Sam Wang----probably no convention bounces

[cally]

So I opened up this site and get a sense of panic here. What did I miss?

Anyway this tweet is reassuring to me: (Sam Wang does Princeton Election Consortium)


Sam Wang
@SamWangPhD
·
Aug 28
Replying to
@SamWangPhD
My take: probably these conventions aren't going to move opinion much at all. Maybe 1 point toward Biden; that's of course a guess.

Here's a sensitive indicator, surprisingly responsive considering it uses state polls only. Watch it in the coming days: …
Image

[Thekaspervote]

1. As was mentioned here earlier when your lead is in the 50+ range it wouldn't be expected that

Biden would get much of a bounce

[fierywoman]

2. Sam Wang is a hero of mine.

[Bleacher Creature]

4. Mine too, although he kind of took the easy way out when he ate the bug.

I think he ate like a chocolate covered cricket or something like that.

Hopefully he's tweaked his model so that he's not wrong again as it's looking good these days.

[fierywoman]

9. I think the only thing he got wrong the last time was not factoring in the cheating by Russia.

Ew! Any kind of bug is one bug too many!

[regnaD kciN]

3. The same Sam Wang who gave Hillary a 98% chance of victory on Election Day morning?

(Yes, everybody favored Clinton, but generally with about a 65%-71% chance, not 98%.)

Sorry, but if there's one polling prognosticator who currently deserves zero credibility, it's Wang.

[LymphocyteLover]

6. exactly what I was going to say-- he did us no favors and has no credibility to me

for much of the summer of 2016, he was saying Hillary had a 99% chance of wining.

[soothsayer]

5. Drumpf's trying to win by cheating, not by campaigning

Slowing mail, stopping drop boxes, intimidating voters, fighting and questioning every absentee ballot, interfering however he can— that’s his bread and butter. So I don’t know how anyone can predict a race that’s not actually happening. It’s scary as heck.

[LymphocyteLover]

7. he's campaigning too-- he's doing everything he can too win by any means necessary

[Awsi Dooger]

8. This idiot is still using state polls only

That's what led to his unmatched incompetence in 2016