Beyond God and Guns: Why the GOP May Lose the White Working Class
http://www.alternet.org/corporate-accountability-and-workplace/beyond-god-and-guns-why-gop-may-lose-white-working-class
What is the white working class, that much discussed, often criticized demographic group that many say will decide this election? You know them: Theyre bitter and cling to guns and religion, in the (otherwise sympathetic) words of 2008 candidate Barack Obama . Many are members of the 47 percent of Americans dependent on government derided by Mitt Romney , who the Republican insists will vote for Obama except many dont know theyre in that moocher class, and plan to vote for Romney.
Just in time comes a study by the Public Religion Research Institute , which confounds most stereotypes of the white working class, while confirming a couple. It may force us to give up our caricature of the last group of Americans its still politically safe to caricature. Theyre less conservative than most political analysts give them credit for if you leave out the South.
First, a few definitional ground rules. As someone whose book is often described as being about the white working class, and why it left the Democratic Party, Im painfully aware of the limitations of data and definitions of that much-discussed group. This study defines them as non-Hispanic white Americans without a four-year college degree who hold non-salaried jobs. Some polls define the white working class by income, but increasingly the more politically unique group and the most politically troublesome for Democrats is those without college degrees. Also: This is a new study and it doesnt track the same group over election cycles, so we cant know if their opinions have changed in the age of Obama, but its fascinating and useful nonetheless.
As most analysts have asserted, they are, as a group, trouble for Obama in mid-August Romney led 48-35 but there were interesting regional differences. Romney led Obama by a staggering 40 points in the South (62-22) while Obama actually led Romney 44-38 in the Midwest (hello, auto industry rescue?), and the two candidates were nearly tied in the West and Northeast. White working-class Protestants favor Romney 2-1, while Catholics are evenly split. Likewise, Romney clobbers Obama with men, but the candidates are tied for the votes of women. And younger white working-class voters support Obama.