"Romney must win two of the three: OH, VA, FL"

[cthulu2016]

"Romney must win two of the three: OH, VA, FL"

This is the conventional wisdom that Chuck Todd keeps repeating. And it is weird.

Romney has to win Florida. Period. Winning OH and VA while losing FL wouldn't give Romney a plausible path to 270. Florida is huge. 29 electoral votes. VA has 13 and OH has 18.

If you color Florida blue then Romney would have to win Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire and Wisconsin, or Michigan or some other good-sized solidly blue state, just to reach 272.

So the "two out of three" conventional wisdom is silly. If one of those two isn't Florida it's pretty hopeless.

Try it out. If Florida is blue there's no realistic way for Romney to get there.

http://www.270towin.com/

[Kolesar]

1. Ok, "Obama must win one of the three: OH, VA, FL" eom

[cthulu2016]

2. If Romney won all three then Obama would need

Nevada, Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire for a total of 272.

And If Obama won only VA, losing OH and FL then he would need any two of NV, CO, NH and Iowa

[Kolesar]

12. I got lost looking at the historical maps

California became Democrat with Clinton/1992 and has stayed that way.
It was interesting to look at how the Deep South voted as a block seemingly forever.
Hughes lost Ohio to Democrat Wilson and lost the race in 1916!

Tilden got screwed in 1876. SC electors voted against the Deep South in a gimmick to give the election to GOP-Hayes. IIRC, SC got readmitted to the union in the deal.

[Skidmore]

3. Or is it "Romney must steal at least two."

[closeupready]

7. That's really what we have to watch for.

Seriously.

[Arugula Latte]

13. They have the stealing blueprints for Florida and Ohio spread out on the campaign table.

[NightWatcher]

4. pissing off AARP is a great way to start

I love 270towin, its fun to see how many ways Obama can win and how R$ is screwed

[cr8tvlde]

14. Aha ... we AARPers now, Boomers, Vietnam Anti-War, Rabble Rousers of the Culture!

They are not "down" with the Romney-Ryan plan. They gave, via email, all members an e-mail and choices where to send that email...regarding don't touch our Medicare or Medicaid or Perscriptions. It was not partisan...but we all know it was. Go play with yourself, Mr. Ryan, not our benefits or our future.

I concur.

[Hatchling]

5. According to this graph on this site

http://www.pollingreport.com/

Obama has all three right now. Ironically it's a poll from Fox news.

I like this site because it pulls information from all the different polls and compiles them in one spot.

[BlueStreak]

6. EXACTLY. Todd is a moron. I have no idea why they continue to employ him.

He is to NBC what Cokie Roberts is to NPR. Neither one ever has any useful insight. All they do is repeat what they hear about the beltway.

And beyond that, Romney can win all three of those PLUS SC and still lose, as in this map:
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=AEa

[reformist2]

8. The truth is, Romney needs ALL THREE.

And even then, he still needs to hold on to NH.

[KharmaTrain]

9. Chuckie's Wet Dream...

...is to play Timmeh Russert on election night with the clipboard screaming "Virginia, Virginia". He lives with this obsession with Russert's ghost and being "The" election pundit. The only way that happens is if its a close race and he gets lots of face time. Another corporate mediatype who sees politics strictly as bloodsport...

[GreenTea]

10. The republican can steal those states - they've done it before - What short memories we have.....

Man, people really believe it's all locked up....

[jsmirman]

11. And the most important thing YOU can do? Is DO SOMETHING

please see this thread about how you can help:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021386468

GET INVOLVED IN OHIO AND FLORIDA!!!!!

(if you can)