'Planetary emergency' due to Arctic melt, experts warn

[Electric Monk]

NEW YORK — Experts warned of a "planetary emergency" due to the unforeseen global consequences of Arctic ice melt, including methane gas released from permafrost regions currently under ice.

Columbia University and the environmental activist group Greenpeace held separate events Wednesday to discuss US government data showing that the Arctic sea ice has shrunk to its smallest surface area since record-keeping began in 1979.

Satellite images show the Arctic ice cap melted to 1.32 million square miles (3.4 million square kilometers) as of September 16, the predicted lowest point for the year, according to data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado.

"Between 1979 and 2012, we have a decline of 13 percent per decade in the sea ice, accelerating from six percent between 1979 and 2000," said oceanographer Wieslaw Maslowski with the US Naval Postgraduate School, speaking at the Greenpeace event.

"If this trend continues we will not have sea ice by the end of this decade," said Maslowski.

While these figures are worse than the early estimates they come as no surprise to scientists, said NASA climate expert James Hansen, who also spoke at the Greenpeace event.

more
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jKKr0IRUKbR6Se7mFZu_qfcFWZTw?docId=CNG.fecc4bb8fd2384ef8b3d22269087bee4.1f1

[AnotherDreamWeaver]

1. kick and rec.

[RoccoR5955]

2. K & R

People should be advised of this.
Without the arctic ice, there will be severe changes to the Atlantic Ocean currents at the very least. When you add the methane that is tied up under the Arctic Ocean, you have just multiplied the problem by several orders of magnitude.

[Catherine Vincent]

3. What type of changes?

And why does that movie "Waterworld" comes to mind?

[DLnyc]

6. Um, I think sudden rise in sea levels is unlikely, but extreme storms and droughts,

increased number of and severity of floods, heat waves, even (paradoxically) monster snowstorms are not only likely but already occurring.

As the atmosphere heats up, as I understand it, it absorbs more moisture and becomes more volatile. Weather patterns change radically. Infrastructure that has built up over centuries of relatively stable climate are likely to have a very hard time adjusting to sudden changes.

In short, massive social disruption, I think is the main issue ahead.

[cstanleytech]

18. True however the ice melting isnt new and according to wiki it says and I quote

"There have been at least five major ice ages in the Earth's past (the Huronian, Cryogenian, Andean-Saharan, Karoo Ice Age and the Quaternary glaciation). Outside these ages, the Earth seems to have been ice-free even in high latitudes."

What I am more concerned about than the ice melting though is the pollution itself, that imo is a bigger concern because we can live with it being hotter we cannot live however if we cannot drink the water, grow the food and or catch it and we (humans) are fishing out the oceans faster than they can replenish.

[DLnyc]

23. We could adjust to hotter temperatures if they rose over centuries, but not over decades

If 'super' heat waves had been common for 100 years, our cities would have been placed and constructed in ways that could deal with them. A sudden (over 5 or 10 years) increase in super heat waves could kill thousands and thousands of people now (already happened) or even millions because we don't have time to move people to different latitudes, to build infrastructure that would carry the necessary energy for airconditioning, etc. We don't have time to move our entire farming infrastructure, including transportation routes, if growing areas change because of floods and/or droughts. We don't have time to move entire cities away from coasts battered by increased number of, and/or increased strength of, hurricanes. We don't have time to rebuild all our houses to withstand suddenly common and violent windstorms. And these are only effect we have begun to see already. Who knows what other novel furies might come up later?

Perhaps we have a genetically formed tendency to think in terms of gradual changes, since that is what we've had for millions of years of evolution. But there exists a possibility, as I read it, of 'non-linear' extreme and sudden changes if feed-back loops take off. For example, ice disappearing from the Arctic Sea in summer causes a FASTER change as the open water absorbs sunlight much better that white (reflecting) snow and ice. Or, much worse, heated Arctic water can cause methane deposits to bubble up which cause VERY RAPID heating, since methane, though short-lived, is 20 some times more effective at trapping infrared than carbon dioxide.

But the real problem, I am afraid, is not simply a changing temperature, but radically changed, and more extreme, weather patterns. Already we are seeing increased flooding, in some areas, and increased droughts, in others. Insurance companies have apparently had to change their calculations because these effects are VERY GENERAL (NOT just local and anecdotal). So far we can sort of shut our eyes and tell ourselves it's just a little anomaly, as happens with weather sometimes. But 1) it's not an anomaly -- it's statistically significant and 2) if a feed-back loop takes off than that statistically significant signal could morph into massive disaster very rapidly.

But the real damning point, for me is this: Imagine for a moment that by some weird fluke we had some way to absolutely, positively state exactly what was going to happen, some sort of future-viewing camera that gave absolute, undeniable proof that we have to change what we are doing or face massive disaster. Can you honestly say that our current political-economic structure would then change it's priorities and behavior to prevent disaster? I, for one, don't believe it would make a bit of difference. Our current political-economic structure is, in my opinion, simply not up to the job, regardless of the evidence. We evolved a great technology, but socially we are too primitive to make the simplest change (limiting the power of corporate entities) to save our own skin.

