarre things the most often. Also, I believe that President Obama has to get Romney angry because he's been known to lose his temper. There should be lots of opportunities for President Obama. If he can do this early in the debate, I hope it throws Romney off balance for the rest of the debate. There's no way Romney is going to remember which lie is most recent or remember everything he said some other time since he's done it so often (remember the weather vane comment from John Huntsman).

I'm thinking positive and banking on Obama to win the debate....I just hope there is no world crisis or bad economic numbers than skew the outcome

[renie408]

9. Thanks. Good analysis.

[nxylas]

13. But he's been running for office most of his adult life...

...and he still told a baker "you didn't bake that" when given a cookie. And he screwed up when visiting the three easiest countries a US presidental hopeful could possibly go to on a foreign tour (the UK, Israel and Poland). The guy doesn't seem able to manage even the most basic campaigning. I wonder how he ever managed to get elected to anything.

[hexola]

8. I think there will be 1 or 2 debates...

And Rmoney will find a way to cancel or back out of the rest.

[awake]

11. Romney

While I believe that Willard will do ok and the press will say he did well so they can keep the horse race close. Romney has the most to lose because if he blows it (which I give a 50/50 chance) then its game over, while there is no chance that our President will have a melt down it might be viewed as a tie, which while not good news would not be as much of a loss as it will be when Willard Whines (which I think he will)

[Jennicut]

12. This election has so few undecideds left per the polling

that both Dems and Repubs will think they have won the debate. No one is going to lose in a major way unless they have a meltdown and even Sarah Palin didn't. Romney will have a lot of stuff memorized like Chris Matthews said last night. Obama is naturally intelligent. It will be like debating a robot spitting memorized talking points. I doubt it helps move the numbers for Romney but I don't think anyone will have a major disaster.

[1-Old-Man]

14. Romney had a touch task, to come off as likable. Obama treads a narrower road

The President has little difficulty coming off as likable but he has the dual task of having to be well armed with facts to defeat Romney's peculiar style of argumentation (relies on emotion, not fact) and that is a touch balance. So I'd say the President's job will be harder, but he is better suited to do it than Romney is for his bit.

[el_bryanto]

15. obviously Obama

He's up - Romney is down. If Obama fails significantly in the debates, that could change.

Bryant

[renie408]

16. I don't think Obama will fail.

But I think that all Romney has to do to 'win' is not act like an idiot.

[el_bryanto]

19. well - he needs to come across as presidential

Romney does - that's where he's kind of falling down right now - he seems like he really doesn't know what's what.

Bryant.

[SheilaT]

17. The so-called debates are never actual real debates at all.

And that's the problem. There's no actual back-and-forth, and never any follow-up questions, no way of asking for clarification of what a candidate just said, or an attempt to get them to further explain themselves.

A question is tossed out, they take turns going first, spend some specific amount of time answering, the other guy gets his turn, and I think maybe the first guy gets thirty seconds to rebut if he wants, and that's it. Go on to the next question, which usually has nothing at all to do with the one that went before.

All too often the candidate gets to answer the question he decides should have been asked -- remember Sarah Palin blatantly saying she wouldn't answer a particular question and instead went off and spoke for a couple of minutes on the subject she wanted to talk about?

Each and every candidate simply memorizes a whole bunch of talking points more or less relevant to the expected questions, and practices spouting those talking points. It's pathetic, really. If there were a totally different format, with the candidates sitting down, able to actually engage each other. If real follow-up questions were to be asked, then the debates would be meaningful. I have no idea how many people actually watch the debates, but I doubt they make any real difference anymore.

[Whiskeytide]

18. As the front runner, Obama clearly has more to lose...

... and I hope he's prepared. Obama is a policy wonk at heart, and he tends to get too detailed and a little long winded in debates. He thinks and communicates at a higher level than most voters, and that comes off as plodding sometimes. He's Hell on wheels in a prepared speech, but he's not a "great" debater - only "good".

Romney. on the other hand, is very good at standing there and smiling and regurgitating the talking points in sound-byte style - whether they are substantively accurate or not. And Romney knows the debates are his best shot at overcoming Obama's lead, so he's practicing and preparing.

And, these are not "debates". They are staged questions that allow for a lot of prepared or canned answers. I tend to agree with your husband - if Romney survives the debates relatively intact with no meltdowns and not dramatic gaffes, he'll be seen as reasonable and poised. If Obama doesn't mop up the floor with him, he will be viewed as a fail. I think Obama better be at the top of his game.

[awake]

20. We Have the most to lose

If Romney is seen to have won then the repuks could have a better chance of stealing the election and then we are all F*%#

[porphyrian]

21. The American people. n/t