Some really good news just out from Marist - Biden +9 in Pennsylvania.

[RDANGELO]

Marist College
Biden 53

Trump 44

Almost no undecideds.


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

[PCIntern]

1. I have no doubt that Pennsylvania

Is blue.

The fervor on the ground here in Philadelphia and the surrounding counties is immense. Many many people recognize the insanity of this guy, and want him the fuck out. A number of people who vociferously voted for him last time quietly realize the error of their ways, and understand that it is an experiment that failed.

[badhair77]

3. I am relieved your area is so deeply blue. I'm in

South Central PA and the deplorables are out and they’re proud. The flags are flying and there are signs on most streets. It’s disgusting and wears on me. I’m hearing the vets as losers comments are putting a ding in his armor but I’m seeing little evidence here. These people are too dug in or gullible. An scared older woman told my friend at church that if Biden is elected we’ll all be communists. She should tell that poor soul she won’t drive her to her medical appointments if she doesn’t see the light. But I do take heart that Philadelphia is leading in the blue.

[catbyte]

7. Your friend should tell her there won't be any medical appointments to drive to if her Medicare is

eliminated. Social Security, too. Unless she's independently wealthy. Evil Communist programs anyway, so she should be relieved when Social Darwinism really kicks in.

[modrepub]

8. NE will be the decider

Clinton did not do well in the Scranton area. That's the area that IMO will decide where the state will fall. If Biden carries Luzerne, Northampton and Chester counties he will probably win the state.

I think this will be close. Turnout and getting all the votes counted is what PA Democrats should be focused on right now.

[Cosmocat]

12. Yep, it is going to be close

The polling just looks weaker than some of the other "battleground" states like Wisky and Michigan and even Arizona looks better right now.

We live in Central PA, and frankly their energy is borderline taliban here now, and a lot of people are trying to show heart, but most are keeping their heads down.

The Penn State vote is going to get derailed by Covid 19, IF students don't get sent home it is going to gunk up turnout. Gonna be the same with a lot of college vote.

Also, Rs are not eschewing traditional retail politics like Ds are. They are working the doors and doing a lot of community based events and face to face interactions.

Not saying he is not doing anything we have a really good local leader working for him, but Joe's campaign needs to recalibrate and put more emphasis and focus on PA.

Pa is the election.

[BumRushDaShow]

13. Not just the NE but the NW as well

In 2016, for the first time in who knows how long, Erie County voted red.

Even though the NE counties were close (Lackawanna County where Scranton is located DID go for Hillary), Erie County's flip to red was significant.

2016



2012

[grantcart]

19. And what about 2018?

On this election Republicans will turnout like 2016 and Democrats like 2018

[BumRushDaShow]

21. Yes - I am hoping the Democrats will come out like 2018

which will help over here in the east in purple counties like Chester and Delaware, if they can get some extra turnout, along with similarly purple Bucks County (which always flips back and forth).

Erie needs a visit though. I remember reading a few sad articles back in the 2016/2017 period that looked at what was going on there. One was here - https://www.pennlive.com/news/2017/01/they_said_erie_county_pa_would.html

I know everyone likes to look at Scranton as the "blue collar" part of PA but Erie is similar, but on the opposite corner of the state, and was seemingly ignored. The hope is that some things are starting to change there - https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jul/22/erie-pennsylvania-democrats-trump-supporters-election

[Cosmocat]

4. IDK

I think its pd close, it us NOT a 10 point lead.

Rs have a pretty clear registration advantage this year. I hate it, but their attacks on Gov Wolf have chipped the margin a good bit by rallying and adding to the base.

A number of the eastern area counties, like Bucks, have a net increase in R registration, along with central and western Pa.

[DarthDem]

5. Lol

Dead wrong.

Great poll for Biden. PA is looking good.

[BumRushDaShow]

9. The GOP in PA have never had a "registration advantage" (in modern times)

From the Excel spreadsheet on the PA Dept. of State website (as of 9/7/20) - https://www.dos.pa.gov/VotingElections/OtherServicesEvents/VotingElectionStatistics/Pages/VotingElectionStatistics.aspx (Voter registration statistics by county)

(copied/pasted excerpt)

Information as of 09/07/2020
By County

______________(D)________(R)_______(No Affil)______(Other)_______(ALL)

Totals:________4,125,889____3,376,463_____840,816________405,558_______8,748,726

The difference above between (D) and (R) registrations gives Democrats a 749,426 advantage.

What you do have is a good-sized "No-Affiliation" (i.e,. "Independent" ) and "Other" (usually Libertarian, which is probably the bulk, along with the Green Party, Constitution Party, and the newer Working Families Party).

I just saw an article yesterday about a lawsuit being brought by Democrats to have the Green Party candidates thrown off the ballot this year because after they filed, they suddenly switched candidates (which came after that last filing date). The article noted something that I had been posting about many times since 2016, how Jill Stein (who isn't running this year by the way) had garnered several times her normal number of votes, ending up with an amount that actually exceeded the difference in votes between Clinton and Drumpf -

2 Democrats are trying to knock Green Party presidential candidate Howie Hawkins off the ballot in Pennsylvania

by Chris Brennan, Updated: September 8, 2020- 3:46 PM


A Pennsylvania judge is mulling whether to bounce Green Party presidential nominee Howie Hawkins from the Nov. 3 ballot, due to a legal challenge that has the state Democratic Party’s fingerprints all over it.

