Nate (538) has Biden 77, Trump 22

[USALiberal]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Joe Biden’s lead in national polls has narrowed to 7 percentage points, but he remains favored to win the election because we have a number of high-quality state polls that contain mostly good news for him. States like Minnesota, Arizona and Wisconsin show particularly strong numbers for Biden; however, don’t count President Trump out. He may be the underdog, but he still has a roughly one-in-four chance of pulling off an upset, and in states like Florida and North Carolina, he’s managed to narrow the gap considerably.

[malaise]

1. Get thee to the greatest page

RFN! ByeDon!

[mucifer]

2. I forget what did they have Hillary at just before the election? The good news is their

number has widened. It was 72% less than a week ago.

[obamanut2012]

3. 71.4/28.6

[Le Roi de Pot]

4. It was roughly similar in 2016.. About 25% for Trump

[mindfulNJ]

5. Shades of 2016

Doesn't mean sh*t. Vote.

[greenjar_01]

6. Can we all agree that this percentage projection is utterly useless, and probably some pseudoscience

[USALiberal]

7. Do you have a better source? Nt

[Bigredhunk]

8. :-)

Yes, of course we're all going to vote our asses off. But tell me reading things like this don't put a little pep in your step...esp on Monday mornings.

Thanks OP!

[SKKY]

9. Well, call me a Negative Nancy, but this looks just a bit too much like...

...2016 for my taste. And given we may not even know days, or even weeks after November 2 who the actual winner is, I just wish someone would put me in a medically induced coma until January after the inauguration.

[USALiberal]

11. I understand, still better than being at 22!

[SKKY]

12. No doubt. But still, fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice. We won't get fooled again.

Not sure who said that.

[USALiberal]

13. I'm nervous too! Nt

[Fiendish Thingy]

15. Big difference from 2016: Biden has 7 pt lead vs HRC's 2-3 pts.

According to 538, a 7 pt lead gives 99% odds of winning the electoral college, where a 2-3 pt lead only gives about 45-50% odds of winning.

Also, polls in 2016 oversampled college educated voters; this year, they are being weighted to include more responses from non-college voters.

[SKKY]

17. And that is exactly what my head is tell me. But my heart still tells me this is not a done deal...

...and we could be in for another huge disappointment. And I know we only have to overcome 77,744 votes. But still, it shouldn't even be this close and the fact that it is make me nervous.

[Cicada]

10. The bookies have it 53 to 46

Silver is smart. The market is smart. I would guess reality is in between.

[Yavin4]

14. The polls in 2016 were right, BUT they got the turnout wrong.

This is the big disconnect that some are making. Polls are one thing. Turnout is another. If supporters don't turnout, the polls will be wrong.

Hillary lost because turnout was down. See Milwaukee, WI in 2016 as an example.

I suspect that the polls are going to be more accurate this time because turnout will be up as we saw in VA this past weekend.

[USALiberal]

16. Thanks for this! Nt

[gulliver]

18. This