Watch the bottom of Texas ballots for political change -- not the top

[RandySF]

Don’t measure the political color of Texas by the wins and losses at the top of the ballot this year. The more interesting changes are local and regional, best viewed through congressional and legislative results.

A change in the political tide will fill the basement before it reaches the roof.

Those contests are less expensive, and they’re more politically efficient, too, concentrated in smaller areas where local trends are more important than overall statewide trends. Examples are everywhere: Democrats have won congressional and legislative seats even as the Republicans have swept every statewide election since 1994.

The state remained red in 2018, but Texas Democrats increased their congressional and legislative numbers.

That year’s statewide results were much tighter than they’ve been in previous elections. Challengers like Beto O’Rourke, Mike Collier and Justin Nelson came within a few percentage points of victory. But U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and Attorney General Ken Paxton prevailed, and the Republicans swept the top races.

Those results got a lot of attention in both parties, but the substantive changes were farther down the ballot. Democrats picked up two Texas congressional seats held by Republicans, setting the table for serious challenges in another six or seven districts in 2020.



https://www.texastribune.org/2020/08/19/political-change-texas-bottom-ballot/