Sorry to rant, but it's something I think about a lot.

[cstanleytech]

40. I never said it would be without problems, I was speaking in the long term and in the long term

yes we can deal with the rising temperature by changing how we build.
For example buildings with thick walls made of earth or even berm homes which are partially underground would provide a great deal of protection from alot of the heat and the same for the weather, we can adapt.
Wont be easy though but it can be done.

[Zoeisright]

42. It won't be done.

Because this country is reactive, not proactive. With the housing crisis we have now, do you really think money is going to be poured into making more houses?

[cstanleytech]

44. We as in "humanity" not "We" as in our country, big difference.

[librechik]

43. hotter and wetter in some areas, dryer in others

flooding and drought and extreme/unusual storm patterns all year long, everywhere.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

4. And there won't be any whales from the future to save us.

[Speck Tater]

5. Well, we should think about this for another 6 or 8 years.

We wouldn't want to act hastily. After all, there is still a lot of difference of opinion and controversy about whether this is caused by humans or is just a natural cycle.



And while nothing gets done (inevitable given the world political situation and the need for economic growth outweighing all other considerations) we will reach the point where nothing can be done, and we will witness at the very least the demise of industrial civilization, and at the very worst, the extinction of the human race. A conservative, middle of the road sort of guess would be the collapse of civilization, a die off of about 90% to 95% of the human population, and a return to a hunter-gatherer way of life for the few survivors. And that's optimistic because it assumes we will not go completely extinct.

And before you reply "Oh, we can do this, and we can do that..." No. We can't do this, and we can't do that, be cause the corporations and governments of the world will not allow us to do anything really meaningful.

[DLnyc]

7. very true, I think.

Unless somehow we (globally) establish a form of government independent of the monopoly corporations and concentrated wealth in general. Which is a very very long shot indeed.

So i agree, realistically, looks like nothing will get done.

Until society collapses and then, ironically, monopoly corporations and concentrated wealth will have no power at all, since, it seems to me, bank accounts will be pretty useless at that point.

And maybe the surviving stub of humanity will have better luck the next time around, I suppose. . .

[dixiegrrrrl]

9. I predict countries will act as swiftly about this planetary emergency

as they have about the global danger created by Fulishima.

[CrispyQ]

34. And you will be right.

I just read that they are finding radiated seaweed along the north western coast up into Canada. If I were in my 20s I'd think about moving to the southern hemisphere.

[abumbyanyothername]

10. I am pretty sure that those who voluntarily scale back

the most will live the longest.

The time is now to move back to Grandpa's farm in Iowa, and put most of that in food forest. The more connected one is to the global economy, the worse off one will be.

[ldf]

8. i'm thinkin', more along the lines of

the day after tomorrow...?

[happerbolic]

21. Along with the drastic swing...

... all that extra reflective moisture in the atmosphere being jetted even extra higher into the stratosphere will have in the mid run might bring about the opposite super freeze in much shorter time than the earth would have naturally phased itself through. Snowball earth has happened several times before in earth's past

We suck so bad when it comes to realizing the effects to the planet when unearthing such hazards in such a short time frame the earth would naturally expose in due time. Fracking (release stored eons of minerals & chemicals to industrial pushed exposure) but hey,,, We all love and gotta' have our product...huh..?

Why not just stay busy and employed maintaining the products we already have? Too Frances Perkins?

[Blue_In_AK]

11. I guess we here in the north

will have to adapt to breathe methane ... And maybe grow some gills, too, if this rain keeps up.

http://www.adn.com/2012/09/19/2631928/wind-heavy-rains-take-toll-on.html

[defacto7]

12. K'd and R'd

[Selatius]

13. Without sea ice, the polar bears will die. They need the ice as hunting platforms.

There have been warnings, yet nobody listens.

[CrispyQ]

35. Did you see that tragically sad video of a skinny mother polar bear

fighting a male bear for food? It was fairly recent. Her cub was in the background. The scientist said that generally a female would never confront a male like that. He also commented that she was the skinniest bear with a cub that he'd ever seen. I cried throughout the day & am crying now, thinking of it.

We are such a wretched species.

[Selatius]

45. Oh, I saw one even worse.

There was a skinny mother polar bear with one cub left. The other one had died of starvation. The cameraman who was filming the two just happened to be filming when the last cub started having seizures due to lack of nutrition and a failing body. That cub died soon thereafter from what the reports said. Mother wasn't really able to do anything except just stand by and watch her cub die.

http://www.biologicaldiversity.org/species/mammals/polar_bear/starving_bears_video.html

The video is at the link. I warn you that you may not wish to see the video if you're not up for it; it's a sobering reminder of the misery that's found all over this world. The music drove me over the edge.

