Ample evidence that excess deaths account for more than twice COVID-attributed estimates (NYT)

[hlthe2b]

Nationwide, 200,700 more people have died than usual from Mar 15 to Jul 25, according to CDC estimates, which adjust current death records to account for typical reporting lags..54,000 higher than the official count of coronavirus deaths for that period.”

Link to tweet

Tracking the Real Coronavirus Death Toll in the United States

See state by state graphs at the NYT website

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html?referringSource=articleShare

Nationwide, 200,700 more people have died than usual from March 15 to July 25, according to C.D.C. estimates, which adjust current death records to account for typical reporting lags. That number is 54,000 higher than the official count of coronavirus deaths for that period. Higher-than-normal death rates are now widespread across the country; only Alaska, Hawaii, Maine and West Virginia show numbers that look similar to recent years.

Our analysis examines deaths from all causes — not just confirmed cases of coronavirus — beginning in mid-March when the virus took hold. That allows comparisons that don’t depend on the availability of coronavirus tests in a given place or on the accuracy of cause-of-death reporting. What it shows is that some places have seen staggering death tolls, while a few states have experienced fewer deaths, but enough to clearly differentiate this year from a typical one.

New York City, an early epicenter of the U.S. outbreak, has so far experienced the most extreme increase in deaths, which surged to seven times the usual number during the peak of its coronavirus outbreak. But as the pandemic has spread across the country, New York is not the only place where the death counts are far above normal levels.

Over time, the number of states with deaths at least 10 percent above normal levels has grown, and includes states in not just the Northeast, but also the South, West and Midwest.

[Baitball Blogger]

1. So, our actual death toll from Covid is 360,000?!!!

[Mariana]

2. That is not what it says. nt.

[Baitball Blogger]

3. Okay. I think I've got it.

There's statistically 50,000 more deaths this year in the specific time period, and the article alludes that these are Covid deaths that were not diagnosed. So, 160,000 plus 50,000 = a potential of 210,000 actual deaths due to Covid.

[hlthe2b]

4. Don't diminish the factor that COVID-19 is playing as a contributing cause.

That is exactly what the Trump ilk would have you do.

[SiliconValley_Dem]

6. it says the desth toll is conservatively estimated at 210,000 which is significantly higher than

official reported figures. We can assume continued undercount for some time as the cases explode and more desths result which aren't recorded as COVID in real-time.

[LizBeth]

5. Then also look at the ridiculous increase of pneumonia deaths along with excess deaths I think it is

higher. I have seen excess deaths with incredible increase but also pneumonia.

[dixiegrrrrl]

11. DeSantis in Fla. esp. ordered using pneumonia as cause of death in Covid cases

Pretty sure some red states did same.

Also, confusingly so, is that while my died of lung cancer, the CAUSE of death was listed as pneumonia,
which I was told is common. Cancer gave her the pneumonia that caused her death.
(And this was over 30 years ago)

Which also explains why we hear of so many very elderly dying of pneumonia.

So, yeah, given that there are so many more of cases that are not reported, stands to reason about deaths not being accurately reported.

[LizBeth]

12. +1

[ProfessorGAC]

7. Insurance Company Actuaries Estimate 40%

They were stuck on 30% for a couple months, but in the last week or 10 days, they've raised it up to a bit under 40% over declared COVID deaths.
They've got skin in the game, so I trust their numbers.

[uponit7771]

9. +1, cause heart disease and cancer aren't working from home this year. Jus dam, we could've had 300

... deaths like S Korea but we're stuck with a guy bragging he passed a dementia tesrt.

[ProfessorGAC]

10. Just Bragging?

Or, bragging AND lying about it?

[MoonlitKnight]

8. Does this also account for deaths prevented by stay at home?

During the peak of stay at home, deaths dropped from normal causes like accidents, other diseases, elective surgery, etc. Has that been taken into account?

We have 50,000 more deaths than expected, plus we have less deaths from usual causes should equal many more than 50,000 due to COVID-19.