Commonwealth Court Judge J. Andrew Crompton may rule as soon as Wednesday after a three-hour hearing Monday. The legal question: Did the Green Party meet the state deadline to file candidate affidavits for its presidential ticket?

The party initially put up Elizabeth Faye Scroggin for president and Neal Taylor Gale for vice president on Aug. 3, but replaced them a week later with Hawkins for president and Angela Walker for vice president.

The challenge focuses on the affidavits for Scroggin and Gale.

<snip>

Jill Stein, the Green Party’s 2016 presidential candidate, won 49,941 votes that year, or 0.8% of the ballots cast. Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in the state by 44,292 votes, a margin of 0.7%.

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/live/coronavirus-covid19-pa-nj-philadelphia-de-cases-updates-news-20200908.html

[Cosmocat]

10. That isn't what I was talking about

it isn't the total registrations, it is the new registrations.

https://www.penncapital-star.com/covid-19/post-primary-pa-republicans-notch-some-voter-reg-gains-analysis/

[BumRushDaShow]

11. It doesn't matter how many "new registrations" the GOP has

They are NOT going to suddenly get 800K "new registrations" to overtake the number of Democrats who are already registered.

There is a reason why we have a Democratic governor who did get re-elected in the midst of the Drumpf nightmare in 2018.

The issue here is for Democrats EVERYWHERE across the state to get out and vote however they do so, and not keep staring at Philadelphia, which has the most hurdles to try to actually vote, to "save the day".

There are many lazy suburban Democrats (like in Bucks County) who sit back and say - I live in a purple or red area, why bother?

[Cosmocat]

14. Given 45 won the state 4 years ago, yes, new registrations are a real issue

you do know that registrations are not votes, right?

Toomey and many other statewide shit stains have won in PA despite this historically big difference in D vs R registrations.

The POS won four years ago despite an even GREATER disparity of D registrations vs R registrations.

My point stands with the article that I posted where they have picked up more R registrations since the primary.

Do you think those people registered R to vote Biden?

He has picked up the margin since that time and to be honest they are people won't be picked up by polling.

Look, this is not binary, I am not saying 45 IS going to win.

I am saying it is a LOT closer than 9-10 points.

Because it is.

AND, i do agree with your point that people can't be complacent and wait for Philly to bail us out.

[BumRushDaShow]

17. If you dig deep into the results (I have many times... ack)

https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/General/SummaryResults?ElectionID=54&ElectionType=G&IsActive=0

you will see BIZARRE crap. For example, in the 2016 U.S. Senate race people ignored (D) Katie McGinty for (R) Toomey -



but then voting (D) for top of the ticket state candidates like former Montco Commissioner Josh Shapiro for State Attorney General (leaving "solid" and well-known (R) State Senator John Rafferty, Jr in the dust) -



I.e., there was a lot of "vote splitting"/"cross-over"/"only-top-of-the-ticket" voting going on in 2016 that made absolutely no sense.

I do agree that it is much closer than 9 - 10 points. Bet on it! But I think Biden is doing better than Hillary - even if due to the pervasive "sexism" that still exists in the electorate, that had a horrible impact on Hillary's run.

[Cosmocat]

18. YEP

the camel that broke Hills' back was sexism no doubt.

Overall I feel OK about it, but things in our part of the world with 45s is more than a little talibanish at this point.

I also know some of the state level Rs and their focus on this.

A big part of why the cranked up on Gov Wolf was to rally the base and pull in some new voters, and while he still is above 50%, he has dropped a lot in popularity, they have been successful in turning the state back around to get it closer to be able to be in striking range come November 3.

[BumRushDaShow]

20. The most important thing about Wolf

is that he'll be in office during the Census completion and the redistricting process.

That is something (having a (D) governor) that we didn't have during the 2010 Census, resulting in our gerrymandering nightmares coming true with Corbett. We just need to try to take back one of the legislative chambers that we lost in 2010, and it will also help.

They better leave that multi-generational German in the governor's office alone. He might appear to be a "laid back milquetoast libruuuulllll" but as a former businessman, he is no push-over.

I think one way to gauge is to look at what happened with the 2018 election. There are a few iffy Congressional seats that did flip to blue (after the map was redrawn) but I think those areas of the state will help if we can get a final push of D voters out.

[bucolic_frolic]

6. "an experiment that failed"

Someone should so run with that ad line in late October.

[Amishman]

15. I'm out in Lancaster county, Trumpism here is already exceeding 2016

That being said, I think PA will be blue this time - only because we ran Joe Biden. His deep ties to Scranton will shore up support in one of the key regions where we lost the state in 2016.

[PCIntern]

16. Yes exactly.

Those of us in Philly considered him our third senator because he was here in town more than any of our elected senators.

[JI7]

2. The poll shows he is tied with White Voters there