[CrispyQ]

46. I can't watch.

The other vid has haunted me for days.

I've been reading "An Unnatural Order" by Jim Mason. It's been mind expanding. I'm just over half way through. If we don't change the way we view our place in nature, we're doomed to end up here again, assuming we survive.

[JRLeft]

14. Most people simply do not care. This is the problem. Right along with greed and religion.

[Care Acutely]

15. K & R

[sakabatou]

16. So by 2030, no north pole ice?

As for the south pole... possibly ice there may have melted off, leaving only land?

[SleeplessinSoCal]

17. time to charge deniers with crimes against humanity.

[Comrade_McKenzie]

19. We're totally fucked if we have to negotiate a solution in this geopolitical climate... nt

[tinrobot]

20. Basically, we're screwed.

To fix this, we would need to move completely beyond our fossil fueled industrial society.

Not gonna happen in 10-20 years.

Enjoy the planet while you can, and move north.

[Egalitarian Thug]

25. Unless it triggers another mini-ice age, then move south, but avoid the coasts in

either case. Unfortunately, our models still aren't good enough to tell us which way it will go, but go it will.

I'm pretty sure we passed the tipping point a decade or two ago.

[lunatica]

28. If the models just keep going to the natural conclusion of things as they are now

they'll end up showing us a scenario like the surface of Venus. There will not be a magical point at which are continued pollution will no longer affect the outcome. There will no longer be a cut-off point where things stabilize. Things will just continue to get worse exponentially. We've already caused changes. Those changes will now cause other changes by simply being there. There will be secondary fallout which is caused by the changes we are causing to happen. The domino effect.

[CrispyQ]

36. We are truly in uncharted territory.

And like another poster said, ill equipped to deal with it in the current geopolitical climate.

Personally, I think the human species is FUBAR.

[jsmirman]

22. It's maddening and horrifying

it's cold comfort to think their might be an afterlife.

But if there is, I should surely hope that the unspeakably callous and evil party operatives who DARE to present this as a political issue will roast on a spit in hell.

[Berlum]

24. The Republicans will just lie hard and harder as facts come to light

One thing we know: Republicans do all they can to eraticate the truth...

[tavalon]

26. unforeseen by whom?

There are a handful of educated people who continue to be global warming deniers and a shitload of stupid people but stupid people don't educate themselves so sometimes the foreseen can seem unforeseen..

[HereSince1628]

30. I think the rapidity of the melt in the Siberian Sea was unforeseen by everyone

People were building forecasts for ice-free Arctic staying within historic experience. That's typical of model builders who incorporate mathematical mechanisms that interpolate rather than extrapolate. The effect of the storm on Siberian sea ice produced an effect that was quite outside of experience and not predicted by climate models.

You're absolutely correct that everyone paying attention has realized the melt was happening, and most everyone has seen an ice-free Arctic outcome as a foregone conclusion, but mostly 'we' accepted the notion of more or less gradual loss over the next 25-75 years.

[tavalon]

27. So much for kicking the can down the road

It really truly isn't the next generation's problem. It's going to get hairy in our own lifetimes. Seems fairer that way, actually. We did it, we need to pay the consequences.

[jsmirman]

32. This summer being in DC

it really felt like I was experiencing the beginning of the end times and everyone was just acting like it was a little hotter than normal.

It's like a lobster not knowing it's being boiled.

[CrispyQ]

37. You're right, it does seem fairer.

I remember seeing a Dennis Miller routine on TV. He was mocking global warming & ended by saying (paraphrased) 'Even if it does happen, why do I care about what happens to my offspring 5 or 6 generations from now?'

Several years ago there was an online quiz, "How Big is Your Eco Footprint?" A bunch of us at work took it. One co-worker bragged when her results stated that it would take 7.2 Earths to support her family's lifestyle if everyone on the planet lived the way they did. She was quite proud of it. I was the smallest in the group at 2.1 Earths, & I was horrified.

When status is tied to something, you have to change that.

[hatrack]

29. Look! Over there! It's Lindsay Lohan!

nt

[Marrah_G]

31. Very few will listen

Those who do aren't the ones in a position to try and slow it down.

Smart folks will take a look at the forecasts, check the maps and resources and plan to move to a less impacted area.

[riderinthestorm]

33. Completely, utterly depressing any way you look at it.

I grieve for those coming behind me - my kids and their peers, their children.

What a terrible place we're leaving for them.

This morning I was admiring the beautiful world we live in as I went about my morning chores.... Reading about its imminent destruction is just tremendously sad.

[CrispyQ]

38. I hear you.

[riderinthestorm]

39. Afternoon kick and a hug back atcha!

[deutsey]

41. Same here...this is so depressing especially when I think of my kids